Past price ‘memory’ in the housing market: testing the performance of different spatio-temporal specifications

Recent methodological developments provide a way to incorporate the temporal dimension when accounting for spatial effects in hedonic pricing. Weight matrices should decompose the spatial effects into two distinct components: bidirectional contemporaneous spatial connections; and unidirectional spatio-temporal effects from past transactions. Our iterative estimation approach explicitly analyses the role of time in price determination. The results show that both spatio-temporal components should be included in model specification; past transaction information stops contributing to price determination after eight months; and limited temporal friction is exhibited within this period. These findings highlight the decidedly non-linear temporal patterns of such information effects.     

WHAT MAKES A GREAT JOURNAL GREAT IN ECONOMICS? THE SINGER NOT THE SONG

Abstract This paper analyses what makes a great journal great in economics. Alternative research assessment measures (RAM) are discussed, with an emphasis on the Thomson Reuters Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science database. ISI RAM that are calculated annually or updated daily are defined, including the classic 2‐year impact factor (2YIF), 5‐year impact factor (5YIF), immediacy (zero‐year impact factor (0YIF)), eigenfactor score, article influence, citation performance per paper online, h‐index, Zinfluence, PI‐BETA (papers ignored ‐ by even the authors) and two new RAM measures, self‐citation threshold approval rating and impact factor inflation. The data are analysed for the most highly cited journals in economics, management, business and business–finance on the basis of 2YIF. In addition to evaluating research in the most highly cited journals in economics, management, business and business–finance, the paper evaluates alternative RAM, highlights similarities and differences in RAM criteria, finds that several RAM capture similar performance characteristics, and finds that immediacy and PI‐BETA are not highly correlated with other RAM. Harmonic mean rankings of the 12 RAM criteria are also presented. Emphasizing 2YIF to the exclusion of other useful RAM criteria can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal performance and influence.     

Exploring how innovation strategies at time of crisis influence performance: a cluster analysis perspective

This paper analyzes the connection between innovation activities of companies – implemented before crisis – and their performance – measured at time of crisis. The companies listed in the STAR Market Segment of the Italian Stock Exchange are analyzed. Innovation is measured through the level of investments in total tangible and intangible fixed assets in 2006–2007, while performance is captured through growth – expressed by variations of sales, total assets and employees – profitability – through ROI or ROS – and productivity – through asset turnover or sales per employee in the period 2008–2010. The variables of interest are analyzed and compared through statistical techniques and by adopting cluster analysis. In particular, a Voronoi tessellation is also implemented in a varying centroids framework. In accord with a large part of the literature, we find that the behaviour of the performance of the companies is not univocal when they innovate.     

Measuring the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity with a fractionally integrated STAR model

Empirically, elements of both fractional long memory and threshold non-linearity are present in the real exchange rates of the G-7 countries against the US, notably in the EU countries. Estimated half lives of deviations from PPP using median unbiased corrections to conventional linear autoregressive models corroborate existing evidence related to the PPP paradox as half lives range from at least four years to an infinite number of years. In contrast, for each EU country, accounting for threshold non-linearity results in estimated half lives that can be less than three years even with the allowance for fractional long memory.     

Testing nonlinearities in economic growth in the OECD countries: an evidence from SETAR and STAR models

This study estimates the Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) and Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models and examines the nonlinear and regime switching dynamics of economic growth for a set of 10 OECD countries. The null of linearity in SETAR model is tested using the recursive polynomial F test of Tsay and the bootstrap based supremum, average and exponential average Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests of Hansen. The F test of Tsay rejects the null of linearity for all the countries, except Spain and Switzerland. The SETAR model of Hansen reinforces the evidence and suggests the rejection of linear model. The STAR model rejects the null of linearity against STAR nonlinearity for all the countries, except Denmark and Switzerland. The sequential F tests for the conditional nulls suggest the LSTAR nonlinearity for Australia, Belgium, France, Sweden and UK, and the ESTAR nonlinearity for Canada, Spain and the USA.     

A GIS-based toolkit for route choice analysis

This paper develops and applies the route choice analysis (RCA) toolkit. This GIS-based toolkit generates a suite of over 40 variables describing route characteristics such as distance, travel time, speed statistics, number of intersections, number of turns, number of stop signs/stop lights, and a measure of route circuity, to name a few. The input to the toolkit is one or more routes, which can be obtained from global positioning system (GPS) data or some other means (e.g., shortest path). While the toolkit is designed to support route choice modeling by generating variables that have been tested in previous modeling efforts, we demonstrate its utility by testing the hypothesis that workers choose routes to minimize either travel time or distance between home and work. A GPS-enhanced data set of 237 observed routes for home-to-work trips collected for auto drivers in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada is used in our analysis. We find that the null hypothesis is refuted - that is, a comparison of observed routes to their shortest-path alternatives based on time and distance via inferential statistics indicates that observed routes are significantly longer compared to their alternatives. This finding suggests that workers may choose routes based on other route attributes. The attributes generated by the RCA toolkit for observed, shortest time, and shortest distance routes are compared and significant differences are noted.     

IS THERE AN ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOUR IN AFRICAN INFLATION? A NON‐LINEAR APPROACH

In this paper we test the inflation persistence hypothesis as well as model the long‐run behaviour of inflation rates in a pool of African countries using a non‐linear framework. In order to do so, we rely on unit root tests applied to non‐linear models and fractional integration. The results show that the hypothesis of inflation persistence does not hold empirically for most of the countries. In addition, the estimated models (logistic smooth transition autoregressions) are stable in the sense that the variable tends to remain in the regime (low inflation or high inflation) once reached, and changes between regimes are only achieved after a shock. The results also indicate that the effects of the shocks on inflation tend to die out; exogenous factors, i.e. supply shocks and inertia may be causing this outcome, as they play a substantial role in the determination of the inflation rates for our selected African countries.     

城市创新创业环境有助于企业创新效率提升吗——来自科创板上市公司的经验证据

运用三阶段DEA模型对已注册通过的65家科创板企业创新效率进行测度与评价,然后利用fsQCA方法探讨创新效率提升的前因条件组合。结果表明,我国科创板上市企业创新效率整体表现欠佳,城市创新创业环境中的政策环境、人才环境和金融支持正向促进企业创新效率提升,产业环境和金融中介市场对企业创新效率的提升作用具有不确定性,城市经济发展水平、政府补贴和城市研发环境导致企业创新投入冗余增加,不利于企业创新效率提升;科创板上市企业创新效率实现路径由政策环境主导型和中介市场主导型构成,城市创新环境失衡、产业环境与金融支持缺失是造成部分企业创新效率相对偏低的主要原因。通过系统分析外部环境规制对科创板上市企业创新效率的影响,并基于组态视角解释企业提高创新效率的内在逻辑和路径,为进一步提升我国科创企业创新效率提供决策参考。     

Regional Housing Prices in the USA: An Empirical Investigation of Nonlinearity

Existing literature on housing prices is predominantly in a linear framework, and an important question that has not been addressed is whether housing prices exhibit nonlinearity. We examine Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model based nonlinear properties of housing prices over the 1969–2004 period for the entire US and the four regions. Our main findings are (1) housing price for the entire US and all regions except for the Midwest show non-linearity, (2) the dynamic properties implied by the nonlinear estimation explain the typical patterns that have characterized each housing market, and (3) results of Granger causality tests look more plausible in the nonlinear framework where we find stronger evidence of Granger causality from housing price to employment and also from mortgage rates to housing price.

基于STAR模型的中日汇率态势检验

改革开放是我国发展壮大的必经之路.其过程离不开与其他国家或地区的经济交往,因此必然受到国外经济的影响.随着我国经济开放程度的不断扩大,汇率的变动对我国经济变动的影响也越来越大.在我国对外贸易中,日本是一个不容忽视的贸易对象国,本文采用基于STAR模型的KSS非线性单位根检验分析法和传统的ADF与PP检验对中日实际汇率进行了实证检验,检验结果表明,我国汇率符合购买力平价理论,这说明现有的参考一篮子货币的有管理的浮动汇率制度正逐步达到市场有效性和预期效果,应继续发挥市场供求在人民币汇率形成中的基础性作用,增强浮动弹性.