Dynamic Currency Linkages and Their Determinants: An Empirical Study for East Asian Economic Community Region

In this article, Copula GARCH models have been employed to study the inter-temporal process of currency market co-movements between ASEAN+6 countries (referred to in this study as East Asian Economic Community) and ASEAN+6 currency market index. Empirical results show that the sample countries of the region exhibit varying levels of currency co-movements with the Asian benchmark. Markov regime switching results show that many of the countries which had high dependences with the regional currency index as was found in copula estimations had also overlapping currency market cycles. Using Principal Component Analysis, we find that three statistical factors explain exchange rate co-movements which came out to be trade linkages, economic risk, and currency market openness in our dynamic panel data estimation.     

The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence

In this paper, we explicitly introduce regional factors into a global dynamic factor model. We combine new open economy factor models (emphasizing global shocks) with the recent findings of regional importance in the business cycle synchronization literature. The analysis is applied to a large panel of domestic data for four small open economies. We find that global and regional shocks explain roughly 30 and 20 percent, respectively, of the business cycle variation in all countries. While global shocks have most impact on trade variables, regional shocks explain a relatively large share of the variation in cost variables.     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

The synchronization club: classification of global economic groups by inequality

We find that, from 1970 to 2006, the GDPs of 181 countries are described by a log-normal with a power law tail before 1992, but by a kinked power law distribution after 1992. In the 15 years from 1992 to 2006, there are two obvious scale-free zones for annual GDPs, ranked from the largest to smallest. If the countries in each scaling region are regarded as a group, the world is divided into two groups, each with a roughly stable number of members. The power exponents of the two groups are different and hence lead to different inequalities. Therefore, the basis for classification is the macro-consistent inequality within each group. The wealth grows in a synchronous nonlinear manner within groups that have a stable wealth distribution and rank structure. If each group is considered as a club, we name it a ‘synchronization club’.     

一种基于Android系统的嵌入式数据库同步方案

近年来,无线应用业务迅速发展,大大地丰富了人们的沟通和生活方式。本文作者结合基于Android系统的应用软件开发,介绍了服务器数据库与客户端SQLite数据库的一种同步方案。其中涉及到XML、Java DOM等基本技术。     

一种基于位同步的复杂调制样式识别方法

针对卫星数字化视频广播第二代标准（Digital Video Broadcasting-Satellite -Second Generation,DVB-S2）中的多进制幅度移相键控（Multiple Amplitude and Phase-Shift Keying,MAPSK）和多进制正交幅度调制（Multiple Quadrature Amplitude Modulation,MQAM）信号的调制识别,提出了基于位同步的识别方法。首先利用信号星座图特征对信号包络进行位同步,然后统计信号码元的幅度值个数及其幅度值分布提取统计特征参数,最后利用特征参数完成识别。仿真结果表明,所提算法在载波频率等参数未知的条件下,能够有效对信号进行调制识别。     

一种适用于遥测测距信号的新型码跟踪环

遥测测距技术采用再生伪码作为上行链路信号。针对飞行器现有码跟踪环结构复杂、低信噪比条件下环路跟踪性能差的问题,提出了一种新的基于锁相环的码跟踪环结构,推导了环路的信号处理流程。该结构降低了环路实现的复杂度,改善了低信噪比条件下的相位测量精度,仿真进一步验证了方法的有效性和稳定性,较现有方法在信噪比为-10 dB时能提高1.5×10－3个码片的精度,适合遥测测距技术。     

一种基于再生伪码测距的遥测信号测距方法

为了简化深空探测器无线测量系统设计,解决下行系统受功率、带宽等因素限制遥测信号和测距信号权衡设计问题,在再生伪码测距技术的基础上,提出了一种基于遥测信号测距的新方法,以遥测数据符号代替测距伪码的功能,利用地面跟踪环路对遥测信号的跟踪测量实现下行测距,减少了独立的下行测距信号。分析和仿真结果表明：新方法简化了下行信号形式,降低了系统实现复杂度,在遥测码速率为100 kbit/s左右时,随机测距误差优于传统再生伪码测距模式,且随着遥测码速率的增加测距精度进一步改善。     

一种改进的LTE系统下行同步算法

LTE（Long Term Evolution）系统中,作为小区搜索的第一步,符号定时算法需要具备很强的鲁棒性。为了进一步增强现有符号同步算法的抗频偏性能,提出了一种优化的符号同步算法。该算法一方面保持已有分段相关同步算法的优点,同时考虑结合预频偏处理来进行符号定时与粗频偏的联合估计,再将多个相关运算集做叠加处理。理论分析和仿真实验结果表明,在多径信道下,所提算法在完成符号定时和粗频偏估计的同时,大大提高了系统抗频偏性能。