A Tutorial on Palm Distributions for Spatial Point Processes

This tutorial provides an introduction to Palm distributions for spatial point processes. Initially, in the context of finite point processes, we give an explicit definition of Palm distributions in terms of their density functions. Then we review Palm distributions in the general case. Finally, we discuss some examples of Palm distributions for specific models and some applications.     

Creating legitimacy in global private governance: The case of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil

This article suggests that understanding legitimization processes of private governance initiatives requires a multi-dimensional approach. This suggestion has been operationalized in three aspects that can be used to better understand such processes: legality, moral justifications, and consent/acceptance. These aspects are based on different theoretical traditions and are applied in an analysis of the process of creating legitimacy of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO). This empirical research reveals the characteristics of the legitimization process of the RSPO and shows the value of a multi-dimensional approach. The three perspectives complement each other and deepen our insights in legitimization processes by revealing tensions and trade-offs in the different ways in which non-state market driven governance arrangements can create legitimacy.     

Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments

Oil palm plantations in Indonesia have been linked to substantial deforestation in the 1990s and 2000s, though recent studies suggest that new plantations are increasingly developed on non-forest land. Without nationwide data to establish recent baseline trends, the impact of commitments to eliminate deforestation from palm oil supply chains could therefore be overestimated. We examine the area and proportion of plantations replacing forests across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua up to 2015, and map biophysically suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. We created new maps of oil palm plantations for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and examined land cover replaced in each period. Nationwide, oil palm plantation expansion occurred at an average rate of 450,000 ha yr⁻¹, and resulted in an average of 117,000 ha yr⁻¹ of deforestation, during 1995–2015. Our analysis of the most recent five-year period (2010–2015) shows that the rate of deforestation due to new plantations has remained relatively stable since 2005, despite large increases in the extent of plantations. As a result, the proportion of plantations replacing forests decreased from 54% during 1995–2000, to 18% during 2010–2015. In addition, we estimate there are 30.2 million hectares of non-forest land nationwide which meet biophysical suitability criteria for oil palm cultivation. Our findings suggest that recent zero-deforestation commitments may not have a large impact on deforestation in Sumatra, where plantations have increasingly expanded onto non-forest land over the past twenty years, and which hosts large potentially suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. On the other hand, these pledges could have more influence in Kalimantan, where oil palm driven deforestation increased over our study period, and in Papua, a new frontier of expansion with substantial remaining forest cover.     

Understanding beliefs and concerns towards palm oil: Empirical evidence and policy implications

Over the last years palm oil has become a controversial product, due to its alleged harmful environmental and health effects. As a consequence, many food companies have taken concrete actions for meeting growing concerns. In this respect, a field survey was carried out amongst a sample of 607 Italian respondents, in order to highlight the potential effect of consumers’ attitudes towards health, social and environmental worries referred to palm oil consumption. Individual responses were statistically processed by means of a mixture model which allows for the detection of agreement and heterogeneity among respondents with respect to a given item. The results of this study suggest that respondents are worried for the current discussion on palm oil issues. This preoccupation affects both decision of purchasing and interest in further accurate knowledge. Overall, the consumer envisioned by the present study gives some hope on the effectiveness of consumer social responsibility in helping tackle food system sustainability concerns.     

Are consumers concerned about palm oil? Evidence from a lab experiment

A lab experiment evaluates the consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for food products made with and without palm oil. Palm oil production induces environmental damages, and its consumption presents a health risk. However, the production of alternative oils raises land use issues. In the experiment, successive messages emphasizing the characteristics of palm oil and palm oil-free products are delivered to participants. Information has a significant influence on WTP when it underlines the negative impact of the related product. This effect is stronger for the palm oil product than for the palm oil-free product. The experiment also compares the welfare effects of two regulatory instruments, namely a consumer information campaign versus a per-unit tax. Because of the respective attributes of both palm oil and palm oil-free products, the information campaign improves welfare with a much larger impact than the tax.     

A J–function for inhomogeneous point processes

We propose new summary statistics for intensity‐reweighted moment stationary point processes, that is, point processes with translation invariant n‐point correlation functions for all , that generalise the well known J‐, empty space, and spherical Palm contact distribution functions. We represent these statistics in terms of generating functionals and relate the inhomogeneous J‐function to the inhomogeneous reduced second moment function. Extensions to space time and marked point processes are briefly discussed.     

Building an effective coalition to improve forest policy: Lessons from the coastal Tripa peat swamp rainforest,Sumatra, Indonesia

In recent history, Indonesian forest policies have been dominated by deforestation in the name of economic progress. Many actors have expressed concerns about this trend and have tried to reverse it in favour of a more sustainable pathway. From 2004–2017, non-governmental environmental organisations fought for the case of the coastal Tripa peat swamp rainforest in the province of Aceh, Sumatra. Unique in Indonesian history, they managed halting and reversing the deforestation of an area. Their sustained action led the Indonesia state to cancel an oil palm plantation permit, with the plantation managers and owners facing heavy fines and prison terms. Our research seeks to understand the enabling factors making this success story possible. We used the Advocacy Coalition Framework for its capacity to deal with a complicated policymaking ecosystem whose decisions takes years for implementation.Our analysis found four enabling conditions of success, which were the NGOs capacity to: 1) sustain action for over a decade and grasp four changing events (post-tsunami reconstruction, emerging connection between forests and climate change, governors’ change, and use of digital technologies); 2) learn from own past failures marked by the evolution of their policy core beliefs, from ‘conserving forest for biodiversity’ to ‘conserving forest for local livelihoods’, and then to ‘conserving forest to prevent climate change’. As a result, they could broaden their advocacy coalition, which grew to include diverse social actors from local to international levels, including the central state's REDD + Task Force; 3) take an advantage over economic power by acting strategically and timely when changes occurred; and 4) closely monitor and disseminate knowledge (fire events, deforestation trends and peat depth), supporting a simple causal deforestation model which allowed a high degree of policy-oriented learning, helping the coalition to change its behaviour and act strategically.To sum up, the overall trend of rainforest destruction for agricultural extension in Southeast Asia, particularly in Sumatra, Indonesia, can be reversed, at least at the local level. Cautious not to overgeneralise, the Tripa case indicates that NGOs could improve forest governance by engaging in the long term, acting strategically, and building a broad socio-ecological and rights-based coalition.     

A historical analysis of the drivers of loss and degradation of Indonesia’s mangroves

Mangroves have been systematically exploited in Indonesia since 1800, especially for the development of brackish water shrimp aquaculture (called ‘tambak’) and for timber harvesting. By the end of the 1960s, Indonesia is estimated to have lost more than 200,000 ha of its mangroves mostly in Java and Sumatra. The rate of mangrove loss started to dramatically increase in the 1970 when exploitation shifted to new areas outside Java, particularly in Kalimantan and Sulawesi, encouraged by government policies to boost timber production, followed by policies to expand tambak in 1980s and large scale tambak development triggered by increased shrimp price during Asian financial crisis in 1997. The result has been the loss of nearly 800,000 ha of mangroves in only 30 years, mostly now in the form of low productivity or abandoned tambaks. In recent years, timber harvesting activities in Indonesia's mangroves appear to have become more sustainable. Our analysis suggests that aquaculture will continue as the main driver of change in mangrove ecosystems in Indonesia followed by palm oil plantation. Failure to deal with the current low productivity of shrimp aquaculture in many parts of Indonesia will force shrimp producers to clear an estimated 600,000 ha more mangroves to make way for shrimp farms over the next two decades. However, with improvements in brackish water aquaculture productivity, halting palm oil concession to utilise mangroves, along with maintaining other mangrove use pressures at moderate levels, the net loss of mangroves in the next two decades could be reduced to around 23,000 ha.     

尼日利亚翁多州和奥贡州小农油用棕榈生产改良技术采用的限制因素分析

虽然尼日利亚在油用棕榈的生产上具有许多有利条件，但是产量仍然呈下降的趋势。本文重点要考察的是，尼日利亚西部农民采用新技术来提高油用棕榈产量的限制因素。研究的数据来源于对翁多州和奥贡州的115户油用棕榈生产者的随机抽样。预调查和可信的问卷保证了分析的可信性。在调查的农民当中，大约有88％的农民年龄在30-59岁之间；男性所占比例为87％；有53％农民的耕地面积不足2公顷，81.7％的农民耕地面积不足4公顷。数据还显示，有70．5％的农民受过一种正规或其他种类形式的教育，只有13．9％的农民是没有受过正规教育的文盲。但是他们仍然因缺乏资金、生产成本高、收入水平低和获取土地困难等因素而难以提高产量和采用新技术。从结果的显著程度来看，只有教育水平的影响最显著，其他如农民年龄、性别和农场规模都不显著。基于以上分析，政府应该恢复对农业投入的补贴，尤其是在油用棕榈的生产上。要为生产油用棕榈的农民提供短期无息贷款或长期贷款。最后，政府还要把在油用棕榈生产带上大量的未被充分利用的土地，分配到有能力和有兴趣种植油用棕榈的农民手中。     

On statistics at level crossings by a stationary process

The main purpose of this paper is to indicate formal theorems and conditions for the extensions of Rice's Formula for intensities of crossings of a fixed level u by a stationary process X(t) in order to provide the conditional (Palm) distribution of an associated process Y(t) at the level crossing instants. Sections 1 and 2 provide brief background material on Rice's Formula and Palm distributions, while relevant historical comments and basic results are given in Section 3. These are stated with some indications of proof in Section 4 and calculation of the Palm distributions shown in Section 5. Two cases of importance in applications are considered: (a) where (roughly) X(t) , Y(t) and the derivative X'(t) have a joint density and (b) where Y(t) = X'(t) . The resulting Palm distributions are each absolutely continuous with readily calculable densities. These are evaluated for Gaussian processes in Section 6 and applications to motivating 2 structural safety questions indicated in Section 7.