Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

科技服务业产出测算：指标确立、数据收集与未来预测

科技服务业产出测算是对科技服务业产出数据的统计与分析，加强科技服务业产出数据的规范统计和应用分析可为我国政府调整产业政策提供重要数据支撑。以科技服务业产出测算为研究对象，结合学者观点、国家标准及各级政府相关产业政策，提出将分支产业作为初始指标的横向统计思路，构建科技服务业产出测算指标体系。在数据收集方面，强调要做好“收”与“填”两个基本工作；在指标确立和数据收集基础上，进一步提出未来预测的两种方法，以此作为科技服务业产出数据预测的初步探索；提出应从统一数据统计标准、完善数据调查与公开制度、加强数据资源开发3个方面建立健全我国科技服务业产出数据测量与管理体制机制。     

城镇群空间结构与要素集聚

依据城镇化发展过程中要素空间集聚理论，展开区域经济发展的空间经济结构研究。通过城市引力、克鲁格曼指数计算，比较分析城镇群内部城市吸引力和城市产业分布的差异性，通过人口与生产空间分布集中度指标和不一致系数的测算，分析了山西省城镇群空间要素集聚效应。研究表明，山西省的城镇群规划与要素空间集聚趋势整体一致，城市间产业分工体系基本形成，城镇群的要素集聚效应明显，但人口与生产分布仍存在不一致性。研究认为，山西省城镇群发展应该继续明确各城市的产业分工和特色，引导劳动力和资本要素的合理流动，实现人口与生产空间分布的一致。     

Industry 4.0 technologies in the manufacturing sector: Are we sure they are all relevant for environmental performance?

This research contributes to the debate about the relevance of Industry 4.0 technologies in improving environmental performance in the manufacturing industry. We employed a qualitative–quantitative approach in which 19 Italian operations managers were interviewed and 260 managers responded to an online questionnaire. The effects of various technologies were ranked using ordinal regression. Comments and suggestions gave context to the quantitative results. Sensors, radio-frequency identification, artificial intelligence and analytics were found to be most relevant in improving environmental performance, whereas simulation software contributed moderately. Additive manufacturing, cobots, robots, automated mobile robots and automated guided vehicles had a negative effect, augmented reality had no effect and other technologies indirectly affected environmental performance. We also found a lack of knowledge and application as well as scepticism about technologies such as artificial intelligence and augmented reality. Finally, there was concern about the disposal of electrical and electronic waste produced by these technologies.     

Farm size and productivity growth in the United States Corn Belt

In recent decades, agricultural production in the U.S. has continued to shift to large-scale operations, raising concerns about the economic viability of small and midsized farms. To understand whether economies of size provided an incentive for the consolidation of production, the study estimates the total factor productivity (TFP) of five size classes of grain-producing farms in the U.S. Heartland (Corn Belt) region. Using quinquennial Agricultural Census data from 1982 to 2012 the study also compares TFP growth rates across farm sizes to gain insight into whether observed productivity differences are likely to persist. The finding of a strong positive relationship between farm size and TFP suggests that consolidation of production has contributed to recent aggregate productivity growth in the crop sector. The study estimates the extent to which sectoral productivity growth can be attributed to structural change versus other factors including technological change. The study also explores some tradeoffs associated with policies that raise the productivity of small versus large farms.     

Network structure,portfolio diversification and systemic risk

We investigate the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk, where the network effect is incorporated. We analyze three kinds of interbank networks, namely, random networks, small-world networks and scale-free networks. We show that the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk depends on interbank network structures and shock types. First, systemic risk increases first and then reduces with the increase of the level of portfolio diversification in the case of the individual shock. Second, in the case of the systemic shock, systemic risk reduces with the increases of the level of portfolio diversification. Third, banking systems with scale-free network structures are the most stable, and those with small-world network structures are the most vulnerable.     

Developing design principles for the digitalisation of purchasing and supply management

This paper develops an approach to evaluating designs for digitalisation interventions in purchasing and supply management (PSM), and identifies some fundamental design principles for such interventions. A set of advanced technologies for digitalisation and a theory-based set of seven value drivers for PSM are identified for the proposed grid to facilitate the design of applications and interventions for digitalising PSM. The grid relates the digital technologies to the PSM value drivers in a matrix-like manner, allowing the structured consideration of the space defined by these two dimensions. The proposed approach to the strategic evolution of digitalisation in PSM is tested and its utility is demonstrated in analyses of practitioner literature and multiple case-study-based perspectives on PSM digitalisation. Two fundamental design principles relating to the use of the grid, or to the filling of its space, are set out, thus the research provides new theoretical perspectives on the design of advanced forms of PSM digitalisation. The proposed grid may be used in application design, communicating current and future states of PSM digitalisation to stakeholders, and specifically in developing a future-oriented strategy with a digitalization element for the PSM function.     

Industry risk transmission channels and the spillover effects of specific determinants in China’s stock market: A spatial econometrics approach

This paper uses a spatial econometrics approach to study the industry risks in China’s stock market. We comprehensively consider the real linkage and information risk transmission channels and analyze the risk spillovers of specific determinants. Our empirical results show the following: 1) The real linkage channel and information channel are both effective transmission channels for driving spillover effects, and the information channel is of the utmost importance. 2) The spillover effects of specific determinants exist and are persistent. The superposition of spillover effects may lead to extreme risk. 3) The transmission channels and spillover effects are asymmetric in different regimes.