Investment decisions in the wireless industry applying real options

The wireless industry is one of the most capital intensive high-technology industries. This paper applies real options techniques to estimate investments under uncertainty in two new ventures: (a) deferral of the expansion from 2.5G to 3G networks; and (b) expansion of a 2.5G network using Wi-Fi as an alternative technology. The cases are examined and analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively, using realistic assumptions and parameters. Investment cost, number of subscribers, pricing of services, and risk are at the core of investment decision processing. In both cases, sensitivity analysis of the value of the (real) option considering the above key parameters was conducted, to extrapolate useful findings that should be taken into consideration by the decision makers in wireless companies.     

第三代移动通信系统中用户移动性模型的研究

本文在研究第三代移动通信系统特点和分析UMTS标准模型与可扩展模型的优缺点的基础上，建立了适用于第三代移动通信系统的综合模型，研究和分析了不同类型用户情况下该综合模型的信道占用时间，并给出了仿真结果。     

Achieving low-cost UMTS networks via pricing

One of the main concerns of mobile operators towards deployment of Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) networks is the investment cost. The costly radio access network, based on the network equipment required in a service area, prevents incumbents and new entrants from upgrading or building a new UMTS network. In this article, a novel, low-cost approach to the UMTS radio access network design is proposed. The approach employs the use of pricing incentives. This approach is based on the assumption that a pricing mechanism is in place to control excessive traffic load during peak periods. By incorporating this assumption into the network design, the network designer is able to relax certain design parameters, which may contribute to significant savings in equipment cost. Investigation is focused on the UMTS coverage and capacity planning, using the Net Present Value (NPV) financial analysis. For certain price-sensitivity levels, the analysis indicates that this approach provides a suitable strategy for mobile operators to comfortably move forward with UMTS upgrade and gain competitive edge in the wireless market.     

Migration to 3G wireless broadband internet and real options: The case of an operator in India

The paper focuses on third generation wireless technologies and on alternative technologies for wireless local area networks. The authors present the evolutionary migration path from second to third generation systems. Technological, economic and behavioral factors related to decision-making towards the migration are proposed. As an example, the paper studies the case of the national incumbent operator of India. It analyzes qualitatively the migration problem from the perspective of the operator, the equipment manufacturer and the users. For the quantitative analysis, real options are used to value the investment decisions. The analysis suggests that the initial (sunk) investment cost, the average revenue per user, the growth of the subscriber base and the volatility of the markets are the key factors in the investment process.     

Bids for the UMTS system: An empirical evaluation of the Italian case

The aim of this paper is to analyze the licensing of the telecommunication spectrum as a public good and the search for equilibrium prices through bilateral bargaining and multilateral bidding. It develops a general model of price setting under dynamic uncertainty and applies it to the Italian auction for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS). The empirical application shows that the model can be used both to determine the base price as well as other desirable characteristics to organize an auction and to better understand, after the auction is closed, what really happened in terms of the critical factors involved. After recalling some basic concepts on spectrum rights and reviewing the general experience with UMTS auctions in Europe, the formal model and its application are presented. The results confirm certain views on the Italian auction, which are widely shared but were never tested before, namely that: (i) given the initial price, the number of licenses offered for the bidding should have been fewer, or alternatively, (ii) given the number of licenses, the base price should have been higher and (iii) the main bidder underpaid for the license. The model also allows us to quantify the bidders’ reservation price and the State and the bidders’ implicit bargaining powers.     

3G通信网络的H.264标准问题的若干思考

无线通信领域的技术和应用也在迅速发展,移动终端传输视频流将成为3G网络成功的一个重要应用之一。移动终端的最新视频应用为3G应用提供了很好的铺垫。如:应用于视频电话和视频会议的电路交换和包交换会话服务(PCS),应用于直播和视频录象的包交换流媒体服务(PSS)和多媒体信息服务(MMS)等。因此,如何把流媒体算法更好地切入进移动通信领域,是当今最受关注的热点之一,本文将分析把H.264应用在基于IP的3G网络时的性能。     

浅谈UMTS网优策略与方法

UMTS的网络优化服务能为运营商在3G移动网络中带来巨大的收益。它为移动运营商提供有竞争力、高效率的网络,从而改善服务质量,吸引更多的最终客户,并可大大节约企业的运营成本。文章探讨了UMTS网络规划的特点、UMTS网络规划的内容,以及UMTS网络规划的方法。     

Strategic investment analysis for migration beyond 3G wireless networks

This paper analyzes investment alternatives for cellular operators who deploy either universal mobile telecommunications systems (UMTS) with high speed data packet access (HSDPA) networks or UMTS with Wi-Fi networks, for moving beyond 3G-networks. The evaluated business scenarios focus on two different deployment alternatives: UMTS with HSDPA and UMTS integrated with Wi-Fi. HSDPA deployment targets the overlay on the existing UMTS cells, whereas Wi-Fi covers only indoor hot spot areas where data demand is high. Capital investments and operational costs as well as revenue streams have been analyzed for the two types of network architectures. Techno-economic methodologies have been applied for this study and results are derived that are presented and discussed for two types of wireless networks.