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OLESYA GRISHCHENKO SARAH MOUABBI JEAN‐PAUL RENNE 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2019,51(5):1053-1096
We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored. 相似文献
3.
国产某型民用通勤类飞机为了取得欧洲航空安全局(EASA)型号合格证,机上座椅需进行设计更改并补充进行应急着陆情况下的动态要求符合性验证.通过对适航条款及相应标准的解读,研究了基于动态试验的航空座椅动态要求适航验证技术,其主要包括座椅动态性能基本要求、试验构型及工况筛选、试验规划、合格判据和试验结果分析等内容.结果表明,该型机旅客座椅满足适航规章对座椅的动态性能要求.该项旅客座椅动态性能试验的成功为型号取得EASA型号合格证奠定了良好的基础,该型飞机也即将成为第一个取得欧洲型号合格证的国产飞机. 相似文献
4.
Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa. 相似文献
5.
We price an American floating strike lookback option under the Black–Scholes model with a hypothetic static hedging portfolio (HSHP) composed of nontradable European options. Our approach is more efficient than the tree methods because recalculating the option prices is much quicker. Applying put–call duality to an HSHP yields a tradable semistatic hedging portfolio (SSHP). Numerical results indicate that an SSHP has better hedging performance than a delta-hedged portfolio. Finally, we investigate the model risk for SSHP under a stochastic volatility assumption and find that the model risk is related to the correlation between asset price and volatility. 相似文献
6.
Wenfiang Ran Junwen Feng 《美中经济评论(英文版)》2004,3(5):25-28,42
According to everyone average welfare value of land resources; this paper constitutes the base line of glebe usufruct deal value by analyzing the factors, which are affecting glebe usufruct deal value. Having adopted share's quotient of ownership and contracting power, the paper erects assigning mechanism to the income of glebe deal. Because of the share dynarnicity being adopted which shows the flexible strong points, the shares of ownership and contracting power avoid many unnecessary otiose disputes on income of glebe deal, adding the stability to the glebe usufruct deal. It is beneficial to the freedom flow and validity manufacture factor installment and also to the nonagricultural changing course. 相似文献
7.
While the dynamic theory of production provides little insight towards identifying a specific functional form for the firm's technology, dynamic production analysis has been explored traditionally in a parametric framework. A nonparametric dynamic dual cost approach to production analysis is developed in this article. Recovering technological information from intertemporal cost minimizing behavior is possible without imposing a parametric functional form on the firm's technology. Nonparametric tests to analyze the structure of a dynamic technology are presented from a dynamic cost minimizing perspective. The empirical implementation of these tests is illustrated for a balanced panel data set of Pennsylvania dairy operators during the time period 1986–1992. 相似文献
8.
The 1992–93 recession in the western states of Germany has been attributed, in substantial measure, to the macroeconomic consequences of policies to finance unification. Studies of the costs of unification have not attempted to measure the burden of the recession. We estimate a dynamic, panel model of household incomes using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and use it to forecast what these incomes would have been in 1992–94 without a recession. Using a ratio of actual to forecast incomes, we compare the relative burden of the recession across households. Our findings suggest that western households below the median income bore the brunt of the combined impact of unification and the recession of 1992–93.
JEL classification: P3, D3, E3. 相似文献
JEL classification: P3, D3, E3. 相似文献
9.
社会资本与农村剩余劳动力转移问题分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
社会资本是一种与物质资本、人力资本相区别的存在于社会结构中的个人资源,它对个人的发展与进步具有重要的作用。随着农村整体社会资本的下降,我国的农村剩余劳动力转移难度加大。如何提升农村劳动力的社会资本,进而推进农村剩余劳动力转移,是关系我国农村经济发展一个重要问题。 相似文献
10.
我国经济发展水平与劳动力就业数量关系研究——兼论我国劳动力资源是否过剩 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
我国劳动力对经济发展而言,其生产率高于资本,因而经济发展对劳动力就业的促进作用逐渐减弱(经济增长的就业弹性逐渐变小)。据测算,我国2013年以前劳动力就业压力很大,2015年以后劳动力又会供不应求。所以,我国未来经济发展中,2014年前后应采用不同的产业结构调整策略来充分满足劳动力就业的要求。 相似文献