Comparing the True Cost of Living Indices of Demographically Different Households

The comparison of true cost of living indices between demographically different households (relative equivalence scale) is argued to be sensitive to the way demographic characteristics enter demand analysis. In particular, parameters reflecting the cost of demographic characteristics at base prices, though themselves do not have welfare (equivalence scale) interpretation, can alter the benchmark from which demographically varying inflation effects are measured. The empirical analysis, based on a rank‐3 demand system applied to UK individual household data, shows that the inflation adjustment of child benefits can vary with the way demographic costs at base period prices are specified.     

物流企业实现规模效益的途径探讨

针对当前物流企业规模较小、效益较差的现状，本文提出通过扩大企业规模的措施，以实现规模经济，提高企业效益。     

Use numbers not words! Communicating hotels’ cleaning programs for COVID-19 from the brand perspective

After hotels in many countries were forced to close in government-imposed lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic, there is an inherent need to communicate how they deal with the coronavirus to motivate guests to visit. However, lack of knowledge about how to persuasively communicate about hotels’ cleaning programs for COVID-19 can challenge the industry’s survival. We investigated how hotels that position their brand as a particular personality (sincere vs. exciting) could benefit from different communication styles (inclusion of numerical vs. verbal quantifiers) when presenting their COVID-19 cleaning procedures. Study 1 explored tourists’ central attitudinal responses toward hotels’ cleaning programs. Study 2 demonstrated that sincere hotel brands would benefit from using numerical and verbal quantifiers to communicate their cleaning policies, whereas exciting hotel brands would benefit only from numerical quantifiers. Our results invite hotel managers to use their brand personality positioning to influence tourists’ attitudes and intentions in a pandemic context.     

Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports

We analyze the narratives that accompany the numerical forecasts in the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Reports, 1997–2018. We focus on whether the narratives contain useful information about the future course of key macro variables over and above the point predictions, in terms of whether the narratives can be used to enhance the accuracy of the numerical forecasts. We also consider whether the narratives are able to predict future changes in the numerical forecasts. We find that a measure of sentiment derived from the narratives can predict the errors in the numerical forecasts of output growth, but not of inflation. We find no evidence that past changes in sentiment predict subsequent changes in the point forecasts of output growth or of inflation, but do find that the adjustments to the numerical output growth forecasts have a systematic element.     

计量模型中的加总偏误与内生性：一种数值模拟方法

理论文献已经证明了细分数据模型的内生性和加总过程产生的内生性是加总偏误的根本原因。但是由于内生性涉及误差项与回归量之间的相关性问题,试图通过实证方法审视这两类内生性对加总偏误的影响变得比较困难,而数值模拟却是一个较为理想的方法。在数值模拟中,我们通过控制随机变量的分布形式以及随机变量之间的相关程度,进而对两类内生性因素产生的加总偏误进行全面细致的考察。本文的研究将为加总偏误的内生性解释提供有力证据。     

政府行政成本的影响因素及控制路径探讨

从政府行政成本的内涵分析入手,指出政府规模与行政能力是影响行政成本的两个主要因素,并针对其主要影响因素,从转变政府职能、控制政府规模、推进依法行政、推行电子政务等路径．探讨行政成本的控制问题。     

土地规模与农户秸秆还田技术采纳——基于冀鲁皖鄂4省的微观调查

研究目的:探讨不同规模农户采纳秸秆还田技术的行为差异和影响因素。研究方法:采用Logistic模型对冀、鲁、皖、鄂4省1372份农户调查数据进行实证分析。研究结果:(1)农户的秸秆还田技术采纳行为存在规模经济效应;(2)地块数和区位条件是限制小规模农户采纳秸秆还田技术的客观因素,在土地规模短期不能扩大的情况下,秸秆还田技术不具备普适性是该项技术推广受阻的重要原因;(3)配备秸秆还田服务人员机构,有针对性地对小规模男性农户进行培训和指导,提高农户的经济收入和经济感知,能显著促进小规模农户采纳秸秆还田技术。研究结论:应从改善机械作业条件,促进土地适度规模经营;改进秸秆还田技术,降低技术采纳成本;培育秸秆还田社会化服务组织,提高农户认知等方面着手,有效推广秸秆还田的耕作技术手段。     

基于Eclipse的Scal模块实现毛管力和相渗数据合并的方法

在应用研究Eclipse软件的基础上,提出了利用Eclipse软件提供的Scal模块按照油藏模拟器要求把毛管力和相渗数据合并成一个新的以相饱和度相联系的饱和度函数表的新方法。实践表明,该方法简便实用。     

小资料

小资料世界上有哪些市场经济模式目前，世界上大体有三种市场经济模式：即德国模式、日本模式和美国模式。德国模式：社会市场经济模式。吸收了社会主义国家的一些长处，如＂社会公平＂、＂社会保险＂等等，但它不搞社会主义高度集中的计划经济体制。所有社会主义保障、社...