On exact D-optimal designs with 2 two-level factors and n autocorrelated observations

In this paper we consider the exact D-optimal designs for estimation of the unknown parameters in the two factors, each at only two-level, main effects model with autocorrelated errors. The vector of the n random errors in the observed responses is assumed to follow a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)). The exact D-optimal designs seek the optimal combinations of the design levels as well as the optimal run orders, so that the determinant of the information matrix of BLUEs for the unknown parameters is maximized. Bora-Senta and Moyssiadis (1999) gave some conjectures about the exact D-optimal designs based on their experience of several exhaustive searches. In this paper their conjectures are partially proved to be true.Received: January 2003 / Accepted: October 2003Partially supported by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 91-2115-M-008-013.Supported in part by the National Science Council of Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant NSC 89-2118-M-110-003.     

基于AR模型的存款利率水平实证研究

本文建立了通货膨胀率、储蓄存款、消费对存款实际利率长期影响的AR模型,并通过实证检验发现四大现象:实际利率与名义利率的巨大差别;通货膨胀率是影响实际利率的最重要因素;储蓄存款和实际利率存在异象;消费膨胀促进加息。建议制定利率水平应更加及时,加速利率市场化改革,利用利率工具来抑制流动性过剩与通货膨胀。     

基于时间序列的山东省人均GDP分析与预测

人均国内生产总值综合考虑了一个地区经济总量和人口基数,能够较好地反映一个地区经济增长和居民经济生活水平。本文以1978—2013年的山东省人均GDP数据为样本,用时间序列分析方法建立自回归预测模型。根据预测,山东省“十二五”期间人均GDP呈现出先慢后快的增长特点,可能原因是前期受金融危机影响较大,后期影响逐渐减弱。政府应保持宏观经济政策连续性稳定性,不断扩大开放,实施创新驱动,加快转方式调结构促升级,深化国民收入分配体制改革,实现经济持续健康发展和社会和谐稳定。     

Forecasting the term structures of Treasury and corporate yields using dynamic Nelson-Siegel models

We extend Diebold and Li’s dynamic Nelson-Siegel three-factor model to a broader empirical prospective by including the evaluation of the state space approach and by using nine different ratings for corporate bonds. We find that the dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor AR(1) model outperforms other competitors on the out-of-sample forecast accuracy, especially on the investment-grade bonds for the short-term forecast horizon and on the high-yield bonds for the long-term forecast horizon. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor state space model, however, becomes appealing on the high-yield bonds in the short-term forecast horizon, where the factor dynamics are more likely time-varying and parameter instability is more probable in the model specification.     

Evidence on Simulation Inference for Near Unit-Root Processes with Implications for Term Structure Estimation

The high persistence of interest rates has important implicationsfor the preferred method used to estimate term structure models.We study the finite-sample properties of two standard dynamicsimulation methods—efficient method of moments (EMM) andindirect inference—when they are applied to an first orderautoregressive (AR[1]) process with Gaussian innovations. Whensimulated data are as persistent as interest rates, the finite-sampleproperties of EMM differ both from their asymptotic propertiesand from the finite-sample properties of indirect inferenceand maximum likelihood. EMM produces larger confidence boundsthan indirect inference and maximum likelihood, yet is muchless likely to contain the true parameter value. This is primarilybecause the population variance of the data plays a much largerrole in the EMM conditions than in the moment conditions foreither indirect inference or maximum likelihood. These resultssuggest that, under Gaussian assumptions, indirect inference(if practical) is preferable to EMM when working with persistentdata such as interest rates. EMM's emphasis on the populationvariance strongly enforces stationarity on the underlying process,so this same reasoning suggests that EMM may be preferable insettings where stability and stationarity are important anddifficult to impose.     

Oracle AR多主体复制方式在移动通信彩铃业务中的实施

介绍了Oracle AR多主体复制方式的概念、原理、数据复制机制和应用前景,阐述了其在源 数据库和目的数据库之间进行数据同步的实施部署,并给出了运用于移动彩铃 业务中的实施方案。该方案成功满足了移动彩铃业务需求,保证了数据的安全性和可靠性。     

面板数据分析中含两阶段自回归残差的单因素误差分量模型研究

在面板数据分析中残差自相关使得参数估计更加复杂。本文提出了含两阶段自回归残差的单因素误差分量模型,并推导了在这一模型中如何计算广义最小二乘估计量及其相关性质。     

Drastic innovations and multiplicity of optimal licensing policies

Considering the licensing of a drastic cost-reducing innovation by an outside innovator in an n-firm Cournot oligopoly, we show that when the innovator uses combinations of fees and royalties, there are either n − 1 or n optimal licensing policies.     

智慧电厂环境监测与风险预警系统研究与应用

为满足水电厂环境监测与风险预警高效化、智能化需求,设计了一套监测预警系统.通过对水、船、物、人等数据的感知,保障了水域可视化以及工厂安全.利用智能视频设备与AI智能分析平台对大坝关键位置进行实时监控,报告水位和流速情况,完成漂浮物告警弹窗与船舶智能分析;基于智慧消防物联网平台与AR全景可视化系统,实现仪表智能读取与告警联动.智慧电厂实测结果与现场勘察一致,能够为水域管理及故障识别提供全面的数据支撑.     

Issues in fitting theoretical and measurement models in marketing

This article reviews the applications of linear structural equation modeling in business. It further examines the extent to which measurement models are constructed to fit theory models. The consensus appears to be that modelers intuitively use congeneric models without considering the appropriateness of such use. The other measurement models, such as tau equivalent or parallel form models are used very little in the literature. In addition, there is no use of common factor measurement models. The article also examines the extent to which various indices of fit are used in modeling marketing phenomena. Although chi square tests of model fit are used most frequently, the study documents increasing use of yet other indices, which perhaps more accurately reflect the extent to which the model fits.