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排序方式: 共有1702条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
The Local Whittle Estimator of Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We propose a new semiparametric estimator of the degree of persistencein volatility for long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) models.The estimator uses the periodogram of the log squared returnsin a local Whittle criterion which explicitly accounts for thenoise term in the LMSV model. Finite-sample and asymptotic standarderrors for the estimator are provided. An extensive simulationstudy reveals that the local Whittle estimator is much lessbiased and that the finite-sample standard errors yield moreaccurate confidence intervals than the widely-used GPH estimator.The estimator is also found to be robust against possible leverageeffects. In an empirical analysis of the daily Deutsche Mark/USDollar exchange rate, the new estimator indicates stronger persistencein volatility than the GPH estimator, provided that a largenumber of frequencies is used. 相似文献
2.
Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions with general dependence structure 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper copulas are used to generate bivariate discrete distributions. These distributions are fitted to soccer data from the English Premier League. An interesting aspect of these data is that the primary variable of interest, the discrete pair shots-for and shots-against, exhibits negative dependence; thus, in particular, we apply bivariate Poisson-related distributions that allow such dependence. The paper focuses on Archimedian copulas, for which the dependence structure is fully determined by a one-dimensional projection that is invariant under marginal transformations. Diagnostic plots for copula fit based on this projection are adapted to deal with discrete variables. Covariates relating to within-match contributions such as numbers of passes and tackles are introduced to explain variability in shot outcomes. The results of this analysis would appear to support the notion that playing the 'beautiful game' is an effective strategy—more passes and crosses contribute to more effective play and more shots on the goal. 相似文献
3.
Sunil Poshakwale 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2002,29(9&10):1275-1299
This paper examines the random walk hypothesis in the emerging Indian stock market using daily data on individual stocks. The statistical evidence in this paper rejects the random walk hypothesis. The results suggest that daily returns earned by individual stocks and by an equally weighted portfolio show significant non–linear dependence and persistent volatility effects. The non–linear dependence takes the form of ARCH–type conditional heteroskedasticity and does not appear to be caused by nonstationarity of underlying economic variables. Though conditional volatility is time varying, it does not explain expected returns. 相似文献
4.
方位零值标校是识别器设邸统标校的一项重要内容。针对机动平台识别器设备进场安装,提出了几种标校方法,旨在解决机动平台识别器的方位零值标校问题。 相似文献
5.
J.K. Horowitz 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2002,21(3):241-258
Environmental economics has been much occupied with the discount rate, which is the value of future costs and benefits relative to present costsor benefits. But at least as important is the question of whatshould be discounted, that is, what the value of those future environmentalbenefits is to future generations. This paper analyzes the role for futurepreferences and discusses the state of knowledge. I argue that theappropriate discount rate is the market one, and that the real problemis determining future willingness-to-pay. This approach makes clearerthe connection between discounting and the valuation debate.This paper focuses on two features that have been prominent in that debate:existence value and reference dependence. I argue that thereis a vital connection between the two constructs and that this link yieldsimportant implications for future willingness-to-pay. 相似文献
6.
积极财政政策执行效果及隐忧问题研究——H省执行情况个案分析 总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15
基于凯恩斯主义国民收入决定理论 ,通过对H省经济运行数据的实证模拟 ,分析H省积极财政政策的执行情况 ,并结合H省省情和我国国情 ,我们得到了九个基本命题 :命题 1∶H省经济处于投资陷阱之中 ,因而货币政策无效 ,财政政策充分有效。命题 2∶H省的财政政策乘数为 5 596,投资需求拉动乘数为 2 3 945,消费需求拉动乘数为2 2 0 1 5,财政支出回馈乘数为 0 2 2 66。命题 3∶H省国债转贷与补助资金拉动的经济增长率为 :1 988年 0 6个百分点 ,1 999年 0 9个百分点 ,2 0 0 0年 0 6个百分点 ,2 0 0 1年 0 5个百分点。命题 4:乘数愈大 ,积极财政政策的效果愈大 ,但积极财政政策退出造成的负作用也愈大 ,总需求和经济增长对积极财政政策的依赖程度也愈强。命题 5,民营化程度愈低 ,投资的利率弹性愈低 ,货币政策愈无效 ,反之亦然。命题 6,民营化程度愈低 ,财政依赖程度愈强 ,反之亦然。命题 7:我国的积极财政政策必然会退出 ;退出的最佳方式是淡出 ;维持现有国债规模是淡出的最可能的形式 ,是一个聚点均衡。命题 8:H省的民营化程度低于全国的平均水平 ,财政依赖程度高于全国的平均水平 ,自主性增长动力尤显不足。命题 9:如果没有激励民间投资的有效措施出台 ,积极财政政策淡出将使H省经济增长速度下滑。 相似文献
7.
Taxation of Mobile Factors as Insurance under Uncertainty 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kangoh Lee 《The Scandinavian journal of economics》2004,106(2):253-271
This paper considers the effects of the taxation of mobile factors, i.e., capital, under uncertainty. The wages earned by residents of a jurisdiction are uncertain due to random shocks. Since the uncertain wages in a jurisdiction depend on the amount of mobile capital employed in the jurisdiction, and since taxation alters the quantity of capital employed, taxation affects the riskiness of uncertain wages. In particular, the taxation of capital moderates the fluctuation of uncertain wages, thereby providing insurance. For this reason, jurisdictions use distortionary capital taxation even if lump‐sum taxation is available. In addition, this insurance effect counteracts the tendency toward too low tax rates on capital arising from tax competition, and possibly improves the efficiency of tax competition. 相似文献
8.
In this paper I analyze the impact of regulatory policy on prices and demand for mobile telecommunications services across the European Union. I estimate a reduced form model of the mobile industry using panel data for the EU countries from 1998 to 2002. Among others, I find the following effects: liberalization of fixed telephone lines has a negative impact on prices and a positive impact on the demand for mobile services, and the introduction of mobile number portability has a negative impact on prices.*I am grateful to Toker Doganoglu, Gerd Hansen, Eric Kodjo Ralph, Guido Friebel, participants at the 30th EARIE Conference 2003, the 2nd International Industrial Organization Conference 2004 and the 19th Annual Congress of the EEA 2004, and anonymous referees for valuable comments. I would like to acknowledge the generous financial support from the Volkswagen Stiftung and the Munich Graduate School of Economics which made this research possible. All errors are mine.1 Source: European Commission (1994). 相似文献
9.
10.
Totti Könnölä Author Vitae Ville Brummer Author Vitae Ahti Salo Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2007,74(5):608-626
Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas. 相似文献