The (un)importance of geographical mobility in the Great Recession

Unemployment during and after the Great Recession has been persistently high. One concern is that the housing bust reduced geographical mobility and prevented workers from moving for jobs. We characterize flows out of unemployment that are related to geographical mobility to construct an upper bound on the effect of mobility on unemployment between 2007 and 2012. The effect of geographical mobility is always small: Using pre-recession mobility rates, decreased mobility can account for only an 11 basis points increase in the unemployment rate over the period. Using dynamics of renter geographical mobility in this period to calculate homeowner counterfactual mobility, delivers similar results. Using the highest mobility rate observed in the data, reduced mobility accounts for only a 33 basis points increase in the unemployment rate.     

当前世界经济面临的风险及其影响

2008年全球经济面临的风险是亚洲金融危机以来最严重的一次。全球经济减速，次贷危机继续恶化，油价上涨，美元贬值压力加大，通货膨胀死灰复燃。他们相互交织在一起对各国经济决策构成了极大的挑战。本文对其未来的发展趋势及其对中国经济的影响做出了一种分析。     

Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models

This paper incorporates vintage differences and forecasts into the Markov switching models described by Hamilton (1994). The vintage differences and forecasts induce parameter breaks close to the end of the sample, too close for standard maximum likelihood techniques to produce precise parameter estimates. A supplementary procedure estimates the statistical properties of the end-of-sample observations that behave differently from the rest, allowing inferred probabilities to reflect the breaks. Empirical results using real-time data show that these techniques improve the ability of a Markov switching model based on GDP and GDI to recognize the start of the 2001 recession.     

The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions

This paper analyzes Germany's unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for post-unification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules) and shocks (aggregate, labor market, and policy shocks) and to perform counterfactual exercises. We identify positive labor market performance shocks (likely caused by labor market reforms) as the key driver for the “German labor market miracle” during the Great Recession.     

Are your cash-flow tools recession ready?

In good times like those most businesses have enjoyed for the past decade, business owners have typically watched their income statements with pleasure, as year-to-year performance gains have fattened their dividend payouts and increased the valuation of the companies they own and run. All too often in such times, scant attention is paid to what’s between the top line and the bottom line of the income statement. Worse, most business owners, in my experience, give little more than a cursory nod to the balance sheet. Why does this matter? When a recession lands on their doorstep with a sudden thud, as it apparently just has, many of these same people will find themselves having sailed too close to the wind, with cash running out and a dearth of tools to help them weather the storm and understand what has gone wrong. But it need not be so, for there are four simple tools to help any business owner answer these four important questions: (1) Where is cash going in my business, and where is it coming from? (2) To what extent are my profit margins improving or declining, and why? (3) To what extent am I effectively managing the cash-flow relationships with my customers and my suppliers? (4) What, if anything, can I do to better manage the cash that flows into and out of my business? If your business is threatened by the COVID-19 pandemic, here are some tools to help it survive.     

Job reallocation in Korean manufacturing: 1984–2014

This paper investigates the patterns of job reallocation in Korean manufacturing during the period 1984–2014. Utilizing establishment-level data from the Mining and Manufacturing Survey, we construct job flow measures and document the trend of job reallocation and test its efficiency. We first find that the pace of job reallocation has diminished since the Asian Financial Crisis. Although jobs were reallocated from less productive to more productive establishments overall, we find that the productivity-enhancing effect has also diminished over time. Although recessions are known to be periods of intense reallocation and restructuring, job reallocation was not particularly more efficient during recessions in Korea. It even decreased during the Great Recession of 2008 because the exit probability of low-TFP establishments was reduced.     

Did households’ time preference change due to the Great Recession?

Household time preference for US households, as measured by the planning horizon, was fairly stable for many years, but sharply changed with the onset of the Great Recession. Based on an analysis of a combination of the 1992–2013 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) datasets, time preference increased in 2010 and remained high in 2013, indicating households were less patient after the onset of the recession. This pattern held up even after controlling for household characteristics.     

Net job creation in the US economy: lessons from monthly data, 1950–2011

This article studies the monthly net job creation (NJC) at the aggregate and the sectoral levels in the United States over the period 1950 to 2011. The article has few important findings. First, NJC did not show a significant trend over the last six decades, which led to a fall in the NJC rate. Second, NJC was very volatile and it could change course even in the span of 1 month. Third, there was no clear pattern about the co-movement between NJC and the change in the unemployment rate. Fourth, the averages of total NJC and private NJC since late 2010 were significantly higher than their respective historical averages and the volatility in NJC since the end of the Great Recession was not unusual by historical standards. Fifth, while the evidence about the effects of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on employment is inconclusive, some sectors appeared to benefit from it. Finally, the most frequent drop in the unemployment rate was by 0.1%, and drops of more than 0.2% should not be highly expected.     

美国经济会因次贷风波而衰退吗

次贷风波后弱于预期水平的美国最新经济数据加剧了市场担忧,美国经济“衰退论”大量涌现．这种极端化观点最大的弊病在于混淆了短期波动和长期趋势。结合美国经济结构特征、演化历史和最新变化,本文认为美国经济在长期内进入衰退的可能性较小,最根本的原因在于关国消费并没有出现长期萎靡的趋势,而具有易变性的投资放缓很可能是造成短期GDP增长率下降的重要因素,影响力相对较小且本身波动较大的净出口则不可能对美国长期经济增长造成较大打击。     

欧盟15国经济衰退的实证分析

本文基于欧盟15国1990—2013年的季度数据,实证分析了经济衰退与政府债务总额、进出口、失业率、薪资总额以及房价等指标之间的关系,结果发现:(1)欧盟15国在经济衰退阶段的平均振幅和累积损失分别为3.38%和5.28%,平均波长约为4个季度;(2)欧洲在2002、2008和2011年分别发生了大范围的经济同步衰退现象,政府债务和房价也随之同步变动;(3)出口、薪资总额和房价与经济衰退存在1%水平上的显著相关关系。