新冠肺炎疫情对供应链弹性管理的启示

新冠肺炎疫情将对中国产业供应链的持续竞争力形成挑战,使企业面临人力短缺、成本增加、现金流紧张和供应链不确定性增高等问题,在企业供应链的原材料供应、采购管理、生产复工、物流以及市场等方面均会产生一定的负面影响,这对供应链弹性管理提出了新的要求。在政府层面,应建立综合、协同性的产业供应链风险管理和沟通机制,构建基于事件的产业供应链预警体系,保障企业供应链运营的资源体系,推动产业平台和产业集群带动供应链参与者建立供应链弹性体系。在企业层面,应建立基于企业事件的供应链预警体系,根据供应链预警信息和状况,合理规划供应链运营方式,运用数字化能力建设企业供应链弹性体系,稳定供应链运营,提升供应链效率。     

城镇化发展与居民消费 ——基于工业生产率地区差异视角

为探究城镇化发展与居民消费之间的内在作用机制,本文基于工业生产率地区差异视角展开深入研究。结果表明:城镇化率与居民消费率之间不存在自发产生的“U”型演变关系,但工业生产率水平对两者的影响具有明显的地区异质性。因此,必须立足于中国经济发展实际,提高工业生产率水平。同时,加快推进城乡“二元”经济结构向城乡融合发展的转变,实现城镇化发展对居民消费的拉动作用。     

Negative Spillovers Across Partnerships for Responsible Innovation: Evidence from the 2014 Ebola Outbreak

Humanity faces ongoing and contemporaneous grand challenges. Occasionally, abrupt shocks escalate a grand challenge’s salience over others. Prior research has advocated forming partnerships to address grand challenges via responsible innovation. Yet, it remains unclear how temporal changes in the salience of a grand challenge impact innovation performances of partnerships. We address this research gap by bridging the literature on issue salience, responsible innovation and interorganizational relationships. We argue that shocks either aid or harm the performance of partnerships for responsible innovation depending on whether their domains are directly or indirectly affected. The Ebola outbreak in 2014 sets the empirical context to test our theory. We find that while the innovation performance of Ebola partnerships formed after the outbreak rose eleven-fold, the performance of partnerships treating Influenza fell by 84.9 per cent. Our theory and findings have immediate implications for today’s COVID-19 outbreak, cautioning against salience shifts among concurrent grand challenges.     

Shifting reactions to risks: a case study

Social science research in the field of risk analysis has emphasised evaluating the magnitude of individuals’ reactions to risks (e.g. strength and salience of concerns, frequency and forcefulness of behaviours that respond to risks). Fewer studies assess the factors that contribute to risk reactions or the types of risks to which reactions are directed (e.g. human health, wildlife health or ecosystem health risks; economic or aesthetic concerns). Theoretical and empirical research on amplification and attenuation of risk (e.g. the Social Amplification of Risk Framework) reveals that the strength of people’s reaction to risks can change markedly over time, as a function of new stimuli. We expand on this foundation to consider here how the types of risks members of the public react to may also shift over the course of their exposure to a hazard, particularly as more information about the hazard becomes available. This case study of risk reactions related to an outbreak of type E botulism in north-western Michigan, USA, demonstrates that the types of risks people react to can change substantially over time. We identify factors that contributed to changes in types of risk reactions, and then consider how these factors potentially distinguish the botulism outbreak from other outbreaks. This case study suggests that, under certain conditions, risk communication can meaningfully alter the types of risks that people react to in response to an environmental hazard. We discuss implications of these findings for risk research, risk communication and environmental conservation.     

Five Basic Insights into the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak

This article analyzes the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, and puts forward with five basic insights concerning the degree of the impact, its duration, its key areas, and its quantitative calculation, among other aspects. The article holds that it is necessary to have a more objective understanding and judgement of how the virus affects the economy, particularly gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2020Q1 and the entire year. Only on the basis of reasonable analysis can we better grasp measures required to cope with the economic impact, combined with more targeted policy launch and adjustment, so as to speed economic recovery to its normal level.     

传染病类突发公共卫生事件风险评估与应对

突发公共卫生事件会冲击社会经济运行,特别是具备传染性时这种冲击的程度和范围会更深更广,而通过建立模型来模拟传染病类突发公共卫生事件,将为传染病评估和应对提供积极有效的依据。故以SEIR模型为基准,针对SEIR模型存在的不足,将重大传染病事件分为三个阶段发展三阶段模型,将相关参数由静态参数改进为动态参数,分类模拟"封城"以及传染病存在复发可能性的情形,并利用2020年新冠肺炎疫情数据进行动态模拟。对经典SEIR模型以及改进的三阶段模型分别进行参数估计和系统仿真发现,在无人为干预的自然传播情况下,传染病感染数量峰值会出现在1~2个月后;加强隔离、加大医疗资源投入能显著减小传播规模;改进的三阶段模型能对传染病类事件起到很好的预测作用,可为未来传染病评估和应对提供有效依据。由此,为有效应对传染病类突发公共卫生事件,建议从加强隔离、加大医疗资源投入、疫情后期持续关注等角度着手完善我国传染病应急防控体系,在传染病发生时能够对相关人员做到尽早隔离,提高治愈率,减少传染数量,从源头上降低突发公共卫生事件对经济的负面影响。     

Impact of unexpected events on inbound tourism demand modeling: evidence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea

This paper attempts to evaluate how South Korea’s inbound tourist arrivals from China have been affected by the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak. Using quarterly data, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) is performed to capture the influence of the MERS outbreak. Estimation results of the general ADLM reveal that the MERS outbreak has a significant adverse impact on the total inbound tourist arrivals from China, as well as on tour arrivals; however, for business, official, and other types of tourist arrivals, its influence is insignificant. Furthermore, the error correction model is estimated to demonstrate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics among the underlying variables. Our analysis not only provides empirical evidence on evaluating the impact of the MERS outbreak on different types of tourism demand, but also identifies main determinants and suggests appropriate model specifications for each type of tourist arrivals.     

The impacts of animal disease crises on the Korean meat market

Employing the error correction method and historical decomposition with direct acyclic graphs, we quantify the impacts of domestic and overseas animal disease crises on the Korean meat market. We have the following findings: (a) the market partially recovered 16 months after the domestic foot‐and‐mouth outbreak (FMD) in 2000, and 13 months after the domestic avian influenza (AI) incidents and the U.S. bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) discovery in 2003; (b) animal disease outbreaks had differentiated impacts by disease type and at different levels of meat supply chain. Retail price margin increased relative to the farm and wholesale levels; and (c) disease outbreaks caused changes of dynamic interdependence between prices by meat type at different levels of meat supply chain.     

从新冠肺炎疫情看专业数据库在现代化经济体系中的作用

信息技术的应用使数据信息在经济体系中的作用日益重要,经济体系的功能聚焦已经由实体市场平台型经济为主导转向数据端支撑型经济为主导,打造现代化经济体系是中国经济社会发展的内生要求。研究表明,专业数据库是完成供给侧结构性改革的关键、经济主体制定经济决策的重要依据、建立高质量发展水平评价体系的基石及产业提质增效和转型升级的指示器,专业数据库起中枢作用的经济体系是真正意义上的现代化经济体系。新冠肺炎疫情的突然爆发暴露出我国现有经济体系中存在产业应急生产能力弱、产业体系不完善、产业链抵御风险能力不强、合理仓储制度缺失、社会服务体系应急水平较低、区域间存在“数字鸿沟”等短板,根源是服务于经济体系的专业数据库不健全使疫情时期我国的经济发展受到巨大影响和损失。要切实建成现代化经济体系,就必须强化专业数据库建设,弥补专业人才短板,科学建设专业数据库,加大各产业的专业数据库建设力度,灵活衔接各领域的专业数据库,加速数字产业化进程,完善劳动力信息数据库,缩小区域间的“数字鸿沟”。以现代化技术规避风险,在常规时期和非常时期均能有序平稳运行,是现代化经济体系与传统经济体系的重要差别,是宏观经济真正的高质量发展。     

新冠肺炎疫情对我国医药行业股价影响——基于ARIMA模型的实证分析

本研究选取新冠疫情发生前后四个月,即2019年9月2日至2020年4月30日上证医药收盘价,将其162个数据作为样本,运用ARIMA模型进行回溯预测。通过分析预测值与真实值的差值。得出疫情对我国医药行业股价有着正向冲击作用。随着全球疫情恶化使得正向冲击同时加剧,虽然国内新冠疫情态势已得到基本控制,但在全球大环境下其对我国医药行业股价的影响短时间内不会消退。