客户信用评级体系的校准度检验研究

利用多种统计量对客户信用评级体系进行校准度检验,以对其准确性做出定量评估。同时,使用这些统计量对由两种不同方法构造的信用评级进行了实证对比检验,结果表明,校准度检验能够对客户信用评级的准确性做出有效评估。     

中日韩自由贸易区的贸易流量和福利效应分析:一个局部均衡的校准方法

校准方法作为一种确定数理经济模型中的变量和参数的手段之一,在贸易政策的建模研究中得到广泛的应用.本文以局部均衡为基础,利用中日韩三国自1990～2003年共14年的贸易额及相关数据建立校准模型,并对拟议中的中日韩自由贸易区做出比较静态分析,从产业层面来模拟中日韩自由贸易区建成后所可能带来的福利效应.分析结果表明,中日韩三国建立自由贸易区会增加彼此的国民福利水平,并会对未加入贸易协定的其他东亚国家产生影响.因此,在东亚形成更为广泛的自由贸易安排从区域合作的角度来看是一种更佳的合作方式.     

Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much Can Multiple Equilibria Explain?

This paper asks whether the income gap between rich and poor nations can be explained by multiple equilibria. We explore the quantitative implications of a simple two-sector general equilibrium model that gives rise to multiplicity, and calibrate the model for 127 countries. Under the assumptions of the model, around a quarter of the world’s economies are found to be in a low output equilibrium. We also find that, since the output gains associated with an equilibrium switch are sizeable, the model can explain between 15 and 25% of the variation in the logarithm of GDP per worker across countries.     

Why England? Demographic factors, structural change and physical capital accumulation during the Industrial Revolution

Why did England industrialize first? And why was Europe ahead of the rest of the world? Unified growth theory in the tradition of Galor and Weil (2000, American Economic Review, 89, 806–828) and Galor and Moav (2002, Quartely Journal of Economics, 177(4), 1133–1191) captures the key features of the transition from stagnation to growth over time. Yet we know remarkably little about why industrialization occurred much earlier in some parts of the world than in others. To answer this question, we present a probabilistic two-sector model where the initial escape from Malthusian constraints depends on the demographic regime, capital deepening and the use of more differentiated capital equipment. Weather-induced shocks to agricultural productivity cause changes in prices and quantities, and affect wages. In a standard model with capital externalities, these fluctuations interact with the demographic regime and affect the speed of growth. Our model is calibrated to match the main characteristics of the English economy in 1700 and the observed transition until 1850. We capture one of the key features of the British Industrial Revolution emphasized by economic historians — slow growth of output and productivity. Fertility limitation is responsible for higher per capita incomes, and these in turn increase industrialization probabilities. The paper also explores the availability of nutrition for poorer segments of society. We examine the influence of redistributive institutions such as the Old Poor Law, and find they were not decisive in fostering industrialization. Simulations using parameter values for other countries show that Britain’s early escape was only partly due to chance. France could have moved out of agriculture and into manufacturing faster than Britain, but the probability was less than 25%. Contrary to recent claims in the literature, 18th century China had only a minimal chance to escape from Malthusian constraints.     

SZJ-1三轴智能校验台标准装置测量不确定度的评定方法

简要介绍了建立SZJ-1三轴智能校验台标准装置的必要性及原理框图。详细论述了其测量不确定度的评定方法。并对标准装置的测量不确定度进行了验证。     

Can negative interest rates really affect option pricing? Empirical evidence from an explicitly solvable stochastic volatility model

The profound financial crisis generated by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011 have caused negative values of government bond yields both in the USA and in the EURO area. This paper investigates whether the use of models which allow for negative interest rates can improve option pricing and implied volatility forecasting. This is done with special attention to foreign exchange and index options. To this end, we carried out an empirical analysis on the prices of call and put options on the US S&P 500 index and Eurodollar futures using a generalization of the Heston model in the stochastic interest rate framework. Specifically, the dynamics of the option’s underlying asset is described by two factors: a stochastic variance and a stochastic interest rate. The volatility is not allowed to be negative, but the interest rate is. Explicit formulas for the transition probability density function and moments are derived. These formulas are used to estimate the model parameters efficiently. Three empirical analyses are illustrated. The first two show that the use of models which allow for negative interest rates can efficiently reproduce implied volatility and forecast option prices (i.e. S&P index and foreign exchange options). The last studies how the US three-month government bond yield affects the US S&P 500 index.     

Structural transformation and productivity growth in India during 1960–2010

In this paper, we examine the role of structural change and sectoral productivity growth in explaining the aggregate productivity of India relative to the United Sates during 1960–2010. We set up a simple two sector general equilibrium model and calibrate it to fit the structural transformation of United States. Our calibrated model for India highlights the relative importance of agricultural productivity growth in explaining its slow process of catching up in terms of aggregate productivity. We show that India could have progressed at a much faster rate and closed a substantial part of its aggregate productivity gap if its agricultural sector had grown at a rate at par with the United States. It is India's relative productivity growth in the non-agricultural sector that explains all the recent success in its closing the aggregate productivity gap with the United States. We also found that an elimination of relative distortion in agriculture in India could result into a modest improvement in the aggregate labour productivity.     

Executive compensation: a calibration approach

Summary. We use a version of the Grossman and Hart principal-agent model with 10 actions and 10 states to produce quantitative predictions for executive compensation. Performance incentives derived from the model are compared with the performance incentives of 350 firms chosen from a survey by Michael Jensen and Kevin Murphy. The results suggest both that the model does a reasonable job of explaining the data and that actual incentives are close to the optimal incentives predicted by theory. Received: August 12, 1997; revised version: October 27, 1997     

Design-Based Properties of Linear Calibrated Estimators of a Finite Population Total

We extend Godambe's famous nonexistence theorem to classes of linear calibrated estimators. We also propose a new method for comparing sampling strategies in the design‐based framework without recourse to simulation.     

Building multivariate Sato models with linear dependence

The increased trading in multi-name financial products has required the development of state-of-the-art multivariate models. These models should be computationally tractable and, at the same time, flexible enough to explain the stylized facts of asset log-returns and of their dependence structure. The popular class of multivariate Lévy models provides a variety of tractable models, but suffers from one major shortcoming: Lévy models can replicate single-name derivative prices for a given time-to-maturity, but not for the whole range of quoted strikes and maturities, especially during periods of market turmoil. Moreover, there is a significant discrepancy between the moment term structure of Lévy models and the one observed in the market. Sato processes on the other hand exhibit a moment term structure that is more in line with empirical evidence and allow for a better replication of single-name option price surfaces. In this paper, we propose a general framework for multivariate models characterized by independent and time-inhomogeneous increments, where the asset log-return processes at unit time are modeled as linear combinations of independent self-decomposable random variables, where at least one self-decomposable random variable is shared by all the assets. As examples, we consider two general subclasses within this new framework, where we assume a normal variance-mean mixture with a one-sided tempered stable mixing density or a difference of one-sided tempered stable laws for the distribution of the risk factors. Particular attention is given to the models' ability to explain the asset dependence structure. A numerical study reveals the advantages of these new types of models.