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Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.  相似文献   
2.
This paper studies the emergence of the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC) and its attempts to institutionalize integrated reporting as a practice that is critical to the relevance and value of corporate reporting. Informed by Suddaby and Viale’s [(2011). Professionals and field-level change: institutional work and the professional project. Current Sociology, 59, 423–442] theorization of how professionals reconfigure organizational fields, the paper delineates the strategies and mechanisms through which the IIRC has sought to enroll the support of a wide range of stakeholder groups for the idea of integrated reporting in order to deliver a fundamental reconfiguration of the corporate reporting field. The paper’s analysis reinforces the significance to any such field reconfiguration of the reciprocal and mutual arrangements between influential professionals and other powerful actors but does so in a way that (a) refines Suddaby and Viale’s theorization of processes of field-level change and (b) pinpoints the fundamental policy challenges facing the IIRC. Gieryn’s [(1983). Boundary work and the demarcation of science from non-science: strains and interests in professional ideologies of scientists. American Sociological Review, 48 (6), 781–795] notion of boundary work is operationalized to capture some of the complexity and dynamism of the change process that is not sufficiently represented by Suddaby and Viale’s more sequentialist theorization. From a policy perspective, the paper demonstrates just how much the IIRC’s prospects for success in reconfiguring the corporate reporting field depend on its ability to reconfigure the mainstream investment field. Ultimately, this serves to question whether the IIRC’s conceptualization of ‘enlightened’ corporate reporting is sufficiently powerful and persuasive to stimulate ‘enlightened’ investment behavior focused on the medium and long term – and, more generally stresses the theoretical significance of considering connections across related organizational fields in institutional analyses of field reconfiguration efforts.  相似文献   
3.
Young children under 8 years old are viewed as especially vulnerable to marketing communications because they do not have sufficient knowledge about the purpose of persuasive advertising messages, also known as children's persuasion knowledge (CPK). However, a review of 25 studies that have tested CPK effects, on primarily older children, finds inconsistent or no support for CPK. The lack of support depends on the effect studied, and a measurement challenge because of young children's limited capabilities in reading and responding to questions from interviewers. Thirteen measures of CPK have been tested but not compared for CPK effects. These measures were simplified to nonverbal options for young children and tested on a sample of 4‐ to 7‐year‐old North East Chinese children (n = 233). These measures were each tested in relation to the children's age (positive), their skepticism toward advertising (positive), their disbelief of false claims in a TV commercial (TVC) (positive) and their affect toward the TVC (negative). Only two measures of CPK show any expected associated responses with “knowing the source” of advertisements the best measure. Perceived marketer intentions had no expected associations, nor did the age of the child. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of theory, measurement, and applications for marketers and public policy.  相似文献   
4.
The littoral pleasure periphery (LPP) is a major and expanding spatial feature of Brazil that is dominated by almost 200 specialised coastal resorts, beachfront metropolises and beachfront cities. It is notable in an emerging economy context for the extent to which domestic forces have influenced its development, including not just favourable geographic features but patterns of historical settlement, modernisation processes, national culture, and geopolitical motivations. Reflecting Brazil's economic and social dualities, the LPP exhibits two distinct models. The southern LPP, like counterparts in the more developed world, is long-established and displays an “organic” growth trajectory. The northern LPP is a hybrid of “organic” and “induced” impulses exhibiting more rapid and largely planned growth manifested in low density development. Despite efforts of a multi-partner regional tourism initiative – the Programa de Desenvolvimento do Turismo (PRODETUR) – to facilitate economic and social equity through targeted tourism investment, the northern LPP resembles classic Third World LPPs where mainly “non-white” local residents are often displaced by coastal development involving “white” investors and tourists. Unsustainable tourism outcomes are therefore indicated in both components of the Brazilian LPP and minimal progression toward an enlightened mass tourism ideal.  相似文献   
5.
Based on an empirical analysis of a yearlong netnography of a Swedish online fashion community, and the explication of the concept of modern cynicism, this paper develops a novel perspective on consumer morality. The analysis suggests that modern cynicism informs consumers of the reasonableness in consciously stating one type of morality while acting out another, in order to handle the morally conflicting demands put on them by contemporary consumer culture. The contribution of the paper is mainly threefold: (i) it conceptualizes instances of consumer morality as a form of consumer cynicism; (ii) it advances our understanding of consumer morality by showing how instances of consumer morality are articulated through cynical discursive practices, steeped in an enlightened disbelief in: the market, the other consumer and the self; and (iii) it shows that consumer cynicism, as enlightened critique, does not necessarily constitute an effective form of resistance. It is concluded that we may observe yet another type of morality developing within contemporary consumption, markets and culture: a morality of cynicism where consumers, actors and organizations not only find something healthy, but also something right or good in a cynical reason.  相似文献   
6.
Volunteer tourism as a phenomenon and as a market has come a long way since its ideologically driven early days. It is now an established and ever commercialised market that meets the demand for a different travel experience for the more morally conscious traveller, while at the same time it provides opportunities for economic gain for the organisations that act as brokers of such experiences. This interaction raises several ethical issues in terms of serving a mission while making economic gains. In general, there is an acceptable relationship between monetary gain and altruistic service, within the context of enlightened self-interest provided that the beneficiary of economic gains diverts profits into serving their mission. This paper examines the supply for volunteer tourism for evidence of commercialisation and profit-driven behaviour and investigates a relationship between monetary gain and serving a mission by creating public goods.  相似文献   
7.
This research examines how support for the local community by small tourism businesses influences their enterprise performance, and the extent to which the owners’ place attachment influences the level of support that they provide to the community. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling were used to analyse the responses from the owners of 298 small and medium tourism enterprises (SMTEs) operating in regional South Australia. Results of the analysis provide support for the validity of a structural model. The place attachment of tourism business owners has a significant positive effect on their support for the community which in turn has a significant positive effect on enterprise performance. The robustness of the structural model was tested through a series of invariance (equality) tests. Results demonstrate that the causal relationships among place attachment, support for community and enterprise performance hold true (are invariant) irrespective of the gender of the business owner, the size of the business, and/or the length of time the business has been operating. These findings have implications for research scholars in developing more robust tests of model relationships between and across groups, and for tourism policymakers aiming to support the sustainable development of regional tourism destinations.  相似文献   
8.
ABSTRACT

What do consumers need from a narrative? How can videographers satisfy those needs? Through semi-structured interviews with 55 Eurostar passengers from 14 countries, this film documents how people define narratives, why they need them, and how they experience the effects of need for narrative. The adjoining commentary contributes to the development of videography as an attractive method by introducing the videographer’s perspective and elucidating key story elements that can help satisfy viewers’ needs for narrative. The suggested approach maintains the vivid quality of videography and respects its methodological rigour, while increasing its effectiveness in close alignment with a consumer society that visual communication increasingly permeates. As such, the commentary and the film jointly unveil videographers’ etic and viewers’ emic use and evaluation of the videographic method.  相似文献   
9.
Scenario analysis considers highly uncertain future conditions. The method involves developing and analyzing plausible narratives of the future and evaluating them for a range of implications. The power of scenarios lies in creating and considering compelling stories about the future. Thus, narrative, defined as an account of a series of events, is central to the process and plays a pivotal role in engaging participants in a scenario analysis exercise. While a good scenario story can engage individuals and influence their suspension of disbelief, we know little about how participants actually respond to the scenarios so they can, and will, suspend disbelief in scenario outcomes.We explored the role of narrative in suspension of disbelief in a scenario-based study of the long-term future of Canada's forests and forest sector. We discovered that specific aspects of the scenario narratives themselves influenced participants’ suspension of disbelief. While interacting with the scenario narratives, participants actively worked to suspend disbelief by creating new narratives or accessing other existing ones, and by projecting themselves into the scenarios as characters in the stories. Our results may help scenario writers, practitioners, and researchers understand what, in one project, cued people's abilities to suspend disbelief and engage productively in discussions about possible futures.  相似文献   
10.
For several decades, business has operated according to the tenets of neoclassical economic theory, where the primary obligation of corporations is to maximize profit for shareholders. However, the larger social mandate for business has changed, represented by the rise of language such as "sustainable development", "corporate social responsibility" (CSR) and "stakeholder groups." Nevertheless, the theoretical shift implied by the use of such language has not occurred. Issues of sustainable development and CSR continue to be justified in the terms of neoclassical economic theory through the rationalization of "doing well by doing good".Within this economic paradigm, CSR cannot move beyond enlightened self-interest (acting in socially responsible ways in order to further one's own ends) because all behavior must be justified economically. This implies that corporate socially responsible behavior will simply cease when it becomes uneconomic, regardless of the impact on interrelated systems which in turn will re-impact the business realm.Faced with bitter realities arising from complex interactions among social, political, cultural, eco-nomic and natural environments, we may better comprehend and negotiate these problems by moving out of a neoclassical economic justification of the stakeholder model of the corporation to an inter-systems model, shifting from a narrow comprehension of a single economic independent system analyzed apart from its larger context to a fuller understanding of business as one of a number of interrelated systems.Operational differences between the old and new mandates are described, and two ways to practically shift towards the new mandate are identified as a modified version of scenario planning and the introduction of the voice of the critic.  相似文献   
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