基于BP神经网络算法的风电功率预测

针对风电功率的预测,从神经网络的训练仿真入手,综合运用BP神经网络、平均绝对误差MAE等多种方法,建立风电功率预测模型,运用Matlab和Excel软件编程,得到了后续7天中时隔5min和15min的风电功率预测趋势和时隔5min样本数据的预测误差水平相对于15min来说降低了6.349%等结果。     

On Liu estimators for the logit regression model

This paper introduces a shrinkage estimator for the logit model which is a generalization of the estimator proposed by Liu (1993) for the linear regression. This new estimation method is suggested since the mean squared error (MSE) of the commonly used maximum likelihood (ML) method becomes inflated when the explanatory variables of the regression model are highly correlated. Using MSE, the optimal value of the shrinkage parameter is derived and some methods of estimating it are proposed. It is shown by means of Monte Carlo simulations that the estimated MSE and mean absolute error (MAE) are lower for the proposed Liu estimator than those of the ML in the presence of multicollinearity. Finally the benefit of the Lie estimator is shown in an empirical application where different economic factors are used to explain the probability that municipalities have net increase of inhabitants.     

Dynamically interdependent business model for airline–airport coexistence

Governments provide various forms of financial support for sustaining unprofitable regional airways, especially when such airways are essential to local livelihoods and economies. However, inefficient provision of subsidies has been subject to worldwide criticism. Therefore, this study examines the load factor guarantee, a dynamically interdependent business model for airline-airport coexistence where an airline and an airport agree on the load factor of a flight, after which either party compensates for any discrepancies between the actual and agreed-upon load factor. The model is calibrated by using 2003–2014 data regarding Noto Airport and All Nippon Airways, and system dynamics are employed to model the dynamic interactions between the two parties. The findings show that successful coexistence between an airline and an airport hinges on the integral management of annual negotiations regarding the target load factor and the monthly demand adjustment of subsidies. In addition, although a subsidy represents a temporary financial loss for an airport, it is an effective way of maintaining long-term, airline–airport coexistence. This model is applicable to unprofitable airways worldwide, and it contributes to their sustainable management.