Data-based mechanistic modelling and forecasting globally averaged surface temperature

The main objective of this paper it to model the dynamic relationship between global averaged measures of Total Radiative Forcing (RTF) and surface temperature, measured by the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), and then use this model to forecast the GTA. The analysis utilizes the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to the modelling and forecasting where, in this application, the unobserved component model includes a novel hybrid Box-Jenkins stochastic model in which the relationship between RTF and GTA is based on a continuous time transfer function (differential equation) model. This model then provides the basis for short term, inter-annual to decadal, forecasting of the GTA, using a transfer function form of the Kalman Filter, which produces a good prediction of the ‘pause’ or ‘levelling’ in the temperature rise over the period 2000 to 2011. This derives in part from the effects of a quasi-periodic component that is modelled and forecast by a Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) relationship and is shown to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index.     

An Examination of the Interaction Between Modelling and Its Relationship with Construction Kits: Lessons from the Past and for the Future

Construction kits have played a significant part in nurturing the growth and development of the minds and manipulation-based skills of children (and adults) in formal and non-formal education settings. These kits have origins rooted in the representation of the built world and now have a diversity of form and function, including technical versions with moving parts. This article examines some of the historically based ideas that lie behind the role that kits may have in terms of physical modelling. The article traces the transformation of kits from simple bricks and blocks into more complicated pieces for space-filling and achieving the transfer of forces and motion. This transformation occurred during the Victorian era when the influence of the ideas of educationalists and, perhaps rather strangely, exponents of early aviation, played major roles in determining the diversity of forms of construction kit and modelled possibilities that are now to be seen in classrooms and homes. The article ends with a review of some of the lessons from the past and present that will need to be considered in relation to concrete modelling in schools for the future. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon: the case of São Félix do Xingú in South Pará

The Amazon is the largest tropical forest area on Earth, and has been undergoing rapid deforestation for the last four decades. In the Brazilian Amazon, large‐scale pasture for cattle ranching and soybean production are the main land uses, leading to a yearly deforestation rate of 0.5%. These conversions are mostly located in frontier areas distributed along the so‐called “arc of deforestation”. Within this large zone, various land use change processes are interacting through several modes of land valuation and organisation. From several case studies in the State of Pará (Brazil), the current project aims at analysing how landscape dynamics are related to infrastructure development, ecological conditions, zoning policies and to the evolution and the organisation of the production, consumption and marketing chains of livestock products. This paper presents the results for one test site, the region of São Félix do Xingú, South of Pará This region is the focus of land speculation, cattle expansion, and deforestation. Road construction, investments in electrical energy, financial credit for cattle, and the land reform policies have all fuelled this process. All these factors make this region one of the most dynamic agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. The main objective of the paper is to improve our understanding of deforestation processes by crossing spatial analyses and 1ivestock economics.studies, and to characterise the role and impact of various natural and anthropic factors in the location and development of the main types of farmers, and their policy implications.     

Learning in Design and Technology: The Impact of Social and Cultural Influences on Modelling

The paper introduces the highly problematic nature of modelling in design and technology education and examines the relationship between cognitive and concrete modelling. Its aim is to gain insight into what learners do, rather than what others say they ought to do in their learning activities. The variety of purposes that educators have for learners’ modelling are discussed through examining the contested curriculum justification for design and technology education itself. The paper proposes that learners’ modelling cannot be extracted from the social milieu in which they act and it provides some insights of these social influences through the analysis of two case studies. Their settings are a girls’ secondary school and a college of higher education. Each case study is presented independently but organised with a common format to consider a) the impact of assessment on learning intentions and outcomes; b) cultural influences on learning and modelling; c) social influences on learning and modelling. A discussion of the emergent themes considers implications for teachers. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain

This paper considers the extent to which price and income proxy variables help in forecasting tourist demand in Spain. Contrary to some recent studies, we found that the inputs' contribution in terms of fitting and forecasting is nil when compared with alternative univariate models. Whether these findings are the results of the restrictions embedded in building the proxy inputs or in a poor specification of the dynamics of these models remains to be seen. We also contend that when dealing with medium, long-term forecasting comparisons, the use of the traditional aggregate accuracy measures like RMSE and MAPE help very little in discriminating among competing models. In these situations, predicted annual growth rates may be a better alternative.     

Make One——基于软件功能构件的通用电子设备模式研究

首先，指出并分析了基于传统的系统体系结构模式而设计的信息设备与其应用功能之间存在整体堆积性和时空不变性的优缺点；然后，根据先进的信息产品应用功能软件化、构件化的思想，提出一种新的设备与应用功能可互相分离、应用功能构件可重载的Make One设备模式，讨论了Make One模式设备的功能结构特点；进而，给出了一个Make One设备模型的嵌入式容器－构件实现方案；最后，探讨了在互联网环境下Make One模式的应用服务体系。     

Extending working hours: why not work 42 h rather than 38?—a CGE analysis for Germany

Faced with a record level of unemployment, the present debate in Germany is to extend the weekly hours of work. In this paper the employment effects of an economy-wide increase in weekly hours are quantified on the basis of a computable general equilibrium model for different specifications of the wage setting rule and the use of additional policy-induced public income. The simulation results back the argument of the opponents of longer working time that not more jobs will be created. However, when the higher tax revenues from GDP growth are used to reduce social security contributions, then the claim of the proponents that more jobs will be created can be supported.     

基于主成份分析的江苏省各市区经济发展潜力评价

本文选取15项适当的主要经济指标构建了评价指标体系,基于主成分分析法和SPSS12.0数据处理,对江苏省13个市(区)进行了定量分析。根据各地区的综合得分以及排名评价了江苏各市区的经济发展水平同时指出了各地区社会经济发展不平衡的原因,提出相应的对策,为挖掘江苏社会经济发展的潜力提供了一定的借鉴作用。     

高校网上招生系统的后续开发与研究

针对目前院校端网上招生录取系统存在的局限性,文章详细介绍了高校网上招生后续开发管理系统的功能,讨论了系统实现中的关键技术及实现方法,指出该系统采用分布式计算技术,建立基于组件的3层C/S模型的体系结构,具有高效性、可伸缩性、开发周期短、安全性高的特点。     

基于价值工程的项目团队人员配置的构件化管理

根据软件工程中软件开发模块构件化与项目管理中项目职能分解的相似性,把构件化方法引入到项目团队人员配置中,按照项目职能的构件并灌以价值最大化的思想来进行项目团队人员的选择方面的应用,并为企业建立项目人员配置构件化的管理体系,来实现满足人力配置需要,降低费用,长期改进发展的目的。