Rent, risk, and replication: Preference adaptation in winner-take-all markets

We study the evolution of an economy where agents who are heterogeneous with respect to risk attitudes can either earn a certain income or enter a risky rent-seeking contest. We assume that agents behave rationally given their preferences, but that the population distribution of preferences evolves over time in response to material payoffs. We show that, in particular, initial distributions with full support converge to stationary states where all types are still present. Although rents are perfectly dissipated in material terms at a steady state, efficiency is greater than if everybody had been risk neutral, since risk lovers specialize in rent seeking.     

The market under-and-overreaction story

Using non-overlapping historical monthly returns from 1963 to 2007, this study shows that a trading portfolio that goes long on past winning stocks and short on prior losing stocks earns an average monthly return of 0.88 percent over the ensuing 12 months. However, this momentum profit is entirely wiped out by subsequent return reversals, particularly in the second and third post-formation years. A result of the three-factor Fama and French regression extended by the market momentum effect shows that the Year 1 return and the long-term price reversal （returns in Year 2 through Year 5） move in diametrically opposing directions. This evidence indicates that the market under-and-overreaction anomalies are a manifestation of a market overreaction.     

A field experiment to estimate the effects of anchoring and framing on residents’ willingness to purchase water runoff management technologies

Watersheds throughout the world have been severely polluted by nutrient-laden runoff that comes from industrial, agricultural, and residential sources. Efforts to reduce this runoff have focused on industrial and agricultural sources, while little attention has been paid to encouraging residents to reduce runoff from their properties. To study residents’ willingness to adopt landscaping practices that reduce runoff, we conducted a field experiment in the Delaware River watershed. In the experiment, over three hundred adults participated in a series of random-price auctions that revealed their willingness to pay (WTP) for five products that reduce nutrient runoff. To study how WTP can be influenced by attributes of the choice architecture, we randomized the starting bid values (anchors) and the way in which the external benefits of the five practices were framed. Compared to a neutral framing, a positive framing (using the product can improve water quality) increased average WTP by about one-third, while the estimated effect of a negative framing (failing to use the product can worsen water quality) was also positive, but smaller and not statistically different from zero. The estimated effect on average WTP from the anchor depends on how bids of $0 are modeled, but the results imply that higher anchors lead to higher WTP. Although we believe the magnitudes of our results should be considered suggestive and we recommend replications with higher statistical power, the results add to the evidence base that environmental programs can achieve policy-relevant gains in program performance through a series of small changes to the decision environment.     

关于证券市场投资者风险偏好的实证研究

根据显现偏好理论,投资者的投资行为显现了其内在的风险偏好。在本文中,采用均衡分析方法,以中国证券市场中的指数序列为样本,综合期望收益、方差,自相关系数等统计量,准确反映证券组合的投资价值,揭示市场中投资者作为一个整体所具有的风险偏好和投资组合无差异曲线的形式。     

Grocery shopping and an ageing population: research note

This study focuses on grocery shopping and an ageing population. It hypothesizes that as a population ages so there will be a change in preferences for certain service and product factors associated with grocery shopping. Survey responses were collected from 393 people and the results confirmed the expectations. To analyse the data, a multiplicative determinance model was used. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications of the findings for retailers.