Globalization and domestic conflict

When a resource like oil is domestically contested, trade patters and welfare can be very different than when property rights are costlessly enforced. Whereas (small-country) importers of the contested resource gain unambiguously relative to autarky, exporters of the contested resource lose under free trade, unless the world price of the resource is sufficiently high. Regardless of what price obtains in world markets, countries tend to over-export the contested resource compared to the absence of conflict. For a wide range of prices, higher international prices of the contested resource reduce welfare, an instance of the “natural resource curse.”     

Consumer insecurity and preference for nostalgic products: Evidence from China

This research examines the effects of consumers' insecurity on their preferences for nostalgic products. Using survey data from a sample of 356 Chinese consumers, the analysis shows that existential insecurity and social insecurity enhance consumers' preference for nostalgic products. In addition, the results suggest that marketers can use nostalgic elements to promote sales by relieving consumers' insecurity, through designing nostalgic appearance and creating meaningful stories for products.     

助推力还是绊脚石？工作不安全感对个体创新行为的“双刃剑”影响

根据压力交互理论和调节焦点理论,构建工作不安全感对个体创新行为的“双刃剑”影响理论模型,探讨挑战性压力和阻碍性压力的中介作用、促进型焦点和防御型焦点的调节作用。选取12家高新技术企业60个团队414份领导和员工的两时间点配对调查问卷进行实证检验。研究发现：一方面,工作不安全感会通过挑战性压力认知和促进型焦点的调节导向对个体创新行为产生积极影响,成为个体创新行为的“动力”和“助推力”;另一方面,工作不安全感会通过阻碍性压力认知和防御型焦点的调节导向对个体创新行为产生消极影响,成为个体创新行为的“负担”和“绊脚石”。     

Assessing food insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean using FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale

The complexity of the operational concept and definition of food insecurity has complicated the study of the ‘food insecure’ and efforts to determine clear policy directions. Previous findings on the prevalence and severity of food insecurity are inconsistent and often depend on the measure used. To overcome limitations in food security measurement, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations developed the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, which is the first survey protocol to measure people’s direct experience of food insecurity on a global scale. Using this new measure, our study contributes to the understanding of the food insecure by examining the determinants of food insecurity within and across countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Using a series of multilevel linear models, we find the three determinants associated with the largest increase in the likelihood of experiencing food insecurity in LAC are: low levels of education, limited social capital, and living in a country with low GDP per capita. Results suggest the need to promote education of the most vulnerable, encourage social interactions that help build individuals’ social capital, and adopt gender-sensitive programs. The results also suggest the need for a shift in policy from short-term strategies to long-term efforts that sustain household productive capacity and employment to promote sustained economic growth.     

房地产泡沫和金融不安全——日本泡沫经济15周年评述

20世纪80-90年代日本以地价泡沫为特征的房地产泡沫对日本金融安全造成了重大损害。究其原因在于日本房地产泡沫和金融不安全之间存在相互传递的关系,其中金融自由化等制度变迁为两者的传递提供了环境和土壤,宏观经济政策的变化起着助推作用,预期发挥着动力作用,而经济主体的行为变异则最终促成房地产泡沫和金融不安全相互传递的实现。     

人工智能潜在替代风险与员工职业能力发展:基于员工不安全感视角

随着智能科技的蓬勃发展,"人工智能+"在有助于生产和生活的同时,也为员工的职业发展带来了挑战。本文采用机器学习算法计算我国各类职业潜在替代风险,在此基础上深入探讨了潜在替代风险对员工不安全感与职业能力发展的影响。基于13158条职业数据和808份调查问卷的分析,研究发现:我国职业面临着较强的人工智能潜在替代问题的威胁,潜在替代风险高中低的比例分别是52.80%、25.72%和21.48%;潜在替代风险最低的职业大类是企业、事业单位负责人,最高的是生产、运输设备操作人员及有关人员。进一步地,人工智能潜在替代风险在质量性不安全感与职业能力发展间起负向调节作用,当潜在替代风险高时,质量性不安全感对职业能力发展的正向影响作用更小,当潜在替代风险低时,质量性不安全感对职业能力发展的正向影响作用更大。人工智能潜在替代风险对数量性不安全感与职业能力发展的U型关系起正向调节作用,当潜在替代风险高时,数量性不安全感对职业能力发展的U型效应更强,当人工智能潜在替代风险低时,员工数量性不安全感对职业能力发展的U型效应更低。本研究丰富了人工智能领域与职业能力发展的实证研究,为新时代人才培养和技能转型提供建议。