美国是“负责任”的实力下降霸权吗?——兼论中国必须掌握国际关系理论研究的话语权

随着美国的可持续发展能力和经济总量的相对下降,巨大的军费开支、难以缩小的财政赤字、自我变革能力的弱化阻碍着其重新振兴,其政府的国内治理能力下降。相应地,美国的软实力不断下降和所主张的发展模式对其他国家的吸引力也在减弱。从中长期来看,美国实力的相对下降已是一个客观趋势。作为世界唯一霸权,处在实力下行过程中的美国是否是一个负责任的国家,这是一个关系到全局的问题。更重要的是,在西方国际关系理论的主导下,理论框架和议题设置完全由西方决定,这类问题往往被遮蔽掉了。处在国力上升中的中国,在国际关系理论中如不能设置自己的议题,而只顺着西方设置的议题研究,将无法有效维护自己的国家利益,也难以争取国际秩序变革中的主动权。     

Pyrrhic victories – anticipating the closedown effect

Previous studies with empirical evidence on social responsible driven closedowns have identified a productivity increase effect that occurs during the process of organizational closedowns, known as the closedown effect. Our proposition is that this effect can be anticipated as a consequence of a closedown decision. Encountering four different non social responsible closedown cases, of various durations, we statistically test this proposition. Further, we identify a need for an analytical distinction of the phases of the closedown process, in terms of the primary ‘advanced notice period’ and the secondary ‘countdown period’. Based on the analysis, and with this distinction, we are able to conclude that the productivity increase effect can be anticipated during the countdown period. The comparably longer time frame in the Studding case provides the strongest support for our proposition. From the analysis we suggest hypotheses for further research.     

突破性创新与既有企业战略变革：组织衰落及冗余资源的作用

探讨了突破性创新对既有企业战略变革的影响,检验了组织衰落在突破性创新和战略变革之间关系的中介作用,考察了冗余资源的调节作用。基于233个高新技术企业的实证研究发现,突破性创新对既有企业战略变革具有显著正向影响。其中,组织衰落起到部分中介作用;冗余资源不但正向调节突破性创新和既有企业战略变革之间的关系,而且增强了组织衰落的中介作用,存在被调节的中介效应。     

管理者能力与资本市场稳定

管理者能力是管理者有效率地利用企业资源创造价值的能力。本文以企业股价大幅下跌风险为切入点系统分析了管理者能力对资本市场稳定的影响。研究发现:管理者能力能够显著抑制企业未来股价大幅下跌的风险,具有市场稳定效应。这种稳定效应主要体现在管理者隐藏坏消息动机较强和隐藏坏消息空间较大(内部缺乏大股东治理和外部制度环境水平较低)的企业。进一步研究发现,管理者能力主要通过降低企业经营风险和提高企业治理水平等路径缓解企业未来股价大幅下跌的风险。本文丰富了管理者能力和股价下跌风险的研究,还对如何合理利用企业家资源维护我国资本市场平稳健康发展提供了重要的现实证据。     

"非平衡化与不平衡"——中国近代农村经济

在对以往“衰退论”、“增长论”、“内卷论”和“停滞论”进行回顾和评论的基础上,作者提出了中国近代农村经济“非平衡化与不平衡”的观点,认为中国近代农村经济的最大特点就是其与国际经济和国内工商业经济发展之间越来越紧密的联系,虽然在某一时期、某一地区或某一部门,“衰退论”、“增长论”、“内卷论”和“停滞论”都曾有其一定的真实性,但是“衰退”、“增长”、“内卷”或“停滞”本身并不足以全面反映当时中国农村经济的发展状况。中国传统农村经济“旧平衡的瓦解和新平衡的缺失”才是当时中国农村经济的整体发展趋势和主要特性。     

Structural breaks in international tourism demand: Are they caused by crises or disasters?

It is recognised that the tourism industry is vulnerable to some form of crises or disaster. However, despite the attention given to the nature and consequences of tourism crises and disasters, there is a gap in the literature regarding the ex-post detection of these events. In this article, we estimate both the number and date of structural breaks in international tourism arrival series for 25 countries and Madeira Island using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test. We compare the date of tourism crises and disasters to the dating of these structural breaks. We observe that tourism crises and disasters are largely consistent with the dates of breaks. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the tourism industry related to the correct allocation of negative shocks in international tourism arrival demand to crisis or disaster phenomena.     

Why do successful companies fail? A case study of the decline of Dunlop

This article examines the internal and external factors that contributed to the decline of Dunlop. For much of its history Dunlop operated in a protected home market or instigated strategies to restrict competition. This enabled Dunlop to dominate the British tyre industry. The complacency and inertia of management was exposed by a number of external jolts that produced radical environmental changes. Management failed to develop appropriate strategies which led to large losses in an industry suffering from overcapacity. Plant closures and the divestment of the European tyre operations were implemented to reduce company debt. This turnaround strategy proved to be a temporary respite as Dunlop was acquired by BTR.     

Generalizations regarding the growth and decline of manufacturer and store brands

Stimulating growth or staving off decline in market share are core objectives for brand managers, including retailers who now offer store brands (SBs). This study identifies how changes in brand penetration and repeat-purchase loyalty accompany changes in brand share. We examine 1093 changes in brand share over 63 packaged goods categories in the UK from 2003 to 2007, covering both growth and decline. Two measures of repeat purchase loyalty are used—annual purchase frequency (PF) and share of category requirements (SCR). Our results show that brand share growth is accompanied by greater change in penetration than in loyalty, at a ratio of approximately 3:1. This finding generalizes across brand type, loyalty measure, retailer SB or manufacturer brand (MB), category purchase frequency, category type, and initial brand share. However, while brand share growth is accompanied by stronger changes in SCR than PF for MBs; the reverse is the case for SBs. For MB decline, both penetration and SCR change are significant correlates. However for SBs, the decline in brand share happens predominantly in loyalty—more strongly in SCR, followed by PF. Therefore, both brand types need to focus on building penetration to grow. While MBs also need to prevent light buyers from lapsing, SBs need to pay more attention to retaining heavy buyers to avoid repertoire demotion.     

对沧州地面沉降的新认识

本文通过对泥炭层的物化性质的研究，提出了沧州市的地面沉降有可能为泥炭层的氧化所致。     

全球经济危机对我国出口贸易的影响

首先定性地分析了发达国家的经济发展和我国出口贸易十多年的走势,探究不同时期两者之间的变化是否趋同;然后选取美国、欧元区的国内GDP和商品相对价格指标,建立这两个因素对我国的出口贸易的影响程度的计量方程;随后,建立两个不同的VAR模型,第一个模型考察我国出口贸易和美、欧实体经济间的长期协整关系,运用脉冲响应函数分析外部冲击的滞后效应;针对当前金融危机造成货币紧缩,各国均采取一系列的刺激经济恢复的手段,在第二个VAR模型中,选取了较为代表性的外部因素——欧美的信贷政策和居民消费,以及作为国际资本流动因素的我国FDI,并运用脉冲响应函数考察这些政策因素对我国出口贸易产生的长期影响。最后根据实证结论提出政策建议。