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排序方式: 共有613条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
运用混沌理论对我国股票市场进行了实证研究 ,结果显示我国股票市场是一个低自由度的混沌系统 ,具有自相似的非线性结构 ,并且这种非线性结构可以用 GARCH( 1 ,1 )模型来拟合。 相似文献
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Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
Catherine?Kyrtsou Walter C.?LabysEmail author Michel?Terraza 《Empirical Economics》2004,29(3):489-502
The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003 相似文献
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ITS研究中,动态OD矩阵估计是交通动态分配的关键因素。针对OD矩阵难以获得的问题,回顾动态OD矩阵估计理论的发展历程,明确该领域研究中的三个关键问题:状态变量的选择、系统方程的确定、OD量与路段流量的关系(分配矩阵)。在此基础上介绍一种基于历史OD矩阵数据的估计方法,卡尔曼滤波算法,为动态OD矩阵估计理论的进一步的研究奠定基础。 相似文献
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Tae Kyung Sung David V. Gibson Byung-Su Kang 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2003,70(5):449-466
This article explores the characteristics of venture business and entrepreneurs in Korea to (1) identify technology transfer activities, (2) analyze the differences between technology transfer in linear and nonlinear venture businesses, and (3) guide more effective venture business policy and strategy. This empirical assessment reveals that entrepreneurs have insightful evaluations about their resources and capacities as well as expectations with regard to functions and features of science parks and incubators. Respondents from “linear model”-based start-ups tend to be older and have higher education, employ more basic research and development (R&D) and have more R&D-oriented careers, and have more varied work experience than “nonlinear”-based start-ups. The functions and features of science parks and incubators were generally not considered a critical influence on start-ups nor on the growth of venture businesses. Accordingly, alternative venture-nurturing strategies are discussed as being key to accelerate venture businesses growth. 相似文献
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Extant literature calls for more research to identify the boundary conditions as well as the process underlying the effects of ad messages that violate specific brand beliefs. This paper examines different levels of ad–brand incongruity, considering brand schema strength and processing opportunity as factors that influence the perception and the resolution of incongruity. Moreover, it provides empirical evidence for the process mediating attitudinal responses to ad–brand incongruity. Experiment 1 shows superiority for moderately incongruent ads over congruent and extremely incongruent ads which is eliminated when participants have a weak, as opposed to a strong, brand schema. Experiment 2 replicates the nonmonotonic pattern for strong, real brands but further shows that low processing opportunity favors congruent ads. Mediation analysis reveals that the psychological satisfaction experienced during the ad interpretation process has an asymmetric mediating effect, such that moderate levels of ad–brand incongruity generate highest levels of satisfaction which then leads to more positive responses. 相似文献
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During a trip planning, tourists gather information from different sources, select and rank the places to visit according to their personal interests, and try to devise daily tours among them. This paper addresses the complex selection and touring problem and proposes a “filter-first, tour-second” framework for generating personalized tour recommendations for tourists based on information from social media and other online data sources. Collaborative filtering is applied to identify a subset of optional points of interest that maximize the potential satisfaction, while there are some preselected mandatory points that the tourists must visit. Next, the underlying orienteering problem is solved via an Iterated Tabu Search algorithm. The goal is to generate tours that contain all mandatory points and maximize the total score collected from the optional points visited daily, taking into account different day availabilities and opening hours, limitations on the tour lengths, budgets and other restrictions. Computational experiments on benchmark datasets indicate that the proposed touring algorithm is very competitive. Furthermore, the proposed framework has been evaluated on data collected from Foursquare. The results show the practical utility and the temporal efficacy of the recommended tours. 相似文献
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The European Commission follows a harmonized approach for calculating structural (potential) output for EU member states that takes into account labour as an important ingredient. This article shows how the recent huge migrants’ inflow to Europe affects trend output. Due to the fact that the immigrants immediately increase the working population but effectively do not enter the labour market, we illustrate that the potential output is potentially upward biased without any corrections. Taking Germany as an example, we find that the average medium-term potential growth rate is lower if the migration flow is modelled adequately compared to results based on the unadjusted European Commission procedure. 相似文献
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This paper studies the price‐setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. The classic approach of Glosten–Milgrom is followed. Bid and ask prices are defined as conditional expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers' trading decisions. The true value is modeled as a Markov process that can be observed by the customers with some noise at Poisson times. A mathematically rigorous analysis of the price‐setting problem is carried out, solving a filtering problem with endogenous filtration that depends on the bid and ask price processes quoted by the market maker. The existence and uniqueness of the bid and ask price processes is shown under some conditions. 相似文献