Optimal Intervention Policies for a Small Monetary Economy

We analyze the gains from trade for a small cash-in-advance economy with endogenous labor supply and learning-by-doing in the accumulation of human capital. Contrary to previous findings, we show that free trade is not optimal independently of the relative amount of cash required for the purchase of each good. Furthermore, a monetary rule à la Friedman can eliminate distortions deriving from the cash-in-advance constraint only under segmented financial markets; in any case, it cannot restore the economic optimum. Finally, we identify government intervention policies, such as wage and export subsidies, that can be welfare improving.     

Learning-by-doing versus Schooling in a Model of Endogenous Growth

A two sector model of learning-by-doing measured by means of production aggregated over time and of human capital accumulation in a schooling sector is presented. Time utilization is rival between schooling and learning-by-doing. Depending on the sum of elasticities of the accumulated factors (i.e., of production experience and educational human capital) in both sectors, a situation with or without endogenous growth results. Dynamic optimization of the choice between leisure and working and of the division of human capital between education and production is executed. Transitional dynamics are analyzed for a Cobb-Douglas example and a numerical simulation is performed.JEL classification: C61, D90, O41.Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Eric C. Meyer and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual caveats apply.revised version received November 23, 2003     

When east meets south: economic gains from India-APEC trade

As India, potentially one of the largest economies in the world, seeks membership to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC), a case for its inclusion in an expanded APEC is examined. The methodology and empirical design as developed in Marwah and Klein (1995) within the framework of a world trade matrix consists of seven regions divided into India, components of APEC, and the rest of the world. The growth of economic cohesiveness within APEC between 1965 and 1995 is quantitatively assessed by patterns of trade linkages through measures of bilateral reciprocity, multilateralism, and market diversification. Entropy indexes of the trade matrix are computed and used in the analysis. Since 1991, when massive economic reforms were implemented, India has experienced strong growth in exports and in imports, a departure from its previous performance. Furthermore, its external orientation has shifted positively and significantly since the reforms. Despite this, during the latest five years, India's integration with APEC hadn't changed to a level of statistical significance. The case for an expanded APEC, including India, is still somewhat prospective but the evidence is growing that it could prove beneficial to all the member countries. For India to benefit in this expanded APEC, it should continue to press its case for inclusion in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC).     

Infant Firm Subsidization in Industries with Dynamic Structure

This paper analyzes time-consistent subsidies in industries with strong learning effects and frequent entry and exit. Structural dynamics create opportunities for strategic behavior: by influencing government policies, infant firms can reduce their tax burden and weaken future competitors. Two balanced-budget subsidy regimes are considered: (1) intra-industry redistribution; and (2) outside funding. We show that the choice of funding method does not affect equilibrium welfare. In both cases, the regulator is able to attain the constrained optimum. This result does not depend on the functional form of payoffs and holds in both price and quantity games. In linear-quadratic examples, we compute the equilibrium strategies. We show that (1) government intervention amplifies transitional price and output fluctuations and (2) the steady-state subsidy rate and infant production are decreasing in the speed of learning.      

Financial markets, specialization, and learning by doing

This paper considers three questions: (1) what is the role of financial markets in development, (2) why do some economies have such poorly developed financial markets, and (3) can government policy be used to promote financial market development? With respect to the first question, we formalize the widely-held notion that financial markets promote entrepreneurship, specialization, and learning-by-doing. However, if economic incentives for specialization are absent, financial markets may fail to form. This occurs when real interest rates are too low. We also discuss policies that can be used to promote financial market development. When these policies are successful, they will be growth promoting. Finally, we examine policies intended to manipulate returns on savings, which are often important components of “financial liberalizations”. We describe conditions under which such policies will be conducive to growth.     

Sales Quota Plans: Mechanisms For Adaptive Learning

A vexing problem in managing sales forces occurs when the sales manager does not know the characteristics of a sales territory. In this paper we show how sales quota-bonus plans can be optimally used to learn about unknown territory characteristics over a multiperiod horizon. We demonstrate this process in two scenarios—one in which the sales manager and the rep are symmetrically informed about the territory characteristics, and the other in which the rep is better informed than the manager. Overall our analysis underscores the importance of Bayesian techniques in sales force management.     

Optimal infant industry protection during transition to World Trade Organization membership – A numerical analysis for the Vietnamese motorcycle industry

This paper proposes a framework to derive the optimal dynamic path of tariffs to protect infant industries when a country initiates a process to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). The framework is based on the model of Melitz (2005) in which externalities associated with dynamic learning-by-doing provide a rationale for infant industry protection. Unlike the original model, this paper assumes that there is a time limit for protection: after a fixed number of years, tariffs are required to be constant over time at a low level. This setup reflects the nature of the actual WTO agreement. This model is solved analytically to derive quantitative implications for the optimal tariff path, unlike in Melitz (2005), where only qualitative analyses are undertaken. An interesting result emerges: conventional wisdom is that a country in this situation should reduce the tariff rate gradually over time so that it converges to its long-run rate at the terminal date of protection. By contrast, this paper finds that, in some plausible scenarios, the optimal time path of the tariff can be upward sloping. A numerical analysis applied to the Vietnamese motorcycle industry, a typical infant industry in a country joining the WTO, confirms such a pattern.     

Business cycles and productivity growth: Are temporary downturns productive or wasteful?

This paper investigates the relationship between the structure of the business cycle and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in U.S. manufacturing. Previous empirical studies on cycle-growth interactions have been conducted at the aggregate level, and have produced mixed results. In contrast, we examine the dynamic linkages between temporary employment shocks and TFP at the industry level, using the NBER Productivity Database. Given the substantial differences in factor intensities, costs and the nature of innovation and productivity-enhancing activities across industries, there are good reasons why cycle-growth interactions may be more readily captured at the sectoral level. We construct an exactly identified Vector Autoregressive model for employment and TFP growth, and find strong support for the “opportunity-cost” view of business cycle-productivity growth interaction. This result suggests that recessions can lead to TFP growth through reorganization and restructuring effects. On the other hand, we find little support for the notion that temporary booms increase TFP through “learning-by-doing” effects. The responsiveness of TFP to employment shocks also seems to be related to the degree of job reallocation within individual industries and the capital intensity of the industry in question. This is further evidence in favour of the view that employment shocks can trigger reorganization effects. Finally, we suggest possible future avenues for this research, including the adjustment of TFP measures to allow for variable factor utilization over the cycle.     

中国转轨时期的货币非超中性和通货膨胀——兼论中国货币政策双重目标的体制根源

本文通过引入一个含有资本品生产不对称信息和消费品生产流动性约束的干中学世代交叠模型,证实了在干中学发展阶段和金融欠发达共同作用下,中国需要实行国家隐性担保和利率管制相配合的金融体制,并实行适应性货币政策,激励银行信用扩张,加速企业投资和经济增长。运用该模型能够较好地解释中国转轨时期正的货币非超中性和通货膨胀并存格局,并在此基础上剖析相应的兼顾经济增长和通货膨胀控制的货币政策双重目标体制根源。     

动态干中学、产业升级与产业结构演进——韩国经验及对中国的启示

在韩国发展过程中,工资上涨迫使产业升级,淘汰了落后企业和技术,工人的人力资本积累也在动态干中学中得到提高。由此导致产业从劳动密集型向资本和技术密集型过渡,促进产业结构高级变化,与此同时,R＆D的作用逐渐突出,技术获取从依赖引进转变为自主研发。韩国经验可供的借鉴是：（1）通过提高生产率来消化成本上涨;（2）加强职工培训,促进新技术采用;（3）调整技术引进政策,重构市场竞争环境,促进自主创新;（4）通过产业升级促进服务业发展等。