“限广令”后的中国广告业猜想

2011年11月28日,广电总局下发《〈广播电视广告播出管理办法〉的补充规定》,决定自2012年1月1日起,全国各电视台播出电视剧时,每集电视剧中间不得再以任何形式插播广告。本文基于这项规定,探讨今后中国广告的发展趋势,提出了六大变化猜想,并阐述这些变化对不同主体带来的多赢可能性的假设。     

ON BRÓDY'S CONJECTURE: THEORY,FACTS AND FIGURES ABOUT INSTABILITY OF THE US ECONOMY

Bródy's conjecture regarding the instability of economies is submitted to an empirical test using input–output flow tables of varying size for the US economy, for the benchmark years 1997 and 2002, as well as for the period 1998–2011. The results obtained using input–output tables of various dimensions lend support to the view of increasing instability (in the sense of Bródy) of the US economy over the period considered. Furthermore, our analysis shows that only a few vertically integrated industries are enough to shape the behaviour of the entire economy in the case of a disturbance. These results may usefully be contrasted with those derived in a parallel literature on aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic ‘idiosyncratic’ shocks.     

享年次高的诺贝尔奖得主——新制度经济学大师罗纳德·科斯

1991年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、英国和美国(双重国籍)经济学家和法学家罗纳德·科斯是交易成本理论、科斯定理和科斯猜想的首创者,法律经济学和新制度经济学的开山鼻祖,产权理论和产权经济学的奠基人,他开启了产权理论、法律经济学和新制度经济学三个领域的研究方向。科斯是国际经济学界的泰斗级大师和巨匠,他在阐述经济组织产生的原理、交易成本分析以及推动法学、经济史和组织理论的发展方面作出重要贡献,发展了新古典经济学,开创了现代企业理论。科斯一生都关切和热爱中国,一直密切关注着中国的经济改革,其经济理论和深邃思想对中国的经济改革影响巨大而深远。     

Rational Strategic Reasoning: An Unnatural Act?

We review recent literature on competitive reactions and strategic thinking and offer several observations. Evidence is mounting that strategic thinking is an unnatural act, made difficult by natural individual biases and organizational roadblocks. In addition, it is possible that uncertainty about competitive behavior is caused by and contributes to informal and incomplete competitive intelligence. We propose a simple model which suggests a potential path dependency in a firm's intelligence gathering, driven by the inertia of its past decision-making. Such a path dependency can be broken, however, as evidenced by several examples of firms who have overcome barriers to strategic thinking in creative ways. Paradoxically, though, there are circumstances in which competition is overemphasized in decision-making. Research priorities are discussed.     

Revision of conjectures about the opponent’s utilities in signaling games

In this paper we apply the concept of preference conjecture equilibrium introduced in Perea (2005) to signaling games and show its relation to sequential equilibrium. We introduce the concept of minimum revision equilibrium and show how this can be interpreted as a refinement of sequential equilibrium     

Intertemporal price–quality discrimination and the Coase conjecture

We examine time-consistent intertemporal price–quality discrimination by a durable goods monopolist, when there are a continuum of buyer demand-intensities with respect to product quality, and it is profitable for the monopolist to trade with the marginal buyer-type (i.e., the “gap” case). We show that along every subgame perfect equilibrium path, with probability 1, prices and qualities decline over time, and the market is completely and monotonically depleted according to buyer-type in a finite number of offers. But, unlike the fixed quality literature, the monopolist may randomize over price–quality offers along the equilibrium path. We also show that the Coase conjecture continues to be valid here, but in a form that is significantly different from the usual formulation. In the limit, as the time between offers evaporates, the monopolist makes a continuum of offers and perfectly screens the market. However, he effectively cannot price-discriminate, because the equilibrium profits converge to the complete “pooling” profits that would be made if the entire market had the marginal buyer-type’s valuation.     

从薛定谔猜想试论邓小平理论内核的科学性本质

建立在牛顿决定论基础上的均衡经济理论明显存在一些缺陷，量子力学的鼻祖薛定谔的三大猜想或许能给我们全新的启示，令人惊异的是邓小平理论的内核也与此暗合且都具有相当的科学性。今天，在我国政治经济社会领域面对复杂新形势的时候，我们经济类的学者肩负历史重任，更应该深度认识到研究中国经济理论应该具备怎样的科学方法论。     

三维数字化技术在服装中的应用

本文以三维数字化技术为出发点,论述三维技术在服装生产中的应用现状以及发展趋势。在服装工业中,它加快了企业对市场反应速度;同时是开展服装电子商务的必要条件和重要依据,它将服装生产与高科技紧密结合起来,使服装生产和设计更具个性化和人性化,提高了服装的适体性,对服装工业的快速发展有极大的推动作用。     

证伪主义-反思经济学的方法论

近代西方经济学派别林立,各种理论、学说、派别层出不穷,如何理解这些理论,建立对于经济金融现象的全面理性理解,变得越来越困难。之所以会这样,完全是由于人们对于经济学的哲学基础关注甚少。从现代经济学研究史看,哲学思维其实扮演着极为重要的作用,正确的方法论是经济学理论发展的重要标志。本文反思了以往传统经济学证实分析思考模式的局限性,分析探讨了证伪科学哲学对于经济学研究的意义和价值,重新审视了错误在确立理论科学地位属性中的独特价值和决定性作用,赋予人们一种与以往证实分析研究模式完全截然不同全新的视角,对于分析和理解金融现象颇具启发性。