Escape dynamics: A continuous-time approximation

We extend a continuous-time approximation approach to the analysis of escape dynamics in economic models with constant gain adaptive learning. This approach is based on the application of the results of continuous-time version of large deviations theory to the linear diffusion approximation of the original discrete-time dynamics under learning. We characterize escape dynamics by analytically deriving the most probable escape point and mean escape time. The approximation is tested on the Phelps problem of a government controlling inflation while adaptively learning a misspecified Phillips curve, studied previously by Sargent (1999) and Cho et al. (2002) (henceforth, CWS), among others. We compare our results with simulations extended to very low values of the constant gain and show that, for the lowest gains, our approach approximates simulations relatively well. We express reservations regarding the applicability of any approach based on large deviations theory to characterizing escape dynamics for economically plausible values of constant gain in the model of CWS when escapes are not rare. We show that for these values of the gain it is possible to derive first passage times for learning dynamics reduced to one dimension without resort to large deviations theory. This procedure delivers mean escape time results that fit the simulations closely. We explain inapplicability of large deviations theory by insufficient averaging near the point of self-confirming equilibrium for relatively large gains which makes escapes relatively frequent, suggest the changes which might help approaches based on the theory to work better in this gain interval, and describe a simple heuristic method for determining the range of constant gain values for which large deviations theory could be applicable.     

浅析企业“假破产，真逃债”的形式及处理

破产是在债务人的全部财产不能清偿债务的前提下，法院根据债权人或债务人本人的申请做出宣告，并依法对其财产进行清理和分配的制度。人民法院审理破产案件的根本目的是通过对破产企业财产的依法清理、处分，最大限度地保护债权人的合法权益。在当前业破产案件中，有部分企业以破产为幌子，钻目前我国有关破产的法律、法规不健全的空子，欺骗债权人，损害国家、集体等债权人的合法权益，以达到选避债务的目的，谓之“破产”选债。特剐是企业以“破产”方式选废银行债务的行为已经成为当前金融运行中的一个突出问题，直接导致了市场信用破坏，扰乱了经济秩序，危及银行资产安全，增大了金融风险。     

从保障措施制度的演进看WTO多边贸易体系规则变动的内在机制——兼论保障措施制度的经济学基础

与GATT体制不同,WTO框架下保障措施贸易调查数量远高于GATT时期,并正在成为印度等发展中成员的"新宠",而由此引发的贸易摩擦不可小视。文章利用世界贸易体系经济学的研究方法,分析了保障措施制度设定的经济学基础,并以保障措施制度的演进过程为例,阐述了WTO多边贸易体系规则变动的内在机制,其许多共性对于后危机时代,新贸易规则不断涌现的今天有着重要的借鉴意义。     

Analyze Chinese capital escape ＆ international moving capital influx from net errors and omissions in the balance of payments

With the rapid economic development, the imbalance of China＇s balance of payments gets sever gradually, especially in the continuous increase in the net errors and omissions, which even has exceeded the international alert line. Such scale of net errors and omissions have also presented the flaws of the custody of capital flows, leading to huge capital escape and hot money influx, which needs our attention.     

Escape dynamics and equilibria selection by iterative cycle decomposition

This paper explores the medium-run behaviour of bounded rational players in repeatedly played games when they occasionally experiment or make mistakes. The formal analysis introduces a hierarchical structure of limit sets to characterize the most possible medium-run behaviour over gradually increased time intervals. The paper refines the notion of stochastic stability and offers a precise measure of the speed at which stochastically stable equilibria occur. Finally, the paper applies the results to a 3×3 symmetric game of Young (1993).     

Learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion

The combination of learning and depletion in non-renewable resource markets adds significant volatility to commodity prices. The market consists of a small number of suppliers who make depletion plans based on their perceptions of how sensitive price is to supply. Learning leads to changes in these perceptions and hence the revision of depletion plans, which can have a dramatic effect on market supply and price. Firstly, price trends upwards faster than the rate of time preference as the non-renewable resource approaches exhaustion. Secondly, there are frequent escape episodes in which price rises rapidly before gradually falling back. The striking volatility and nonstationarity in commodity prices that results has parallels in oil price data.     

Escape FDI and the dynamics of a cumulative process of institutional misalignment and contestation: Stress,strain and failure

We argue that escape foreign direct investment (FDI) happens when unknown future “rules of the game” cause concern about the continued productive capacity of the economy. Adapting the stress-strain-fail model of materials failure, we argue that escape FDI is a process with three cumulative phases. Conditions for escape FDI (stress) are created by institutional deterioration and contained contestation. Limited escape FDI (strain) results from periods of societal instability and/or inadequate institutional reforms. Extensive escape FDI (failure) results from pervasive societal instability and/or fundamental changes in institutions. Using a historical approach, we develop these propositions for South Africa, 1956 to 2012.