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1.
A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Anastasia Ivanova 《Metrika》2003,58(1):1-13
We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing
treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion
as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized
play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities
the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns
more subjects to the better treatment.
Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions. 相似文献
2.
This paper develops and estimates models of family and sex-specific emigration, as well as the sex composition of this emigration, from 12 European source countries to the U.S. for the period 1870–1910. The models are based on the distinction between economic migrants (males, single females, and some married females) and tied or trailing migrants (females) and are estimated with panel data, including data that relate to the occupational/industrial structure of male and female economic activity in source countries. Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable estimates suggest that although both males and females responded to labor-market signals, males were more responsive than females to per capita GDP differences. Moreover, compared to the rest of Europe, Ireland, and Scandinavia were the sources of many young, single male, and female migrants, who responded strongly to gaps in economic opportunities. In fact, much of the European response to such gaps appears to be due to migrants from Ireland and Scandinavia. Females tended to originate in English-speaking countries and countries that were agriculturally oriented. Service and manufacturing jobs in source countries discouraged the migration of females relative to males. Males tended to follow recent migrants more than females, but females responded more to long-term influences as measured by stocks of migrants from their source countries who had previously settled in the U.S. Countries with high birth rates had relatively fewer female emigrants, whereas those with high rates of natural increase 20 years earlier experienced relatively more male emigration. Intact families, other family members (including family-strategy male migrants and trailing female migrants), and single males and females responded strongly to economic incentives, but the singles were most responsive followed by family-strategy males. 相似文献
3.
Rich countries often face sizeable illegal migration. This paper suggests that these countries would use the financial aid which they give to the source countries as an instrument to prevent illegal immigration. The core of this policy is to allow the source countries to compete for the pre-determined aid, which would be distributed according to the cross-proportion of the apprehended illegal aliens. Moreover, we show that it may be beneficial for the rich country to split the source countries into competing pairs rather than allowing all of them to compete jointly. The rich country has basically two policy means: funds allocated to strengthening its border control; and the foreign aid given to the source countries. The multi-country general equilibrium model presented shows how the rich country, by choosing an appropriate mix of these two policy means, can minimize the number of illegal immigrants subject to its budget constrain.Received: 15 August 2002, Accepted: 21 January 2004, JEL Classification:
F22Nava Kahana, Tikva Lecker: The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. 相似文献
4.
5.
杜红亮 《全球科技经济瞭望》2014,(10):69-76
移民积分制是一种挑选移民主要是高技能人才的重要政策工具,在一些具有移民传统的发达国家和地区广泛使用,并受到越来越多的国家关注。目前,实施移民积分制的国家,一类为实施积分制,另一类为实施类积分制,这两类的典型国家分别为加拿大和德国。通过概述加拿大积分制和德国类积分制的实践,深入分析了移民积分制的实施前提、主要特征,剖析了实施移民积分制的优点和不足,继而对实施和调整移民积分制的整体框架进行了反思与归纳。我国当前仍处在经济社会快速发展的阶段,迫切需要各类科技人才,必须加快移民积分制的实施,但在实施过程中,应该注意对实施对象的范围做出严格限定,所制定的积分制要有利于满足高层次科技创新创业人才以多种方式来中国发展的需求,并可采取国家、省级两级积分体系。 相似文献
6.
This paper gives a brief overview of China's family planning policy which, although recently relaxed, still controls a large swath of the population. Unofficially known as the ‘one‐child policy’, it resulted from the social strife of the 1970s coupled with a Malthusian pessimism concerning the capability of the still largely closed and isolated Chinese economy to care for itself. We discuss the motivations for the policy, the unfortunate demographic future that it will create, and some policy reforms that can be undertaken today. 相似文献
7.
Piotr Zientara 《Economic Affairs》2011,31(1):66-72
International migration, seen as a powerful force of truly global character that is shaping today's socio‐economic reality, is a highly controversial and politicised issue. This paper explores its ramifications in the context of a growing backlash against immigration across the rich world. Specifically, it argues that the free flow of people – like the free movement of goods and capital – is beneficial to developed and developing economies alike and, in doing so, shows how migration produces win–win outcomes. Thus the study, while admitting that inflows of foreign‐born workers pose challenges and entail trade‐offs, makes a case for the liberalisation of immigration policies. The paper deepens our understanding of the issues at hand and constitutes a voice in favour of liberal‐policy choices. 相似文献
8.
Jonathan Wadsworth 《Fiscal Studies》2013,34(1):55-82
A rise in population caused by increased immigration is sometimes accompanied by concerns that the increase in population puts additional or differential pressure on welfare services, which might affect the net fiscal contribution of immigrants. The UK and Germany have experienced significant increases in immigration in recent years and this study uses longitudinal data from both countries to examine whether immigrants differ in their use of health services from native-born individuals on arrival and over time. While immigrants to Germany, but not the UK, are more likely to self-report poor health than the native-born population, the samples of immigrants use hospital and GP services at broadly the same rate as the native-born populations in both countries. Controls for observed and unobserved differences between immigrants and native-born sample populations make little difference to these broad findings. 相似文献
9.
We construct a disaggregated rural economywide model with a focus on gender and immigration as well as on the allocation of time to wage work, household production activities, and housework (reproduction). We use this model to simulate the impacts of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) on rural incomes and welfare in the Dominican Republic. We find that elimination of agricultural import tariffs hurts both agricultural and non-agricultural households, via adverse factor-market effects, but impacts vary substantially by workers’ gender and country of origin. Females and Haitian immigrants tend to fare better than Dominican males, and there are ramifications for both market and non-market activities. 相似文献
10.
经过多年的建设发展,C区已经成为首都城市发展新区,但在快速发展过程中,出现了外来人口快速增长的现象,加重了社会治理负担,也使C区成为了B市唯一的“人口倒挂区”。因此,外来人口的服务与管理亟须创新思路,重新定位。通过对C区外来人口现状特征进行分析,找出当前外来人口服务与管理中存在问题,并对C区的发展提出对策建议。 相似文献