Risk spillover between Bitcoin and conventional financial markets: An expectile-based approach

In order to challenge the existing literature that points to the detachment of Bitcoin from the global financial system, we use daily data from August 17, 2011–February 14, 2020 and apply a risk spillover approach based on expectiles. Results show reasonable evidence to imply the existence of downside risk spillover between Bitcoin and four assets (equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities), which seems to be time dependent. Our main findings have implications for participants in both the Bitcoin and traditional financial markets for the sake of asset allocation, and risk management. For policy makers, the findings suggest that Bitcoin should be monitored carefully for the sake of financial stability.     

人民币兑美元汇率的风险测量

风险价值 (VaR)是一种计算金融市场风险的综合方法。基于ARCH模型的方差—协方差法计算VaR的基本原则 ,选取人民币 /美元的每日汇率为研究对象 ,测度了人民币兑美元汇率的风险轨迹。     

包含制度因素的我国城市化动力机制的实证分析

从宏观方面讲,我国城市化的动力机制主要包括产业结构转换力与制度和政策调控力。按照三次产业推动城市化的逻辑顺序,可以将产业结构转换力分为第一产业发展形成的推动城市化的初始动力,工业化推进形成的二级动力,以及第三产业发展形成的后续动力。它们与制度和政策调控力一起,成为推动我国城市化的主要动力因素。通过对各动力因素进行指标体系的构建,从定量研究的角度,分析了各动力因素对我国城市人口增长的影响。     

金融风险度量方法的新进展

本文对风险度量的新进展进行了讨论,介绍了一些当前流行的风险度量工具,并从失真函数的角度考察风险度量,指出它们和传统方法的区别,同时对动态风险度量方法也进行了总结。     

Endogenous structural change and crisis in a multiple time-scales growth model

The slow and endogenous twist of economic macro-structure makes up an important evolutionary feature of capitalist economies, and may be at the root of structural crisis. In this line, a Goodwinian growth model with increasing returns and profit-sharing that tries to picture a simple scenario of the seventies crisis is considered. It is shown that the exhaustion of the Kaldor-Verdoorn “productivity law” can entail, in a nonlinear framework, a “catastrophic” bifurcation from a “high” to a “low” growth path. Slow/fast dynamical systems then allow one to formalize a multiple time-scales dynamics where the growth path is shaped by the structural framework in which it takes place, but has also a long -un feedback. Structural change and crisis appear as long term and endogenous outcomes.     

Value at risk forecasting for volatility index

Forecasts of values at risk (VaRs) are made for volatility indices such as the VIX for the US S&P 500 index, the VKOSPI for the KOSPI (Korea Stock Price Index) and the OVX (oil volatility index) for crude oil funds, which is the first in the literature. In the forecasts, dominant features of the volatility indices are addressed: long memory, conditional heteroscedasticity, asymmetry and fat-tails. An out-of-sample comparison of the VaR forecasts is made in terms of violation probabilities, showing better performance of the proposed method than several competing methods which consider the features differently from ours. The proposed method is composed of heterogeneous autoregressive model for the mean, GARCH model for the volatility and skew-t distribution for the error.     

VaR模型在人民币汇率风险度量中的应用

本文首先从VaR模型的假设前提入手,通过对人民币汇率收益率序列的随机性、正态性和异方差性的综合检验,验证了VaR模型在人民币汇率风险度量中的适用性.随后,分别采用非参数法和参数法两大类共九种VaR方法对人民币汇率风险进行实证度量.最后,通过准确性检验发现,GARCH-t模型是度量当前人民币汇率风险的最优方法.     

基于GARCH模型的VaR方法在商业银行汇率风险管理中的应用

本文将GARCH模型应用于我国汇率风险的计量,通过人民币兑美元汇率日收益率VaR值的实证分析,证明基于GAKCH(1,1)模型得到的VaR值能很好的拟合人民币兑美元汇率的日收益率,在商业银行汇率风险管理中具有应用价值.同时,本研究也可为金融机构、监管部门以及外汇投资者规避汇率风险提供决策依据和理论参考.     

基于风险调整收益方法的企业信用风险管理研究

文章根据风险调整收益（RAROC）的原理,借鉴J.P.摩根的信用计量CreditMetrics模型中信用等级转移的思想,构建了应收账款回收期内受信企业信用状况转移矩阵,并据此计算出企业信用VaR值和经济资本CaR值,进而计算RAROC比值,可为企业信用销售决策提供依据。通过将RAROC方法引入企业信用风险管理体系,可以对企业经营活动进行基于风险的绩效考核和业绩评价,以期提高企业信用风险管理水平。     

组合投资决策的收益—风险分析框架

运用均值-方差、均值-VaR与均值-CVaR模型对上证综指、香港恒生指数、台湾加权指数、标准普尔指数和日经指数的收益-风险进行了实证分析。结果表明,在收益服从正态分布下,均值-方差、均值-VaR以及均值-CVaR模型能用一个模型统一表示,三个模型的边界方程也能用一个方程统一表示,三个模型的有效前沿存在子集关系。在收益服从正态分布下三个模型的最优组合投资权重是等价的;在任意分布下三个模型的最优组合投资权重不是等价的。