The distributional impact of unification and the 1992–93 recession on West German households

The 1992–93 recession in the western states of Germany has been attributed, in substantial measure, to the macroeconomic consequences of policies to finance unification. Studies of the costs of unification have not attempted to measure the burden of the recession. We estimate a dynamic, panel model of household incomes using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and use it to forecast what these incomes would have been in 1992–94 without a recession. Using a ratio of actual to forecast incomes, we compare the relative burden of the recession across households. Our findings suggest that western households below the median income bore the brunt of the combined impact of unification and the recession of 1992–93.
JEL classification: P3, D3, E3.     

Working-time reduction and employment: experiences in Europe and economic policy recommendations

The paper seeks to evaluate the evidence on the employment effectsof the collective working-time reductions in Europe over thepast 20 years. While theoretical analyses produce contradictoryassessments, most empirical studies show positive employmenteffects but take insufficient account of these conditions underwhich the reductions in working time were implemented. Theseconditions for the success of collective working-time reductionsinclude an active training policy designed to minimise skillshortages in the labour market, the modernisation of work organisation,wage increases in conjunction with productivity gains and amore equal income distribution.     

Regional job-turnover and industrial policy. a note on a potential time pattern of regional industrial policies and their job effects - the case of the german city-state of bremen

Many regions have experienced long-run economic fluctuations generated by the life cycles of their dominant industrial clusters. During the downswings in the 1970s and 1980s, proactive structural policies were typically launched in German regions to combat job losses in their core clusters and to create new jobs in new industries. With respect to the German State of Bremen, this paper provides empirical evidence of: (1) a long-run regional downswing; (2) the potential job effects of proactive regional industrial policy programmes in terms of increasing regional employment, by safeguarding jobs in the regional core industries and creating new jobs in new growth industries; and (3) a time pattern in the job effects, which are related to the different generations of programmes.     

Blocked-Error-R 2: A Conceptually Improved Definition of the Proportion of Explained Variance in Models Containing Loops or Correlated Residuals

Bentler and Raykov (2000, Journal of Applied Psychology 85: 125–131), and Jöreskog (1999a, http://www.ssicentral.com/lisrel/column3.htm, 1999b http://www.ssicentral. com/lisrel/column5.htm) proposed procedures for calculating R ² for dependent variables involved in loops or possessing correlated errors. This article demonstrates that Bentler and Raykov’s procedure can not be routinely interpreted as a “proportion” of explained variance, while Jöreskog’s reduced-form calculation is unnecessarily restrictive. The new blocked-error-R ² (beR ²) uses a minimal hypothetical causal intervention to resolve the variance-partitioning ambiguities created by loops and correlated errors. Hayduk (1996) discussed how stabilising feedback models – models capable of counteracting external perturbations – can result in an acceptable error variance which exceeds the variance of the dependent variable to which that error is attached. For variables included within loops, whether stabilising or not, beR ² provides the same value as Hayduk’s (1996) loop-adjusted-R ². For variables not involved in loops and not displaying correlated residuals, beR ² reports the same value as the traditional regression R ². Thus, beR ² provides a conceptualisation of the proportion of explained variance that spans both recursive and nonrecursive structural equation models. A procedure for calculating beR ² in any SEM program is provided.     

Home country effects of foreign direct investment: From a small economy to a large economy

Previous studies on home country effects mainly focused on FDI from large developed economies to other countries. But today's super recipient is a relatively larger economy than its investors and many of these investors are not classified as “developed economies.” A simple Ak type model implies that a small and more developed country investing in a large and less developed country will experience decreases in both employment and income disparity (compared to the recipient country) as the less-developed recipient country gains the higher technology of production through FDI inflows. The empirical results for the Four Tigers (source countries) and China (recipient country) are consistent with our theoretical model of FDI outflows. We also find that FDI outflows to China decrease the ratio of exports to GDP only for small source countries, even though a higher investment in China raises the share of these countries' exports-to-China to China's total imports.     

大学生综合素质测评体系理论及应用研究

当前高校都树立了教学、服务和管理三位一体的素质教育目标,因此建立一个符合时代要求的大学生素质测评体系尤为关键。要想对大学生素质有客观准确的测评,就需要科学的测评指标选择,并且赋予各指标适当的权重。为了满足21世纪社会对人才新要求,高校应该从过去的素质测评体系中汲取经验,充分适应时代的新要求,构建适合素质教育的新的大学生素质测评体系。     

宽松的环境政策能吸引更多的外商直接投资吗——基于中国工业省级面板数据的分析

利用我国1997~2009年的工业省级面板数据和动态面板GMM估计方法,考察了相对宽松的环境政策是否是吸引FDI的主要原因。研究发现,环境政策较宽松的地区能够吸引更多的外资流入,但这种影响并不大,所以,以降低环境标准、牺牲环境为代价来吸引FDI不是明智之举;与东、中部地区相比,西部在吸引FDI上处于明显劣势,这在一定程度上加剧了我国经济结构的失衡。     

“动态能力集”人才培养模式的研究与实践——电子商务特色专业人才培养方案创新

根据高职教育构建“工学结合”人才培养模式,增强创新、创业素质教育的指导思想,结合江苏省级示范院校重点特色专业建设标准和江苏经贸职业技术学院电子商务专业的实际,阐述了“动态能力集”人才培养模式的构建理念和思路,并分析和总结了该模式在电子商务专业人才培养方案制订和专业建设实施过程中的具体应用和效果。该模式的实施可动态跟踪行业企业的发展,并显示出预见的主动性,体现了创业和就业的深度融合,对我国高职院校各专业特别是电子商务专业的建设和教学改革有借鉴意义。     

人类能最终战胜“人口魔鬼”吗？

界定了两种"人口魔鬼"的概念,并简单回顾了人类与"人口魔鬼"斗争的历程.在今后几十年或者稍长的时间里,世界人口总数不会无限增殖下去,人类有望战胜"过剩人口魔鬼".但在达到人口顶峰后,由于人口持续缩减,人类的未来不太乐观.