Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

上市公司CEO的监管机制：一个三方博弈视觉的思考

所有权与经营权的分离是现代企业的基本特征,内部人控制问题已成为制约上市公司健康稳定发展的瓶颈因素。本文通过建立一个CEO、董事会和外部监管机构三方之间的博弈模型,强调了监管的重要性;并从完善董事会职能和加强外部监管力度两个方面对上市公司CEO的道德风险之监管提出合理性建议。     

高校隐性德育资源的开发与建设

隐性德育问题是当前德育问题的重要前沿性课题。随着德育学科的科学发展以及教育的现代化趋势,重视并充分利用隐性德育资源促进高校大学生的全面发展,已经成为当前高校德育(或思想政治教育)改革的一个重要趋势。在高校中,隐性德育是相对显性德育而言的,是高校整体德育的有机组成部分,隐性德育资源对学生的发展起到潜移默化的影响和塑造作用。本文从高校隐性德育资源的内涵、开发与建设的原则和途径等方面进行阐述,意在引起对高校隐性德育资源的重视,合理开发和建设。     

新时期加强教师职业道德建设的若干思考

新时期加强都职业道德建设具有重要的意义，要从教师职业特点出发，突出重点，抓住关键环节，搞好教师职业道德教育。     

以扩大内需促进就业问题研究

随着我国经济进入新的发展阶段后,投资对劳动力逐渐显现出排挤作用,出口也由其发展前景受限而对劳动力的吸纳作用减弱。而内需由于其对劳动密集型产业产品的需求,对就业有很强的带动作用。本文将论述以内需扩大就业的必要性,找出其中存在的问题,并提出相应建议。     

Constructivist Negotiation Ethics

The success of Discourse Ethics is premised on the discovery and use of shared values. If this is true what type of negotiation style, especially when used in an intercultural setting, is best suited to make use of shared values. Research focusing on moral arguments between Germans and Americans uncovered an array of shared values. But the existence of shared values, by itself, was not an adequate predictor of a negotiation's success. What did prove to be a predictor of success was the use of a Constructivist style of negotiation by both parties.     

刍议"以德治国"的特殊社会功能

本文道德建设探讨了以德治国的社会功能。阐述了“以德治国”的重要性和必要性。     

重拾缺失了的感恩意识：高校德育必须直面的现实

感恩是中华民族几千年的传统美德，是每个人都应该具备的基本道德准则。随着我国社会主义市场经济的快速发展，部分大学生存在感恩意识缺失现象。重拾缺失了的感恩意识对于提升人的精神境界、完善人的生命以及建设和谐社会有着重要意义。     

Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?

This paper investigates the extent to which condominium apartment prices are set in an efficient asset market. Unlike previous work that focuses on the time-series properties of measures of excess returns, the analysis is framed in terms of the changes in observable house prices over time. More precisely, the paper develops and applies a test of the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations, perfect markets, and no risk premium in the Vancouver condominium apartment market. The empirical results provide significant evidence against the joint null hypothesis. On average, ex post house price changes move in a direction opposite to their rational expectation. This approach offers a methodological advantage over the standard efficiency literature and is shown to provide a more powerful test of market efficiency than conventional return regressions. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize the time-series properties of deviations of condominium prices from those predicted by the risk-neutral rational expectations model, using cointegration and random coefficients techniques. Deviations in house price changes from their (risk-neutral) rational expectations are time varying, stationary, and related to the stage of the real estate price cycle.