Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

企业非相关多元化经营的战略路径与风险规避——基于春兰集团多元化经营战略案例研究

春兰集团是中国较早走上多元化之路的大型企业集团,先后进军摩托车、卡车、高能动力镍氢电池、投资贸易等领域,形成了产品多元化经营的格局。春兰集团实施非相关多元化经营的战略路径是:以掌握产业核心技术为战略核心;以企业并购为战略重点;以整体绩效为战略目标。企业非相关多元化经营的风险甚大,必须采取相应措施予以规避:科学选择多元化经营的进入领域;确保企业的核心竞争力不受削弱;注意"协同效应";保持合理的负债水平;要注重规模经济的效应。     

The phoneless in the broadband age: A pilot study in Massachusetts

Questions about universal service continue to evolve as information and communication technology advances, bringing new platforms, services, and business models. Concerns about exclusion remain, particularly in times of transition to new technologies and platforms. While the universal service literature is rich in econometric studies that indicate the drivers of household telephone penetration, without qualitative data directly from those households that experience phonelessness, we cannot understand the causes well enough to design effective policy. This research explores why people are phoneless in the current environment of increased platform and business model choices. Particular focus is placed on understanding the relationship between new technology, platforms and business models and phonelessness. Data is obtained from surveys completed by approximately 100 individuals in Massachusetts who are currently without any voice connection, either landline or mobile, or have been sometime in the past ten years. The survey includes questions about different platforms and communication services in order to learn how they have led to phonelessness. The results of the pilot study show that the vast majority of phoneless households do not choose to be phoneless. The study also shows that the most frequent causes of phonelessness in this population are unemployment and unpredictable bills. Many instances of unpredictable bills leading to phonelessness occur with wireless service or bundled services but are the result of business models for service provision rather than the platforms themselves. Prepaid wireless service is a market-based solution that helps households prevent phonelessness by reducing unpredictability. Universal service policy for voice and broadband can better reduce exclusion with greater attention to business models and practices versus technologies and platforms, and increased emphasis on prepaid service to reduce unpredictability.     

相关瑞利衰落信道下空时分组编码性能分析

目前对空时编码的研究大都是基于信道是独立的假设下进行的,然而在实际系统中独立性假设是不成立的。基于此,研究了信道的相关性对空时编码性能的影响。计算机仿真结果表明：由于衰落信道的相关性,系统性能有所下降,且系统性能关于相关系数存在“地板效应”,即相关系数小于某一数值时,对系统性能的影响较小;当大于此值时,系统性能就会急剧下降。     

Investment decisions in the wireless industry applying real options

The wireless industry is one of the most capital intensive high-technology industries. This paper applies real options techniques to estimate investments under uncertainty in two new ventures: (a) deferral of the expansion from 2.5G to 3G networks; and (b) expansion of a 2.5G network using Wi-Fi as an alternative technology. The cases are examined and analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively, using realistic assumptions and parameters. Investment cost, number of subscribers, pricing of services, and risk are at the core of investment decision processing. In both cases, sensitivity analysis of the value of the (real) option considering the above key parameters was conducted, to extrapolate useful findings that should be taken into consideration by the decision makers in wireless companies.     

浅谈职业学校新校区校园网安全分析和对策

随着越来越多的职业学校规模的扩大以及现有教学条件不能满足正常的教学需求,很多学校都选择新建校区,而在新校区的建设当中,校区的各个角落都有网络,随之而来的网络安全问题也显得尤为突出,校园内局域网的安全问题需要引起足够的重视,来自网络内部的计算机客户端的安全威胁缺少必要的管理措施,威胁很大。本文重点介绍了局域网内网安全控制与病毒防治的策略。     

无线局域网的现状及前景展望

无线局域网技术(包括IEEE802.11、蓝牙技术、HomeRF等)将是新世纪无线通信领域最有良好发展前景的重大技术之一。文中着重介绍了无线局域网标准的进展,IEEE802.11、蓝牙技术、HomeRF等几种主流标准的比较,分析了无线局域网技术、现状、局限与应用前景。     

一种无人值守接力的靶场安控系统

本文论述了中国实行对外开放是邓小平和中国人民把握历史和时代发展规律作出的战略抉择并取得了巨大成就;分析总结了中国入世前对外开放的基本特征及其原因;重点探讨了中国入世后对外开放的新阶段、新特点及其应对措施,推动对外开放新阶段和开放型经济新发展。     

POCSAG码的接收与软件译码方法

本文及时追踪世界物流产业发展中出现的第四方物流现象,论述了加入WTO后中国物流产业所面临的严峻形势——跨国公司意图垄断中国的第四方物流市场,而后提出了应对策略。     

Expectations,network effects and timing of technology adoption: some empirical evidence from a sample of SMEs in Italy

We provide evidence on the influence of expectations and network effects on the timing of technological adoption. By considering a sample of SMEs operating in Italy, we focus on the determinants of their decision to adopt Fast Ethernet, a communication standard for Local Area Networks (LANs). We find that both expectations and network effects significantly affect the timing of adoption. In particular, price expectations generally tend to delay adoption and (indirect) network effects in the form of backward compatibility as well as informational spillovers tend to foster adoption. Firm size also matters.