Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modeling

Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelationand cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessaryfor joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariateparametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice.We propose an adaptive procedure that identifies periods ofsecond-order homogeneity for each moment in time. To overcomethe high dimensionality of the problem we transform the multivariateseries into a set of univariate processes. We discuss thoroughlythe implementation of the adaptive technique. Theoretical andMonte Carlo results are given. We provide two applications ofthe new method. For a bivariate exchange rate series we comparethe multivariate GARCH approach with our method and find thelatter to be more in line with the underlying assumption ofindependently distributed innovations. Analyzing a 23-dimensionalvector of asset returns we underscore the case for adaptivemodeling in high-dimensional systems.     

Short sales, price pressure, and the stock price response to convertible bond calls

The announcement of a convertible bond call is associated with an average contemporaneous abnormal stock price decline of 1.75% and an ensuing price recovery in the conversion period. A price fall and the subsequent recovery suggest price pressure as the explanation for the announcement effect. However, in general the option to convert is not exercised early and hence, the increase in the number of shares outstanding does not occur at the announcement date. Instead, this paper argues and provides evidence that hedging-induced short selling causes at least part of the short-run price pressure.     

试论企业的终端营销攻略

本文分析了销售终端在企业经营战略中的重大意义，并主要以海尔为例对当今市场经济条件下企业销售终端的建立，提出了若干思路和建议。     

The adaptive consequences of pride in personal selling

This study examines the adaptive consequences of pride in personal selling and its self-regulation with colleagues and customers. Study 1 investigates the effects of experiencing pride, where two benefits were found. First, pride increases salespersons’ performance-related motivations. Specifically, it promotes the use of adaptive selling strategies, greater effort, and self-efficacy. Second, pride positively affects organizational citizenship behaviors. Study 2 takes an emotion-process point of view and compares excessive pride (hubris) with positive pride. The results show that salespeople are capable of self-regulating the expression of these emotions differently toward colleagues and customers via anticipated feelings of fear, shame, and regret. Salespeople, in other words, are affected by their emotions, but they also are capable of controlling them to their advantage. Willem Verbeke (verbeke@few.eur.nl) is a chaired professor of sales and account management at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania. His research has appeared in a number of academic journals, including theJournal of Marketing, theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, theJournal of Management, theJournal of Organizational Behavior, and theJournal of Applied Psychology. His area of research interests includes personal selling, sales management, emotions and emotion regulation, social capital, and knowledge management. Frank Belschak (belschak@few.eur.nl) is an assistant professor of marketing and organizational behavior at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. He received his Ph.D. in organizational behavior from the University of Cologne in Germany. His current research interests include emotions and emotion regulation in organizations and across cultures, as well as social capital and networks. Richard P. Bagozzi (bagozzi@rice.edu) is the J. Hugh Liedtke Professor of Management in the Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Management and a professor of psychology at Rice University in Houston, Texas. He conducts research on human emotions, the theory of action, goal setting and goal striving, and structural equation methods.     

基于递归对角神经网络自适应均衡算法的研究

阐述了神经网络自适应均衡算法的基本原理,提出了一种基于递归对角神经网络的自适应均衡算法,推导了算法的迭代公式,进行了计算机仿真。结果表明,随着传输信号信噪比的增加,稳态剩余误差减小,误码率降低。     

中国通货膨胀成因的实证分析

通过对可能影响我国通货膨胀的因素,包括经济增长、货币供应量、居民消费水平和工资的格兰杰因果分析和自回归分布滞后模型的拟合,可知我国通货膨胀和货币供应量、居民预期有密切关系,而和其他因素没有显著关系.     

A resilience-based framework for evaluating adaptive co-management: Linking ecology, economics and society in a complex world

Adaptive co-management brings together collaborative and adaptive approaches in pursuit of sustainable resource use and social-ecological resilience. Enthusiasm for this management approach, however, is countered by recent critiques regarding outcomes. A lack of evidence from consistent evaluation of adaptive co-management further exacerbates this situation. This paper revisits the issue of evaluation in natural resource management and recasts it in light of complex adaptive systems thinking. An evaluative framework for adaptive co-management is developed which directs attention toward three broad components: ecosystem conditions, livelihood outcomes and process and institutional conditions. Scale-specific parameters are offered for each component to facilitate systematic learning from experience and encourage cross-site comparisons. Conclusions highlight the importance of systematically incorporating evaluation into the adaptive co-management process and recognize the challenge for resource agencies and researchers to shift from a conventional to a complex adaptive system perspective.     

基于复杂性科学观的区域创新网络研究

复杂性科学打破了新古典经济学的简单性、稳定性和线性的均衡范式,开创了一种建立在复杂性、动态性和非线性基础上的演化范式。区域创新网络由于具有非线性、动态性和不可逆性等特征,更适合纳入到复杂性科学的范式中来研究。根据区域创新网络的复杂性特征,归纳出其实质上是一种复杂性适应系统,进而运用复杂性科学对其进行了阐释,最后得出了基于高新区培育和发展区域创新网络的几点启示。