Data-based mechanistic modelling and forecasting globally averaged surface temperature

The main objective of this paper it to model the dynamic relationship between global averaged measures of Total Radiative Forcing (RTF) and surface temperature, measured by the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), and then use this model to forecast the GTA. The analysis utilizes the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to the modelling and forecasting where, in this application, the unobserved component model includes a novel hybrid Box-Jenkins stochastic model in which the relationship between RTF and GTA is based on a continuous time transfer function (differential equation) model. This model then provides the basis for short term, inter-annual to decadal, forecasting of the GTA, using a transfer function form of the Kalman Filter, which produces a good prediction of the ‘pause’ or ‘levelling’ in the temperature rise over the period 2000 to 2011. This derives in part from the effects of a quasi-periodic component that is modelled and forecast by a Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) relationship and is shown to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index.     

国际贸易发票货币的选择——兼论人民币国际化

一国货币作为国际贸易发票货币取决于货币汇率的波动性、该国在占据的出口市场份额以及该国出口产品的差异性程度。随着人民币汇率形成机制更加灵活和弹性化及在国际贸易中采用本币计价以回避汇率风险,人民币成为国际贸易发票货币有期可待。     

Estimating Willingness to Pay for Improved Water Quality in the Presence of Item Nonresponse Bias

This article deals with the problem of item nonresponse in contingent valuation surveys using a payment-card method, by applying a grouped-data sample-selection estimation technique that is capable of imputing the missing values conditional upon a respondent's decision to answer a willingness-to-pay question. The advantage of the technique lies in its ability to utilize all of the information in the sample, permitting a more efficient estimation in the presence of item nonresponse bias. The major determinants of willingness to pay appear to be household income, number of children, education, perception of existing water quality, and identification with environmental issues.     

工程项目风险的应对措施及其管理

工程项目建设过程中存在风险因素较多,通过对工程项目风险概念的分析,重点介绍了常用的工程项目风险应对措施以及制定项目风险应对计划的风险管理工作,为项目风险管理提供参考。     

Self-enforcing international environmental agreements with a stock pollutant

In this paper the stability of an International Environmental Agreement (IEA) among N identical countries that emit a pollutant are studied using a two-stage game. In the first stage each country decides noncooperatively whether or not to join an IEA, and in the second stage signatories jointly against nonsignatories determine their emissions in a dynamic setting defined in continuous time. A numerical simulation shows that a bilateral coalition is the unique self-enforcing IEA independently of the gains coming from cooperation and the kind of strategies played by the agents (open-loop or feedback strategies). We have also studied the effects of a minimum participation clause finding that for this case a self-enforcing IEA just consists of the number of countries established in the clause.JEL Classification: C73, D62, Q28 Corresponding author : Santiago J. RubioThis paper is based on chapter four of Begoña Casinos Ph. Dissertation. Financial support from the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología under grant BEC2000-1432 and Fundación BBVAis gratefully acknowledged. We also appreciate the helpful comments of three anonymous referees, whose suggestions improved the paper. Regarding any remaining inadequacies, the usual caveat applies.     

论房地产信贷发展现状、风险及防范

房地产业是国民经济的重要组成部分,为扩大内需,房地产业的潜力将得到充分挖掘,如何确保我国房地产业的持续、稳定、高速增长成为经济理论和实践工作者的一个重要议题.     

MA公司物流成本的会计核算探析

以MA公司为例，对MA公司会计核算现状进行了探讨，当前MA公司物流成本会计核算内容、核算科目设置、核算信息管理等还存在诸多缺陷，制约了MA公司对物流成本的科学管理，也在一定程度上影响了MA公司的发展，从MA公司物流成本的会计核算内容丰富、会计核算科目及账户设置、会计核算的信息管理等角度提出了对策建议。     

Users expectations and the need for differential beach management frameworks along the Costa Brava: Urban vs. natural protected beaches

Beaches are social–ecological systems where plainly physical, ecological, social and economic dimensions interact, providing several functions and services leading to improved human well-being. Although these systems can provide several protective, recreational and natural functions, only recreation has been traditionally prioritized by managers. This has led to the homogenization of beach management practices, which are poorly adapted to beach settings and beach users. While public participation was highly encouraged, decision-making has traditionally been done by a single stakeholder following a strict hierarchic order. In two antagonistic beaches (natural protected vs. urban) we assess and compare users’ expectations and perceptions that could suggest the necessity of a differential management. Behind an apparent homogeneity, significant differences were detected between these two antagonistic beaches. Although certain normal preferences were common in both beaches, natural attributes were the priority in the natural protected setting, as well as facilities in the urban one. However, the influence of traditional mass tourism model on users’ expectations was undeniable. Particular management frameworks for beaches with singular natural characteristics are necessary. A special emphasis on education and information is needed, as a cornerstone for a sustainable use of these social–ecological systems.     

An options pricing approach to ramping rate restrictions at hydro power plants

This paper investigates the impact of ramping rate restrictions imposed on hydro operations to protect aquatic ecosystems. The optimal ramping decision is specified as an optimal control problem which results in a Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation. Electricity prices are modelled as a regime switching stochastic process. The optimal control is determined by solving the HJB equation numerically using a fully implicit finite difference approach with semi-Lagrangian time stepping. The paper focuses on the effect of ramping restrictions on a hydro plant׳s value and optimal operations, and provides an analysis of which factors cause ramping restrictions to have a greater or lesser impact on profitability. It is shown that hydro plant value is negatively affected by ramping restrictions, but the extent of the impact depends on key parameters which determine the desirability of frequent changes in water release rates. Interestingly for the case considered, value is not sensitive to ramping restrictions over a large range of restrictions. The results point to the importance of accurately modelling electricity prices in gauging the trade offs involved in imposing restrictions on hydro operators which may hinder their ability to respond to volatile electricity prices and meet peak demands.     

What drives the effectiveness of industrial clusters? Exploring the impact of contextual,structural and functioning determinants

This study examines how contextual, structural and functioning characteristics of industrial clusters influence their effectiveness. We develop a conceptual framework that identifies potential influencing factors, validate the factors statistically, and estimate the factors’ impact on cluster effectiveness. Our results show that among the important determinants of cluster effectiveness are long-term planning security and procedural trust among the cooperating firms (contextual conditions), formalized rules and sustainable structures (structural elements), and clear goals and tasks (functioning characteristics). However, the results also reveal that some determinants assessed as important in the literature do not seem to have a positive impact on effectiveness. Our results not only modify general assumptions in cluster research concerning the drivers of cluster effectiveness, but also assist firms and policy-makers in conceptualizing successful new clusters.