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Progress ratios (PRs) derived from historical data in experience curves are used for forecasting development of many technologies as a means to model endogenous technical change in for instance climate–economy models. These forecasts are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the progress ratio. As a progress ratio is determined from fitting data, a coefficient of determination R2 is frequently used to show the quality of the fit and accuracy of PR. Although this is instructive, we recommend using the error σPR in PR, which can be directly determined from fitting the data. In this paper we illustrate this approach for three renewable energy technologies, i.e., wind energy, bio-ethanol, and photovoltaics. 相似文献
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The aims of this research are to clarify the motivations of rock climbing tourists by using a push and pull framework and to investigate the relationship between tourist motivation and overall satisfaction. In a survey of 473 rock climbing tourists in the Geyikbayırı region in Antalya, Turkey, the most important push motivations were identified as ‘physical setting’ and ‘challenge’, while ‘climbing novelty seeking’ and ‘climbing tourism infrastructure’ were the most important pull motivations. Furthermore, the findings of this study indicated that overall satisfaction of rock climbers can be determined by their push and pull motivations. The results also showed that motivations of rock climbers differ according to their experience levels. The paper ends with theoretical contributions of the study and its managerial implications. 相似文献
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Public space plays a primary role in shaping customers' hospitality experiences. Yet how public space conditions customers' experiential outcomes in accumulating capital for hospitality organizations remains underexplored. Inspired by the theory of psychological ownership, this research presents an in-depth analysis of the impacts of customers' public space experiences on their experiential outcomes using a longitudinal hotel industry dataset merging information from customer surveys, property performance, and surrounding accessibility insights. Findings revealed the positive effects of customers’ public space experiences on their overall service experiences, the perceived value of the experience, revisit intentions, and recommendation intentions. Moreover, hotel class, other customers, and surrounding accessibility were empirically verified as moderators conditioning the positive impact of public space. These findings offer valuable implications for theory and practice that are worthy of further exploration. 相似文献
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Visitor experiences have been identified as critical for the sustainable management of tourism destinations. However, researchers have given limited attention to how to measure visitor preferences for different, newly proposed experiences, especially in nature-based tourism contexts. This paper aims to capture potential visitors' preferences for nature-based visitor experiences that would alleviate pressure on the iconic summit of Mount Warning, Australia. Findings reveal a preference for passive rather than active experiences. Consistency between the four measurement approaches used was high. Future studies should consider adopting multiple measures to underpin evidence-based management that informs the design of nature-based tourism experiences. 相似文献
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Efficient development of industries requires a broad range of technological capabilities which can be acquired only by a long process of learning. Continuous measuring and monitoring of the ever-changing technological learning would be useful for building technological capability and managing technological policies. Nevertheless, research on how to measure the technological learning over time at macro levels remains largely untouched. In this paper, by adding the experience curve into the multifactor productivity part of Neoclassical production function, we will develop a model which will allow one to estimate the technological learning levels over long periods. This model would allow a user to both estimate the past learning experiences and forecast its future path on a time varying basis. The model has been used and tested in the estimation of the annual technological learning values for 28 Turkish manufacturing industries from 1981 to 2000. 相似文献
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Martin Weiss Author Vitae Martin Junginger Author VitaeAuthor Vitae Kornelis Blok Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(3):411-8581
Transitioning towards a sustainable energy system requires the large-scale introduction of novel energy demand and supply technologies. Such novel technologies are often expensive at the point of their market introduction but eventually become cheaper due to technological learning. In order to quantify potentials for price and cost decline, the experience curve approach has been extensively applied to renewable and non-renewable energy supply technologies. However, its application to energy demand technologies is far less frequent. Here, we provide the first comprehensive review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies. We find a widespread trend towards declining prices and costs at an average learning rate of 18 ± 9%. This finding is consistent with the results for energy supply technologies and for manufacturing in general. Learning rates for individual energy demand technologies are symmetrically distributed around the arithmetic mean of the data sample. Absolute variation of learning rates within individual technology clusters of 7 ± 4%-points and between technology clusters of 7 ± 5%-points both contribute to the overall variability of learning rates. Our results show that technological learning is as important for energy demand technologies as it is for energy supply technologies. Applying the experience curve approach to forecast technology costs involves, however, unresolved uncertainties, as we demonstrate in a case study for the micro-cogeneration technology. 相似文献
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外债管理的国际经验与启示 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文研究了发达经济体(美、欧、澳、韩)和发展中经济体(俄、印)的外债发展历史和外债管理实践,并基于外债管理的国际经验提供可行性建议,旨在为加快推进我国的外债管理体制改革提供有益借鉴。 相似文献
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Literature on acquisition places more concern on the consequence of an acquisition event and pays less attention to what factors influence the motive for initiating the acquisition strategy of a firm. Through the lenses of organizational learning and corporate governance theories, the study examine whether the prior acquisition experience and board characteristics affect firms' acquisition behavior. Hypotheses are tested on a sample of 92 acquisition events of Taiwanese electronics firms during the period from 1997 to 2007 by employing the survival function model. Empirical results indicate that business acquisition experience positively influence the inclination of the acquirer adopting a subsequent acquisition, while board characteristics do not relate to the likelihood of the acquirer making a subsequent acquisition. These findings provide theoretical and managerial implications for organizational learning and corporate governance theories in general and acquisition management in particular. 相似文献