A forecast simulation analysis of the next‐generation DVD market based on consumer preference data

Just as standards wars over formats had characterized VCRs upon introduction to the market, the next‐generation DVD standards war between Blu‐Ray and HD‐DVD lasted 6 years before Blu‐Ray won the contest. Beginning with stated preference data drawn from a structured conjoint survey conducted before Blu‐Ray became the de facto standard of the next‐generation DVD format, we estimate consumer preferences on digital video players. A Bayesian mixed‐logit model is used and market share simulations are conducted under various scenarios based on the estimated parameters from Bayesian mixed‐logit model to surmise the future South Korean digital video‐player market. Results indicate that consumers feel that network size and title availability are more important than hardware‐related facets of the product, such as definition and storage capacity. The level of title availability and price of the Blu‐Ray player for Blu‐Ray's dominance over DVD will dramatically vary by the penetration rate of DVD players.     

企业能力、产业竞争力、比较优势与政府作用--也论中国激光视盘播放机工业的发展启示

关于比较优势和政府作用的片面理解,将对产业竞争力的塑造和国家政策的制定形成危险的错误导向.针对比较优势理论在解释产业竞争力的源泉上依然具有的巨大效力和科学性,中国政府应谨慎防范用产业政策和技术政策去人为创造竞争优势的"竞争优势陷阱".正是通过中国激光视盘播放机工业发展经验的分析证明,技术相对落后国家的企业要在开放市场条件下获得竞争优势,特别需要充分利用自己现阶段存在于自然资源和劳动力方面的比较优势.中国DVD工业目前被征收专利费的处境,更清楚地说明,即使是新科等领头企业目前也还不能定义自己的核心竞争力为技术能力和产品创新,而要进一步通过比较优势打造竞争优势.创造一个自由、开放和充分竞争的环境,让遵循客观规律的企业获得强大的自生能力,是各国政府的首要作用.     

对技术出口中专利壁垒的私力救济与公力破解——以DVD专利池纠纷案为切入点

在国际技术进出口中目前存在着大量的非关税壁垒措施,发达国家利用这些措施来遏制发展中国家的发展与竞争.就中国近年来看,技术出口中被国外设置专利壁垒的情况相当严重.文章以DVD专利池纠纷案为切入点,探讨应对技术出口中的专利壁垒问题,不仅需要企业自身的私力救济,同时需要政府和相应组织的公力破解.     

Timing Movie Release on the Internet in the Context of Piracy

Offering movies on the Internet is one way of combating the issue of online movie piracy, although the tradeoff is the cannibalization of the more revenue-generating channels. Given this tradeoff and the rather unique “staggered window distribution” mechanism followed by the movie industry, this article addresses the problem of when the studio owner should release the movie online to maximize the entire revenue stream of that movie. A general modeling approach that assumes an exponential demand function and fixed release times in the remaining channels is provided. Detailed illustration using three different movie types demonstrates that a high revenue-generating movie should be released online just prior to its home video release, while the online release of an average or below-average movie should coincide with their withdrawal from the theaters. Sensitivity analyses of the results are also displayed and give the circumstances under which a different online release time is warranted. The analysis suggests, among other things, that if a movie has an excellent opening strength and is able to sustain its revenues quite well, it would be more profitable to release the movie online a few weeks before it is withdrawn from the theaters. Additionally, the standard outcomes generated by the model are found to be sensitive to any online per-unit price change.     

面对DVD压缩碟：正版音像企业创新能力缺失的根源与对策

本文针对DVD压缩碟的出现这一特殊现象,分析了为什么早已被正版企业掌握的新技术,没有被为顾客创造价值的正版音像制作企业采用,而率先被盗版光碟生产企业发现、生产和收获的价值的原因, 以及在技术、市场创新等事关企业发展命运方面应采取的措施。     

Piracy or promotion? The impact of broadband Internet penetration on DVD sales

The Internet provides copyright holders with new sales and promotional channels for their content, while also providing consumers with new opportunities to illegally obtain free copies of this content. Unfortunately, disentangling these two effects is extremely difficult.In this paper we attempt to disentangle these two effects by applying fixed effects and first difference models to a new dataset quantifying changes in broadband Internet penetration and DVD sales at a local level from 2000 to 2003. We then compare our results to those reported in Liebowitz (2008), who uses similar models in a similar time period on a similar product category: music CDs.Unlike Liebowitz, who finds a strong negative impact of broadband penetration on music sales, our results show that increased broadband penetration leads to a significant increase in DVD sales. Using the most conservative results, 9.3% of the $14.1 billion increase in DVD sales during our study period can be attributed to increased broadband penetration. One interpretation of these results is that the difference arises from differences in the ability to pirate these two types of content: while Internet music piracy was easy and rampant from 2000 to 2003, Internet movie piracy was difficult and of generally low quality in this time period. If this interpretation is true it would suggest that, in the absence of piracy, the Internet has an overall strong positive impact on media sales.     

New Release: An Empirical Analysis of VHS/DVD Rental Success

This paper studies movie rental revenue in the home video industry. Using a cross-section of the top 100 films from 2001 as a sample, domestic Video Home System (VHS) and Digital Versatile Disc (DVD) rental revenues are tested for responsiveness to independent variables including: box office gross revenue, production budget, aggregate critic rating, Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) rating, genre, star power, word-of-mouth information, total award nominations, and economic variables. Results for the Ordinary Least Squares regressions reveal positive impacts of box office revenue, stardom, Restricted (R) and Parents Strongly Cautioned (PG-13) MPAA ratings, and some genres on VHS and DVD gross rental revenues. The positive and significant coefficient on the income variable for the DVD regression and the uniform lack of significance for the award, critic rating, and word-of-mouth variables are of particular interest.