服务业结构升级能够推动产业发展吗？——基于有效结构变化指数（ESC）的实证分析

推动服务业发展与产业结构升级是我国经济高质量发展的重要举措。本文创新性地将有效结构变化指数(ESC)应用于我国2008—2017年29个省份的服务业内部结构升级的影响效应分析,研究发现:ESC的影响效应主要通过延迟效应与加速效应传导,但两者在对服务业不同发展指标上的影响呈现差异;我国服务业ESC可推动服务业增加值与服务业就业人数的增长,但会抑制服务业劳动生产率与服务业平均工资的增长;生产性服务业与高端服务业ESC是驱动服务业增加值与服务业就业人数增长的重要来源,生产性服务业与非高端服务业ESC则会显著抑制服务业劳动生产率与服务业就业人数增长。与发达国家相比,我国在服务业内部结构升级上还有巨大空间与潜力,可通过结构持续优化来有效发挥结构配置效应,促进产业发展,并推动经济增长。     

Ranking journal quality by harmonic mean of ranks: an application to ISI statistics & probability

As the preponderance of journal rankings becomes increasingly more frequent and prominent in academic decision making, such rankings in broad discipline categories is taking on an increasingly important role. The paper focuses on the robustness of rankings of academic journal quality and research impact using the widely‐used Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science citations database (ISI) for the Statistics & Probability category. The paper analyses 110 ISI international journals in Statistics & Probability using quantifiable research assessment measures (RAMs), and highlights the similarities and differences in various RAMs, which are based on alternative transformations of citations and influence. Alternative RAMs may be calculated annually or updated daily to determine when, where and how (frequently) published papers are cited (see Chang, McAleer and Oxley (2011a, b, c) , Chang, Maasoumi and McAleer (2012) ). The RAMs are grouped in four distinct classes that include impact factor, mean citations and non‐citations, journal policy, number of high quality papers, and journal influence and article influence. These classes include the most widely used RAMs, namely the classic 2‐year impact factor including journal self citations (2YIF), 2‐year impact factor excluding journal self citations (2YIF^*), 5‐year impact factor including journal self citations (5YIF), Eigenfactor (or Journal Influence), Article Influence, h‐index, PI‐BETA (Papers Ignored – By Even The Authors), 5YD2 (= 5YIF/2YIF) as a measure of citations longevity, and escalating self citations as a measure of increasing journal self citations. The paper highlights robust rankings based on the harmonic mean of the ranks of RAMs across the 4 classes. It is shown that focusing solely on the 2YIF of a journal, which partly answers the question as to when published papers are cited, to the exclusion of other informative RAMs, which answer where and how (frequently) published papers are cited, can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal quality, impact and influence relative to the more robust harmonic mean of the ranks.     

新产业模式:效率型供应链的响应性问题解决之道

随着全球化竞争和信息时代的到来,来自供求两方面的不确定性持续增强已成为产业发展的一般趋势。市场环境复杂性的提高,使得适应于稳态环境的效率型供应链的需求响应性差的问题更加突出,本文通过其与响应型供应链的三方面对比,揭示出响应型供应链的相对优势实质上来自其代表的新产业模式趋势,并得出应用新产业模式改造效率型供应链作为其响应性问题的解决之道。