Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR

We estimate a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) for the UK economy and assess its performance in forecasting GDP growth and CPI inflation in real time relative to forecasts from COMPASS, the Bank of England’s DSGE model, and other benchmarks. We find that the BVAR outperformed COMPASS when forecasting both GDP and its expenditure components. In contrast, their performances when forecasting CPI were similar. We also find that the BVAR density forecasts outperformed those of COMPASS, despite under-predicting inflation at most forecast horizons. Both models over-predicted GDP growth at all forecast horizons, but the issue was less pronounced in the BVAR. The BVAR’s point and density forecast performances are also comparable to those of a Bank of England in-house statistical suite for both GDP and CPI inflation, as well as to the official Inflation Report projections. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of similar studies for other advanced economies.     

Strategic knowledge sharing in Bayesian games

This paper provides a model for the study of direct, public and strategic knowledge sharing in Bayesian games. We propose an equilibrium concept which takes into account communication possibilities of exogenously certifiable statements and in which beliefs off the equilibrium path are explicitly deduced from consistent possibility correspondences, without making reference to perturbed games. Properties of such an equilibrium and of revised knowledge are examined. In particular, it is shown that our equilibrium is always a sequential equilibrium of the associated extensive form game with communication. Finally, sufficient conditions for the existence of perfectly revealing or non-revealing equilibria are characterized in some classes of games. Several examples and economic applications are investigated.     

An objective Bayesian analysis of common stochastic trends in international stock prices and exchange rates

This paper uses Bayesian methods to analyze unit root and cointegration properties of two different finance data sets. Avoiding the use of subjective prior information, the paper surveys and utilizes several different objective Bayesian methodologies in an investigation of common stochastic trends in international stock markets and in spot and forward exchange rates for several different countries.     

Bayesian MCMC Mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci in a Half-sib Design: a Graphical Model Perspective

Graphical models provide a powerful and flexible approach to the analysis of complex problems in genetics. While task-specific software may be extremely efficient for any particular analysis, it is often difficult to adapt to new computational challenges. By viewing these genetic applications in a more general framework, many problems can be handled by essentially the same software. This is advantageous in an area where fast methodological development is essential. Once a method has been fully developed and tested, problem-specific software may then be required. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of a graphical model approach to genetic analyses by taking a very simple and well-understood problem by way of example.     

户籍歧视对劳动报酬差异的影响

在我国，户籍歧视是形成劳动力市场分割的重要原因，它不但通过阻碍劳动力流动造成城乡收入差异，也会促成农民工和城镇工人之间劳动报酬的差异。本文利用中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）多年的数据，对我国户籍歧视影响劳动报酬差异的程度进行计算和分析。结论表明，近几年户籍歧视现象并没有明显改观，政府在制定相应政策时，仍需关注这方面的问题。     

Bayesian life test planning for the Weibull distribution with given shape parameter

This paper describes Bayesian methods for life test planning with Type II censored data from a Weibull distribution, when the Weibull shape parameter is given. We use conjugate prior distributions and criteria based on estimating a quantile of interest of the lifetime distribution. One criterion is based on a precision factor for a credibility interval for a distribution quantile and the other is based on the length of the credibility interval. We provide simple closed form expressions for the relationship between the needed number of failures and the precision criteria. Examples are used to illustrate the results.Received: October 2002 / Revised: March 2004     

Input- and Output-Oriented Technical Efficiency of Ukrainian Collective Farms, 1989–1992: Bayesian Analysis of a Stochastic Production Frontier Model

We propose estimation of a stochastic production frontier model within a Bayesian framework to obtain the posterior distribution of single-input-oriented technical efficiency at the firm level. All computations are carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The approach is illustrated by applying it to production data obtained from a survey of Ukrainian collective farms. We show that looking at the changes in single-input-oriented technical efficiency in addition to the changes in output-oriented technical efficiency improves the understanding of the dynamics of technical efficiency over the first years of transition in the former Soviet Union.