我国城市规模分布Pareto指数测算及影响因素分析

本文用OLS方法测算我国各省、三大区域以及全国的城市人口规模分布和经济规模分布Pareto指数(1997年、2000年和2003年),对Pareto指数进行跨区域和跨时间的对比分析,并实证分析我国城市规模分布的影响因素。分析表明,我国的城市规模分布显著地服从Pareto分布,并具有明显的结构性特征。工业化、产业结构以及运输能力对城市人口规模分布具有显著影响,而工业化和运输能力则是影响城市经济规模分布的重要因素。     

Assessment and selection of management consultants: A comparative cognitive study between small- and large-scale companies

This paper explores alternative ways of evaluating and ultimately hiring a generalist consultancy for short- and medium-term projects, and how this is shaped by the size of the clients’ company. What buying factors do managers of small and large firms have in mind when hiring consultants for their projects?Instead of employing surveys incorporating predefined buying factors based on what the researchers think would be important, a cognitive mapping methodology - the repertory grid technique - is applied to investigate the underlying phenomena. Using the repertory grid technique to draw mental models is a novel research technique within the supply management field. Recent behavioral supply chain management research found the behavior of managers to be critically influenced by mental models: the lenses through which managers perceive, simplify and interpret the world.Results show differences between the buying factors used in small- and large-scale companies: managers of large companies are more ‘reputation and outcome-oriented’ and managers of small businesses are more concerned with ‘how the services are rendered’. However, both constituents stressed the importance of expertise, quality and the relationship between the client and the management consultancy, although the character of such a relationship differed between small- and large-scale firms. Results also point out criteria that managers of small and large companies employ to discriminate between good and poor performing consultancies and to judge service delivery. The practical implications for both companies hiring consultancies and the consultancy companies are discussed. For consultancies, our findings can help tailoring their efforts to a differing clientele when marketing and selling their services. For companies hiring consultancies, fixating too much on particular buying factors may lead to biased decisions.     

中国A股市场规模溢价与价值溢价成因研究

金融理论界对规模溢价与价值溢价现象的困惑与争论由来已久，对上述现象的理论解释可以归纳为传统范式与行为范式。前者认为，溢价是对高风险的补偿，后者则认为，溢价源是对过度反应的纠正。为了弄清溢价形成的真正原因，本文对1993——2003年中国深沪A股进行了实证分析，研究发现：中国A股市场存在规模与价值溢价现象，但上述两种范式的解释均存在一定的局限性。本文借鉴展望理论的参照依赖原理，提出相对盈利的概念，并对溢价现象予以新的解释。     

The effect of management incentives and cross-listing status on the accounting treatment of R&D spending

This paper investigates the effect of management incentives and cross-listing status on the accounting treatment of research and development (R&D) spending for a sample of Canadian hi-tech and biopharmaceutical firms. U.S. GAAP adopts an immediate expensing rule for all R&D spending except for software development costs for which technological feasibility has been established. Contrary to the U.S., Canadian and international standard setters recommend capitalization if development costs meet certain criteria. Because those criteria are largely based on management judgment, capitalization of R&D spending is an accounting choice that can be used for income manipulation or signaling.Using a logit model, we examine how the decision to capitalize R&D spending is influenced by the cross-listing status and several other key firm characteristics that are well documented in the accounting literature. We find that the probability of capitalizing R&D spending increases for cross-listed and non-cross-listed firms in the software industry. The probability of capitalizing R&D spending also increases for firms that are more leveraged, more mature, and have higher level of cash flows from operations. However, the probability of capitalizing R&D spending decreases for larger corporations, firms with more concentrated ownership and highly profitable firms. Overall our results indicate a preference for Canadian firms in the software industry to emulate U.S. accounting practices for R&D spending. They also suggest that firms use the decision to capitalize or expense R&D spending as an earning management tool to either meet debt covenants or to smooth income.     

逃税规模的衡量

逃税造成了政府财政收入的减少,因而政府理所当然地关心社会中的逃税程度,而且逃税程度的大小也代表了一国税务机关税收征管成效的高低.因此从这个意义上讲,对逃税规模的衡量就显得必要了.不过,由于纳税人的逃税行为是隐蔽的,故很难对逃税规模进行直接有效的衡量,尽管如此,还是存在一些方法从侧面去测算一国的逃税规模的.     

Monetary policy and stock valuation: structural VAR identification and size effects

This paper examines the relationship between the US monetary policy and stock valuation using a structural VAR framework that allows for the simultaneous interaction between the federal funds rate and stock market developments based on the assumption of long-run monetary neutrality. The results confirm a strong, negative and significant monetary policy tightening effect on real stock prices. Furthermore, we provide evidence consistent with a delayed response of small stocks to monetary policy shocks relative to large stocks.     

Resurrecting the size effect: Evidence from a panel nonlinear cointegration model for the G7 stock markets

Firm size is known to be an important factor affecting stock returns. This study proposes a panel threshold cointegration model to investigate the impact of the size effect on stock returns for the panel of G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. over the period 1991:1–2012:12. The empirical analysis is based upon the nonlinear cointegration framework using the asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology (Shin et al., 2011). This methodological approach permits a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process toward equilibrium, than in the classical linear model. Our findings indicate the presence of asymmetric adjustment around a unique long-run equilibrium. In particular, the empirical analysis provides evidence of asymmetric effects between stock returns and the size effect, while controlling for the book-to-market ratio and the price-to-earnings ratio.     

On the differences in measuring SMB and HML in the UK – Do they matter?

The Fama–French (FF) three factor model expands the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to include two additional factors to the market factor – SMB, employed to capture a firm size effect in returns and HML employed to capture book-to-market effects in returns. In the UK, different researchers use different ways of calculating SMB and HML in the context of empirical applications of the three factor model, or extensions of it, perhaps because they believe the differences in the construction of the SMB and HML factors to be relatively unimportant from an empirical standpoint. We investigate whether indeed factor construction methods are unimportant. Our conclusion is that they do matter.     

Stock price synchronicity to oil shocks across quantiles: Evidence from Chinese oil firms

This paper investigates behaviour of stock price synchronicity to oil shocks across quantiles for Chinese oil firms. The spillover effects of the oil market on a firm are segregated into firm-specific and market-wide information. First, our results report a higher level of synchronicity by dynamic conditional correlations than by R-square since the former better captures dynamic linear dependence. Second, we find strong evidence of size effect. In particular, stock price synchronicity is generally higher in large-cap firms than in small-cap ones. Oil shocks affect synchronicity in the upper quantiles differently based on firm size. Third, we also find that synchronicity responds to oil shocks significantly in extreme low quantiles, implying that shocks in the oil market are transmitted to Chinese oil firms via firm-specific information. Finally, we determine that oil shocks have little or no immediate impact on stock price synchronicity; instead, cumulative lagged effect is evident. This evidence highlights the lagging effect of spillover of oil shocks on Chinese oil firms.     

零售企业扩张实践质疑威廉姆森命题

"复制和选择性干预不可能",是威廉姆森关于企业规模边界的一个颇具权威性的命题,但是本文认为,这个命题已遭到零售企业扩张实践的质疑,沃尔玛、家乐福等零售企业的扩张恰恰是由"复制和选择性干预"所支撑的.本文从零售企业"类似性活动"业务属性和"订购性生产"经营特征分析切入,对零售企业扩张中"复制和选择性干预"成为可能的深层原因进行了探讨.最后,文章认为,威廉姆森命题的遭遇与经济学的某种局限有关,这种局限的直接表现是经济学一直都将企业默认为生产企业,忽略流通企业的特殊属性,"工商合一"、"以工代商".文章对这种表象背后的原因也作了一定的分析.