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2.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2019,35(4):1669-1678
We estimate a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) for the UK economy and assess its performance in forecasting GDP growth and CPI inflation in real time relative to forecasts from COMPASS, the Bank of England’s DSGE model, and other benchmarks. We find that the BVAR outperformed COMPASS when forecasting both GDP and its expenditure components. In contrast, their performances when forecasting CPI were similar. We also find that the BVAR density forecasts outperformed those of COMPASS, despite under-predicting inflation at most forecast horizons. Both models over-predicted GDP growth at all forecast horizons, but the issue was less pronounced in the BVAR. The BVAR’s point and density forecast performances are also comparable to those of a Bank of England in-house statistical suite for both GDP and CPI inflation, as well as to the official Inflation Report projections. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of similar studies for other advanced economies. 相似文献
3.
Francesco Pauli 《Revue internationale de statistique》2019,87(1):68-79
The reproducibility crisis, that is, the fact that many scientific results are difficult to replicate, pointing to their unreliability or falsehood, is a hot topic in the recent scientific literature, and statistical methodologies, testing procedures and p‐values, in particular, are at the centre of the debate. Assessment of the extent of the problem–the reproducibility rate or the false discovery rate–and the role of contributing factors are still an open problem. Replication experiments, that is, systematic replications of existing results, may offer relevant information on these issues. We propose a statistical model to deal with such information, in particular to estimate the reproducibility rate and the effect of some study characteristics on its reliability. We analyse data from a recent replication experiment in psychology finding a reproducibility rate broadly coherent with other assessments from the same experiment. Our results also confirm the expected role of some contributing factor (unexpectedness of the result and room for bias) while they suggest that the similarity between original study and the replica is not so relevant, thus mitigating some criticism directed to replication experiments. 相似文献
4.
Peter Holm Andreasen Britta Gammelgaard 《Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management》2018,24(2):151-163
It is a wide-held assumption that professional development and change within purchasing and supply management (PSM) organisations can be explained and guided by a maturity model. In this paper the guidance which the maturity model concept offers to understand a PSM organisation's performance is assessed. The methodology is based on the outcomes of a literature review of PSM maturity models, development of an organisational change framework and the learning from three qualitative case studies. An alternative understanding of the development of the PSM organisation is offered through an organisational change framework, composing 1) movement transitions, 2) scalability of change, 3) acceptability of change, and 4) the substantive element of change. The research found that extant PSM maturity models are too rigid for PSM managers to apply, and although maturity models are commonly accepted in PSM literature, in practice, they may produce the opposite effect of what is promised. The PSM maturity models suggest that their application will lead to increased status and influence of PSM within the organisation; expectations that may not be met. PSM organisations’ change processes are subjected to a range of situational and contextual power relations which must be considered in order to advance the specific PSM organisation roles and responsibilities. 相似文献
5.
A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Anastasia Ivanova 《Metrika》2003,58(1):1-13
We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing
treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion
as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized
play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities
the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns
more subjects to the better treatment.
Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions. 相似文献
6.
Loïc Cadiou Stphane Des Jean-Pierre Laffargue 《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》2003,27(11-12):1961
This paper presents a vintage capital model assuming putty–clay investment and perfect foresight. The model is written in discrete time and is simulated by using a second order relaxation algorithm. By computing the eigenvalues of the dynamic system, we have checked the conditions of existence and uniqueness of a solution (Blanchard and Kahn's conditions) and identified the echo effect that characterizes vintage capital models and the related dynamics of creation and destruction. By calibrating the model on French data, it has been proved useful to explain the medium-term movements in the distribution of income in France during the last three decades. 相似文献
7.
This article proposes a new approach to testing for the hypothesisof a single priced risk factor driving the term structure ofinterest rates. The method does not rely on any parametric specificationof the state variable dynamics or the market price of risk.It simply exploits the constraint imposed by the no-arbitragecondition on instantaneous expected bond returns. In order toachieve our goal, we develop a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and applyit to data on Treasury bills and bonds for both the United Statesand Spain. We find that the single risk factor hypothesis cannotbe rejected for either dataset. 相似文献
8.
Motivated by the implied stochastic volatility literature (Britten–Jones and Neuberger, forthcoming; Derman and Kani, 1997; Ledoit and Santa–Clara, 1998) this paper proposes a new and general method for constructing smile–consistent stochastic volatility models. The method is developed by recognising that option pricing and hedging can be accomplished via the simulation of the implied risk neutral distribution. We devise an algorithm for the simulation of the implied distribution, when the first two moments change over time. The algorithm can be implemented easily, and it is based on an economic interpretation of the concept of mixture of distributions. It can also be generalised to cases where more complicated forms for the mixture are assumed. 相似文献
9.
Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances.
We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is
followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria.
The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact
on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes
of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables
and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models.
JEL no. F32, C23, C53 相似文献
10.
William R. Dillon Ulf Böckenholt Melinda Smith de Borrero Ham Bozdogan Wayne de Sarbo Sunil Gupta Wagner Kamakura Ajith Kumar Benkatram Ramaswamy Michael Zenor 《Marketing Letters》1994,5(4):323-334
Our paper provides a brief review and summary of issues and advances in the use of latent structure and other finite mixture models in the analysis of choice data. Focus is directed to three primary areas: (1) estimation and computational issues, (2) specification and interpretation issues, and (3) future research issues. We comment on what latent structure models have promised, what has been, to date, delivered, and what we should look forward to in the future. 相似文献