巴菲特与索罗斯财富策略评析

巴菲特通过股票市场投资实体经济企业,获得财富长期稳定增长的事实,证明了马克思主义财富来源于实体经济以及实体经济对虚拟资本起决定作用的观点;索罗斯虚拟资本投机获得财富快速波动性增长的事实,则证明虚拟资本市场运作是财富的分配与再分配,虚拟资本对实体经济有反作用。     

Can Warren Buffett forecast equity market corrections?

Warren Buffett suggested that the ratio of the market value of all publicly traded stocks to the Gross National Product could identify potential overvaluations and undervaluations in the US equity market when this ratio deviates above 120% or below 80%. We investigate whether this ratio is a statistically significant predictor of equity market corrections and rallies. We find that Buffett's decision rule does not deliver satisfactory forecasts. However, when we adopt a time-varying decision rule, the ratio becomes a statistically significant predictor of equity market corrections. The two time-varying decision rules are: (i) predict an equity market correction when the ratio exceeds a 95% one-tail confidence interval based on a normal distribution, and (ii) predict an equity market correction when the ratio exceeds a threshold computed using Cantelli's inequality. These new decision rules are robust to changes in the two key parameters: the confidence level and the forecasting horizon. This paper also shows that the MV/GNP ratio performs relatively well against the four most popular equity market correction models, but the ratio is not a particularly useful predictor of equity market rallies.     

MRO parts service in the machine tool industry

This article examines the post purchase Parts servicing of Machine Tools. Survey results outline the policies and criteria that influence the degree to which replacement parts will be provided for old machines. The survey indicates that the policies of some American manufacturers leave service gaps that can be exploited by foreign as well as domestic competitors.     

Industrial product managers: Authority and responsibility

This exporatory study concentrated on large industrial firms. The data indicate the IPM is well accepted, and has a very bright future. Their authority and responsibilities are similar to consumer goods PM's with technical aspects being the exceptions.     

Postcard reminders versus replacement questionnaires and mail survey response rates from a professional population

Nonresponse is a major problem in the use of mail questionnaires. The great number of variables that can influence response rates has resulted in an extensive literature on the subject, but a literature that is restricted to few examples of replication. Moreover, many of the studies reported in the literature were not conducted under controlled conditions. This article presents the results of a study using a single-factor experimental design to test the efficacy of two different follow-up forms in improving response rates. The results indicate that replacement questionnaires are to be preferred over postcard reminders when using a one-time follow-up in surveying a professional population.     

Labor market differentials and the expected gain from search

Several recent empirical studies have used the residuals from estimated earnings equations as explanatory variables in models of on-the-job search and quit behavior. It has often been argued that the coefficients on these “market differential” variables are biased downward because estimated residuals overstate the “true” quasi-rent or disincentive to search for alternative employment. This argument—that observed wages include implicit payments for workplace and person-specific characteristics not fully specified in earnings models— ignores an opposing bias associated with the value of being able to reject unattractive wage offers. As a consequence, there is no unambiguous a priori relationship between estimated wage residuals and the theoretical expected gain from search. Some evidence bearing on the relative magnitudes of the two biases is discussed.     

From Experience: Building Balanced Innovation Teams

If we could match the natural abilities of people to the different tasks of an innovation team, we could get more effective teams and more satisfied people. Warren Lamb uses a special way of assessing the natural ability of people and a special way of defining managerial tasks to help organizations achieve productive matchings. His approach is intriguing—and successful.