Borrowing constraints,parental altruism and welfare

This paper investigates the welfare impact of a borrowing constraint that does not allow children to borrow against future income. In an overlapping-generations model with altruistic parents, the inability to borrow increases children’s savings and parental transfers, raising children’s welfare as well as average welfare in the short-run and in the long-run.Additionally, the borrowing constraint raises aggregate savings and, hence, physical capital. Consequently, when prices are flexible, the positive welfare impact of the constraint is higher.     

Home equity lines of credit and the unemployment rate: Have unemployed consumers borrowed themselves into the next financial crisis?

Some economists argue the recent recovery has been so meager because many consumers have lost their main source of income and maxed-out their home-equity borrowings. Further, banks that were able to make consumer loans did so with less security because home prices fell so dramatically. This paper argues that at least part of that recovery story is purely anecdotal and, in fact, incorrect. In spite of the precipitous decline in home prices, the original price increases were so large that many homeowners still have/had adequate equity in their homes to borrow. The paper presents evidence that the average quarterly increase in aggregate home equity line of credit (HELOC) lending after housing prices began their decline is, statistically, no different than the average quarterly increase in HELOC lending before housing prices began their downward trend. The evidence also suggests that increased HELOC lending during the recession is not correlated with higher unemployment.     

How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data

Housing is a major component of wealth. Since house prices fluctuate considerably over time, it is important to understand how these fluctuations affect households’ consumption decisions. Rising house prices may stimulate consumption by increasing households’ perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. This paper investigates the response of household consumption to house prices using UK micro data. We estimate the largest effect of house prices on consumption for older homeowners, and the smallest effect, insignificantly different from zero, for younger renters. This finding is consistent with heterogeneity in the wealth effect across these groups. In addition, we find that regional house prices affect regional consumption growth. Predictable changes in house prices are correlated with predictable changes in consumption, particularly for households that are more likely to be borrowing constrained, but this effect is driven by national rather than regional house prices and is important for renters as well as homeowners, suggesting that UK house prices are correlated with aggregate financial market conditions.     

源语文化内涵的传递与归化、异化策略的使用

语言中的特有文化内涵一直是困扰译者的一大难题，甚至有的被译者认为根本是不可译。本文指出通过适当的文化置换和文化借用，以读者为取向，以归化和异化策略的平衡使用为手段，是解决文化断层的有效途径。     

Asset Revaluations and Assessment of Borrowing Capacity

Prior research has found support for contracting, political cost and information asymmetry explanations for managements’ decision to revalue non-current assets. This study proposes that asset revaluations occur to signal available borrowing capacity via an increase in collateral values at the time of increases in secured debt and that the economic benefits associated with an asset revaluation will be greatest for firms when they are experiencing times of declining cash flows from operations. Results imply that firms that have undertaken an asset revaluation are more likely to be experiencing declining cash flows from operations than firms that have not revalued. This study also investigates whether the incidence of valuations coincides with increases in levels of secured borrowings due to lenders’ demands for current values of assets offered as collateral. The evidence indicates that firms are more likely to record an asset revaluation if they have increased their secured borrowings, and that most non-year-end revaluations emanate directly from contracting with lenders.     

Saving under uncertainty: A bivariate non-expected utility approach

We adopt the multivariate non-expected utility approach proposed by Yaari [1986] to provide a characterization of the comparative statics effects of greater risk aversion and of mean-preserving increases in risk on saving and borrowing in the presence of income and interest rate risk.We show that in Yaari's model, it is possible to extend the applicability of the Diamond and Stiglitz [1974] and Kihlstrom and Mirman [1974] (DSKM) single-crossing property to establish a relationship between greater risk aversion and saving (or borrowing) on the basis of the individual's ordinal preferences as long as the two risks are independent. We also demonstrate that the comparative statics effects of a joint mean-preserving increase in random income and interest rate on saving and borrowing can be determined by an extension of the DSKM single-crossing property.     

家庭个体特征对居民借款行为的影响——来自中国家庭的经验证据

金融市场对于支持和鼓励家庭借款进而刺激家庭消费起着愈发重要的作用。作为家庭消费金融意识的重要体现,居民借款行为正在受到更多的关注。本文认为居民家庭借款行为包含两层含义:1.家庭是否有借款;2.家庭借款渠道的选择。利用CFPS调查项目中京沪粤三省市家庭借款行为的微观数据,本文运用Logit模型和Probit模型对影响居民家庭借款行为的家庭个体特征进行了实证分析,解析了不同家庭个体特征对借款行为的影响情况,并得出有关结论与启示。     

THE STOCK MARKET, HOUSING AND CONSUMER SPENDING: A SURVEY OF THE EVIDENCE ON WEALTH EFFECTS

Abstract.  This paper examines the time-series and micro-econometric evidence on the relationship between stock and house prices and consumer spending. The time-series studies distinguish between short-run and long-run links between consumption, income and wealth. They allow us to identify which variables adjust to restore the long-run equilibrium in the case of a shock, and to determine the time taken by the adjustment process. The micro-econometric literature improves our understanding of the link between wealth and expenditure and distinguishes among the alternative hypotheses – of direct wealth effect, common causality and collateral channel – that have been proposed to explain this relationship. The relationship between wealth and consumer spending appears to be strong, but there is some disagreement as to its size and nature. Furthermore, there appear to be some important differences across countries, which should be allowed for by policy makers when appraising the policy implications of a change in asset prices.     

Scarce collateral and bank reserves

If collateral for bank loans is scarce and, if as a result, access to secured loans is restricted, the allocation of resources is inefficient. In anticipation of future borrowing constraints, individuals over-invest in collateralized types of capital, and consume and invest inefficiently low levels while they are borrowing constrained. The dual counterpart of this misallocation of resources is inefficiently low interest rates. In this situation, bank reserves play a positive welfare role by adding liquidity to the economy and by increasing not only bank lending rates, but also, paradoxically, bank deposit rates. As a result, in economies with scarce collateral the optimal reserves–requirement ratio is positive.     

On local indeterminacy and endogenous cycles in Ramsey models with heterogeneous households

It is well-known that endogenous cycles can occur in Ramsey models with heterogeneous households and borrowing constraints. In this note, we address the issue of robustness in the more general case of endogenous labor supply and we explain the occurrence of local indeterminacy under progressive taxation.