The Persistence of Profits in the Long Run: A New Approach

We present a trend‐based alternative to the standard first‐order autoregression model in persistence of profits studies. This is motivated by reservations over the interpretation of the standard model, and rests on a different concept of dynamic competition. A nine‐category taxonomy of long‐run persistence stereotypes is developed. Structural time series estimates are presented for a sample of UK companies. We find the null of long run competitive equilibrium not rejected in nearly a third of cases, but non‐eroding persistence to be present in around 60%.     

中国通货膨胀的动态特征研究

现有测度通胀惯性的常用模型是仅含自身滞后因子的自回归模型,该模型不能有效反映通胀预期和波动性对通胀惯性的影响。本文在自回归模型基础上,构建了一个包含通胀惯性、学习型预期和波动性特征的通胀动态模型。该动态模型从均值和波动项两个方面反映了我国通胀水平的动态变化趋势和特征。针对上述模型不能有效反映通胀状态体制变化的缺点,本文还引入Markov机制转换模型来测度我国通胀水平的状态转移特征。利用分位数回归方法下的自回归模型、本文构建的通胀动态模型以及Markov机制转化模型实证研究了我国通胀的动态特征。分析表明:我国通胀水平具有较强的惯性特征;通胀惯性的形成机理比较复杂,学习型预期只能部分解释通胀惯性;通胀水平的状态转移时间比较长;通胀水平与其波动性有着正向的关系。     

Persistence and the four‐factor model in the Australian funds market: a note

We investigate whether Australian fund managers are able to deliver persistent performance using Carhart’s (1997) four‐factor model. Short‐ and long‐term persistence is examined and the sample is also divided into unit trusts and superannuation funds. We do not find evidence of persistence in any sample of funds. We find that winner (loser) funds tend to hold past winner (loser) stocks. Winner and loser unit trusts both appear to have positive exposure to small stocks.     

国有及国有控股企业“利挤税”的财务分析

国有及国有控股企业经营盈利时总想少上缴给国家财政,而出现亏损时总能得到国家财政补贴。本文分析了我国国有及国有控股企业“利挤税”式的税收不遵从的内生机制,并通过利润分配、利润弥补亏损、存货计价和固定资产核算的会计处理来实现。只有通过体制改革使我国经济社会发展中不需要存在的国有及国有控股企业民营化、需要存在的国有及国有控股企业财政化,才能消除“利挤税”分配机制。     

Productivity at the post: its drivers and its distribution

We study the productivity, financial and distributional performance of the United States Postal Service subsequent to its 1971 reorganization. We investigate the magnitude and the economic drivers of productivity change (technical change, change in cost efficiency, and scale economies), and we investigate the distribution of the financial benefits of productivity change (among consumers of postal services, postal employees and other resource suppliers, and residual claimants). We find improvements in technology to have been the main driver of, and diseconomies of scale to have been the main drag on, productivity change. We find labor to have been the main beneficiary, and consumers of postal services the main losers, from postal reorganization.      

Political pressures and the credibility of regulation: can profit sharing mitigate regulatory risk?

When price-cap rules determine the structure of prices for a long period, they suffer a credibility problem and introduce an element of risk especially if a firm’s profits are “too large”. Profit sharing may be seen as a device to pre-determine price adjustments and thus to decrease regulatory risk. We analyse the effects of profit sharing on the incentives to invest, using a real option approach. Absent credibility issues, a well designed profit sharing system may be neutral relative to a pure price cap. With regulatory risk, profit sharing is preferable to a pure price-cap one, if it intervenes for high enough profit levels.

供需因素博弈下常设机构利润归属方法的新思路

在传统物理经济中,囿于信息技术水平的限制,跨国企业生产经营活动以固定性、有形性、不易移动为特征,趋向于生产供应方向,且销售、市场等需求因素只是消极地提供单一消费市场,对于企业价值创造与营业利润的实现影响甚微.对此,贯彻以“以供应为基础”理论的功能独立实体法尚且能在居民国、来源国间合理划分常设机构的可归属利润.然而,经济...     

上市公司企业利润质量分析——来自国内某大型空调制造企业的实践

本文以利润表为主要分析对象,以定量分析为主要分析方法,对我国空调市场某领导企业(文中简称G公司)进行了利润质量分析与评价,以期发现目前我国上市公司利润表中存在的粉饰公司业绩、扭曲利润质量的手段与途径。