Should sequels differ from original movies in pre-launch advertising schedule? Lessons from consumers' online search activity

Sequels have become a profitable strategy in the U.S. motion picture industry because of their strong name recognition. However, while the established positioning of a sequel may help insulate it from competing firms' advertising messages, its familiarity may cause moviegoers to be more easily satiated with advertising from the sequel. Therefore, this study examines how sequels differ from original concept movies in terms of their ad effectiveness. We focus our analysis on pre-launch periods, given these periods' importance in shaping the financial outcomes of motion pictures. We consider the weekly online search volume of a movie as a measure of consumer interest in it, and thus as an intermediate response to pre-launch advertising. We then develop a model that assumes ad effectiveness can decline, due to copy and repetition wearout, and increase, due to forgetting, over time. We find that copy wearout is greater for original movies, while repetition wearout and forgetting are greater for sequels. These findings suggest that sequels should allocate more in early pre-launch periods and less immediately before release, relative to originals, to maximize pre-launch consumer interest.     

Simultaneous Estimation of Legal and Illegal Supply and Demand: The Case of Motion Pictures

Prior research into illegal goods has typically looked at one-way effects, such as illegal demand on legal demand. This research investigates a previously unexamined component of the market, illegal supply. The authors examine the supply and demand of legal goods and their illegal counterparts as a market system of four interdependent components. This research makes theoretical and empirical contributions by evaluating illegal supply in this system. Simultaneous equations estimate each market component on the others using data from the motion picture industry. The results find illegal supply has no effect on legal supply (movie screens), positive effects on illegal demand (piracy downloads), and some effect on legal demand (box office revenues). Timing effects highlight this: illegal supply has a positive effect on legal demand during a film’s opening week, but no effect post-launch. The other market components have positive effects on illegal supply (except legal supply, which is negative in the opening week). Additionally, illegal demand has a negative effect on legal demand during the opening week of release, but not in the subsequent weeks. This finding alleviates prior research tension as to whether piracy helps or hurts legal sales, as omitting illegal supply could result in biased estimates.     

Do movie contents influence box-office revenues?

This article studies the determinants of box-office revenues in the motion picture industry. We first adopt an approach that takes into account quality signals (e.g. talent concentration, movie budget and Oscar awards, among others) to analyse the empirical relationship between category-specific parenthood ratings (R-ratings) and box-office revenues. Then, by matching movie contents with economic performance records, our original approach reveals that offensive contents like profanity or nudity may be a hindrance to achieve economic returns, while violent contents seems to enhance box-office revenues. Further research is needed to clarify the interaction in this regard between production budget and movie contents.     

基于 TCP/IP 的远程数字监控系统

根据美国国家经济研究局（NBER）的最新宣布,美国经济自2001年3月已经进入衰退。本文认为,美国此次衰退是难以避免的,这是经济周期的必然规律,由于此前虚拟经济与实体经济的发展脱离,形成泡沫,那些过剩的资本终究会退出,于是造成人们心理预期的过度反应,消费和投资需求出现大幅萎缩,而恐怖袭击事件则加速了衰退的进程。对中国而言,美国衰退的影响是利弊兼有,主要表现在出口、引资、经济格局等方面。     

Impact of star and movie buzz on motion picture distribution and box office revenue

This study contributes to research on the impact that consumer buzz has on movie distribution and box office success by examining the impact of buzz generated about the individual stars and about the movie itself. The results indicate that movie buzz is instrumental in boosting box office revenue throughout the theatrical release, not just in the later run, as has been suggested in previous studies. Star buzz can enhance box office receipts during the opening week and can contribute to the public's anticipation of the movie pre-release. However, early buzz can have a negative impact on revenue during subsequent weeks if the movie fails to resonate with the audiences. Model simulations reveal that, even for poorly received films, the overall impact of star buzz is positive because the initial revenue boost normally outweighs the later decline. Thus, this study empirically demonstrates the positive impact of star buzz on revenue, which helps shed light on the long-standing debate regarding the importance of star participation in the success of a movie.     

浅论苏轼“诗中有画”“画中有诗”命题的学理依据

苏轼从文艺本质、创作、作品三个方面确立了以诗画"一律"、诗画"略同"为核心思想的诗画关系理论体系.他对王维"诗中有画""画中有诗"的评论就是建立在这个理论体系基础之上的.同时.这则评论与苏轼提出的"士人画"这个概念也有着密切的联系.文章通过对苏轼诗画关系理论的梳理和阐释,进而对"诗中有画""画中有诗"的内涵和外延作以全面的界定.     

The U.S. Motion Pictures Industry: An Empirical Approach

We hypothesize that the U.S. motion pictures industry is structured so that star presence increases box office receipts and (less so) admissions, but places Ricardian limits on the output of blockbusters. The few dominant studios (majors) rely on a modified star system to generate supra-normal box office by stimulating admissions at exhibitors. Rising costs (from stars and their promotion) are required for rising revenues; that is, the majors gain revenue only at higher costs. Although the industry has unique features, the empirical results are surprisingly relevant to other industries.     

An Analysis of the Out-of-Market Gap for DVDs in the U.S.

We examine the out-of-market gap – the time between the end of a film’s theatrical run and its release on DVD – for a sample of U.S. films during 1988-2005. The average gap declined from 58.14 days in 1998 to 27.93 days in 2005; by 2005, 39% of the films were released on DVD prior to leaving the theaters. Probit and hazard models are estimated to explore the factors that influence a distributor’s decision to release a film on DVD before it exits the theaters, and the timing of the release for films that appear on DVD after they leave the theaters.      

Motion Pictures Industry: Economies of Scale and Trade

Recent economic theories find industrial structure to be an important determinant of the pattern of trade. In the motion picture industry, economies of scale and imperfect competition, in addition to cultural sovereignty, are conditions sometimes used to justify protectionist policies. This paper examines the significance of the capital-labor ratio, VCRs, market share, tariffs, domestic market size, taste similarities, stars and domestically popular films on international trade in the industry. The results indicate that stars and blockbusters in the domestic market do not seem to influence consumption of films overseas, however, external economies of scale are present in the industry, tariffs are effective trade barriers in the industry, and VCRs increase the chances of piracy.     

Clustering at the Movies

Weekly box office revenues for approximately 100 successful motion pictures are analyzed by use of a finite mixture regression technique to determine if regular sales patterns emerge. Based on an exponential decay model applied to market share data, four clusters of movies, varying in opening strength and decay rate, are found. Characteristics of the clusters and implications for future research are discussed.