基于我国货物出口轨迹及效应分析的出口贸易战略调整取向

改革开放以来,我国根据各个时期所处国际国内环境的变化,制定了不同的出口贸易发展战略,取得了举世瞩目的成就,从1981年到2005年六个五年计划期间,我国出口额增长了34倍,由世界32位成长为世界第三大贸易国。但根据六个五年计划的出口贸易轨迹来看,还存在一些问题,另外国际国内环境不断变化,需要我们调整贸易战略,以适应不同的环境,完成我国从贸易大国向贸易强国的转变。     

What do interest rates reveal about the functioning of real business cycle models?

This paper begins by documenting the extent to which the predictions of standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) models are incompatible with observed movements in real interest rates. The main finding of the paper is that extending the baseline model to include habit persistence in consumption and adjustment costs to capital significantly improves the model's empirical performance. In our evaluation of the model's performance, we take special care of estimating and testing predictions of the model using both moments drawn directly from the data and moments calculated after identifying shocks to the stochastic trend.     

国有企业资本结构分析

资本结构问题是国有企业最突出的问题之一。解决好这个问题，没有现成的模式可供借鉴。本文紧密结合我国实际，深入分析我国国有企业资本结构问题的性质和特点，针时性地提出几条措施，建议在现代科学理论指导下，增强意识，增加知识，增长见识，锻炼胆识，努力探索和积极实践适合我国国情的资本结构优化机制。     

对收入差距问题的思考

目前，我国的收入差距尚在可控制范围之内，我们应根据收入差距的不同成因采取不同措施对其进行合理调节，但这种调节并不必然会带来收入差距缩小的结果，税收在当前也不是一种有效的调节手段。     

On the forecastability of share prices on the Viennese stock exchange

In this paper the Viennese stock exchange data are analysed by using ARMA and GARCH technology. After using AIC and BIC for estimating the linear structure of the time series, to the resulting innovations a GARCH(1,1) model is fit. The resulting residuals are then tested for serial independence and constancy of its distribution to check whether the models are reasonable. Main result is that the residuals of this ARMA-GARCH(1,1)-model are reasonably iid (which is checked by BDS and classical independence tests) for index data and significantly less well-behaved for stock data. Second, there is considerable autocorrelation in the data (especially in the Viennese indices WBK and ATX) which can be exploited even with 1.25% transaction costs (which is checked by a posteriori analysis of a strategy which exploits an underlying time-varying AR(1) model), however, much higher profit can be made with 0.5% transaction costs. Furthermore, the same techniques are applied to US Standard & Poor 500 index and the results for both data sets are compared giving the result that the US-market looks much more mature than the Viennese one.Financial Support by the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, and the Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Vienna, Grant P 9176 is gratefully acknowledged. This paper is a slightly abbreviated version of the Research Report No. 135 by the same authors (see References), which contains many detailed plots of the results.     

中国养老保险领域的政府七大职能分析

养老日益成为中国走向和谐社会的沉重负担,经济可持续发展要求中国在养老保险制度领域对政府职能进行调整.文章对政府职能和养老保险制度关系作了理论概述,针对当前政府逐渐退出养老保险职能的趋势,论文分析了中国当前混合制养老保险模式下政府的七项职能,结论是均应增强这七项职能,但要科学选择介入领域和介入方式.     

中西部地区经济结构调整优化可利用的优势

经济结构调整是我国经济发展的重大战略。中西部地区在结构调整中具有资源丰富、市场潜力巨大、边境线长、沉淀成本低等优势 ,充分利用这些优势 ,可以有力地促进中西部地区经济结构的顺利调整。     

我国中小城市经济结构战略性调整的新思路

经济结构调整是我国“十五”期间经济工作的一条主线。中小城市是我国整个城市化体系的基础，同时也是我国小农经济向现代工业经济发展的桥梁和纽带，中小城市要在现代社会和经济的发展大潮中发挥并保持其基础地位，就必须伴随宏观经济结构的新趋势进行相应的调整，以形成先进的生产力，推进跨越式发展。     

实现社会公平是政府财政不可推卸的责任

当前我国在收入分配上出现了比较严重的分配不公现象,分配不公问题已经严重的影响了我国经济和社会的发展,分析其产生的原因,除了经济方面以外,还有其他方面,本文主要从政府行为方面做一些分析,以求在政府财政政策方面做一些探讨。     

关于我国贸易战略调整的探讨

随着日益扩大的出口,以及外汇储备的增长,我国的改革开放已经到了一个新的阶段．其中对外贸易战略正经历调整,即从出口至上转向进出口平衡发展。贸易战略调整。需在贸易发展的理论背景下及经济发展的现实基础上,确定特定阶段下的贸易战略调整重点。关于我国贸易战略及其调整问题,国内学者多有争论,本文在不同学者观点基础上进行梳理和探讨。