应该用哪一个模型来描述中国货币市场利率的动态变化

本文论证了双曲模型是描述中国货币市场利率动态变化的最佳单因子利率模型。由极大似然估计可以得到单因子利率模型的边际密度函数。双曲模型的边际密度和非参数估计得到的边际密度函数拟合较好，其表现远远优于几个常见的利率模型（CIR、CKLS和AG模型）。与较一般的Ait-Sahalia模型相比差别很小，但参数形式得到简化，似然比检验也支持这一点。双曲模型在刻画利率的均值回复特征方面还克服了AG模型的不足。     

Identifying airline cost economies: An econometric analysis of the factors affecting aircraft operating costs

This paper provides the results of an econometric analysis of the influences of airline characteristics on the average operating costs per aircraft movement. The analysis combines a comprehensive selection of airline-output variables, airline-fleet variables, and airline-market variables. The results confirm the existence of economies of density, economies of load factor, economies of aircraft utilisation and economies of aircraft size. The paper does not provide evidence of economies of scale, economies of stage length or economies of fleet commonality. Furthermore, airlines that additionally operate full freighters, airlines that are members of a worldwide alliance and airlines that operate a multi-hub system face higher average operating costs per aircraft movement. Surprisingly, the regression results demonstrate that airlines that use newer aircraft have higher average operating costs per aircraft movement, suggesting that ownership costs (depreciation and leasing costs) of new aircraft outweigh the increasing maintenance costs of old aircraft. Finally, the results show that airlines that have a dominant position at their hubs or bases have higher operating costs per aircraft movement, implying that the absence of serious competitive pressure enables airlines to charge higher ticket prices and, with that, leads to a limited focus on cost savings.     

The impact of the social servicescape,density, and restaurant type on perceptions of interpersonal service quality

The purpose of this study was to investigate how density in the servicescape affects the three interpersonal dimensions of Stevens et al., (1995) DINESERV conceptualization of service quality (responsiveness, assurance, and empathy) across various restaurant types. Using the framework of information processing theory, it was predicted that when a customer uses density to evaluate anticipated service quality, the information processing style will vary depending on the restaurant context. For fine dining restaurants and sports bars, it was predicted that customers will use heuristic processing, but would use systematic processing when evaluating a family casual restaurant. A 3 (contextual service norms) × 2 (built density) × 2 (human density) between subjects factorial design was employed. The results identified a three-way interaction between human density, built density, and restaurant type, suggesting that the type of restaurant does indeed matter when considering how density impacts potential customers’ perceptions of a restaurant.     

Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage

We analyze the relationship between forecaster disagreement and macroeconomic uncertainty in the Euro area using data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1999Q1–2018Q4 and find that disagreement is generally a poor proxy for uncertainty. However, the strength of this link varies with the dispersion statistic employed, the choice of either the point forecasts or the histogram means for calculating disagreement, the outcome variable considered and the forecast horizon. In contrast, distributional assumptions do not appear to be very influential. The relationship is weaker in subsamples before and after the outbreak of the Great Recession. Accounting for the forecasters’ entry to and exit from the survey has little impact on the results. We also show that survey-based uncertainty is associated with overall policy uncertainty, whereas forecaster disagreement is related more closely to the expected fluctuations on financial markets.     

非洲铁路发展需求分析与市场开发策略

中资企业面向非洲铁路市场,多以"广覆盖"的形式投入开发,一定程度上造成了资源浪费。为优化中资企业在非洲铁路市场布局以及资源配置,在分析非洲铁路发展现状、铁路网发展影响因素基础上,基于铁路系统需求度、铁路发展需求度分析非洲铁路发展需求,提出了非洲大陆49个国家高、较高、中、低4个等级的铁路发展需求度,同时提出非洲铁路市场开发策略建议,即:优化非洲铁路市场开发资源配置,分区域实施铁路市场开发及项目建设,创新合作模式、拓宽资金来源。     

Oil price shocks and economic growth: The volatility link

This paper shows that oil shocks impact economic growth primarily through the conditional variance of growth. Our comparison of models focuses on density forecasts. Over a range of dynamic models, oil shock measures and data, we find a robust link between oil shocks and the volatility of economic growth. We then develop a new measure of oil shocks and show that it is superior to existing measures; it indicates that the conditional variance of growth increases in response to an indicator of the local maximum oil price exceedance. The empirical results uncover a large pronounced asymmetric response of the growth volatility to oil price changes. The uncertainty about future growth is considerably lower than with a benchmark AR(1) model when no oil shocks are present.     

技术多元化、发明者网络嵌入与军民融合企业技术创新效率

采用随机前沿模型对2015—2020年中国内地107家军民融合企业技术创新效率进行测算,并基于军民融合企业专利数据构建技术多元化、发明者网络嵌入（结构洞和网络密度）等指标。运用社会网络分析与多元线性回归方法,实证分析技术多元化、发明者网络嵌入及两者交互作用、结构洞与网络密度的互补关系/平衡关系对军民融合企业技术创新效率的影响。结果发现：技术多元化、结构洞及两者交互作用对军民融合企业技术创新效率具有正向影响;网络密度及其与技术多元化的交互作用对军民融合企业技术创新效率具有负向影响;网络密度和结构洞的互补关系会抑制军民融合企业技术创新效率提升,但两者在军民融合企业内部的平衡关系能够促进军民融合企业技术创新效率提升。     

基础设施、拥挤性与城市生产率差异——来自中国267个城市市辖区数据的实证研究

针对我国城市空间结构和劳动生产率差异明显的现状,对我国267个地级城市的基础设施情况进行指标评价,并根据评价结果实证分析了基础设施水平、城市拥挤性对城市生产率的影响。研究结果表明,基础设施和就业密度对我国城市生产率的积极作用,同时两者的合力对城市生产率具有较强的驱动作用。     

引致需求、路网密度与中国道路运输业营运绩效评价——基于DEA模型与面板Tobit的两阶段分析

本文基于产出导向的BCC-DEA模型对中国道路运输业在2000-2009年期间的营运效率进行了测算,并采用受限随机效应面板Tobit模型检验了各种外部环境因素对于道路运输业营运效率的影响;此外,还结合基于非参数DEA的Malmquist生产率指数,对中国道路运输业全要素生产率进行了动态评价。实证结果显示,纯技术效率较低是中国道路运输业营运效率较低的主要原因,而且突发性外部环境冲击是道路运输业营运效率出现较大幅度波动的重要因素;样本期间内道路运输业全要素生产率呈现出较为平稳的增长态势,这主要得益于道路运输业较为明显的技术进步;单位面积生产总值等引致需求因素以及公铁基础设施等路网密度因素,均是影响道路运输业营运效率的重要因素。     

Reconfiguration of the conceptual landscape: a tribute to the service logic of Richard Normann

This article is a tribute to the late Richard Normann, whose call for a “service logic” (Normann, Reframing Business: When the Map Changes the Landscape, Wiley, Chichester, p. 99, 2001) both parallels and enriches service-dominant (S-D) logic (Vargo and Lusch, J. Mark, 68:1–17, 2004a). Like Vargo and Lusch, Normann shifted the focus of the offering from an output to a process of value creation and perceived the firm as an organizer of this process, with the customer as a co-producer, rather than a receiver of value. He also argued that offerings are “frozen knowledge,” similar to Vargo and Lusch’s contention that the basis of exchange is applied operant resources (service) and suggested that the ‘dematerialization’ of resources increases their ‘liquidity’, which allows increased “density” for value creation. Thus, he suggested that firms need to “reframe business”—rethink the logic of value creation—to reveal opportunities in reconfiguring the value constellations of which they are part. This tribute explores these and other similarities and differences between Normann’s work and the evolving S-D logic.