Forecasting unknown-unknowns by boosting the risk radar within the risk intelligent organisation

This theoretical perspective paper interprets (un)known-(un)known risk quadrants as being formed from both abstract and concrete risk knowledge. It shows that these quadrants are useful for categorising risk forecasting challenges against the levels of abstract and concrete risk knowledge that are typically available, as well as for measuring perceived levels of abstract and concrete risk knowledge available for forecasting in psychometric research. Drawing on cybersecurity risk examples, a case is made for refocusing risk management forecasting efforts towards changing unknown-unknowns into known-knowns. We propose that this be achieved by developing the ‘boosted risk radar’ as organisational practice, where suitably ‘risk intelligent’ managers gather ‘risk intelligence information’, such that the ‘risk intelligent organisation’ can purposefully co-develop both abstract and concrete risk forecasting knowledge. We also illustrate what this can entail in simple practical terms within organisations.     

雷达接收机数据采集平台及其FFT实现

介绍了小型化、通用化和实时信号处理要求下，雷达接收机的通用数据采集处理硬件平台。采用Xilinx公司最新平台级FPGA产品Spartan-3系列芯片构建平台，并实现其中的FFT于模块。试验表明，处理精度和速度都满足要求，为该方案的可行性和后续模块的实现提供了依据。     

Internal Markets,Management by Targets,and Quasi‐Markets: An Analysis of Health Care Reforms in the English NHS

There have been two major attempts to introduce market mechanisms into England's National Health Service: the ‘internal market’ reform project of the 1990s, and the ‘quasi‐market’ of the 2000s. Despite their similarities, the former attempt was on balance unsuccessful while the latter succeeded. This article examines and compares the outcomes of the two periods, analysing the reasons for their relative successes and failures. It goes on to highlight options for future reforms that would build on those achievements.     

探地雷达在公路改扩建工程检测中的应用

公路改扩建工程在广东省正处于快速发展时期,如何准确得到路面病害情况,是旧路处治方案制定面临的主要问题.依托开阳高速改扩建工程,采用三维探地雷达对旧路进行病害检测,得到道路表面及内部的病害分布情况,并分别与人工徒步调查路况及开挖后内部实际情况进行比对.结果表明:当三维探地雷达检测采样间距设置为2.0 cm、驻波时间设置为0.6 ms、时窗设置为85 ns时,可达到较好的检测精准度;三维探地雷达可实现对路面结构内部不同深度位置的裂缝病害进行探测,精确识别3 mm宽裂缝,并了解裂缝的发展方向及性质.     

较差质量数据下的返回弹道计算及对落点影响的分析

针对某老式卫星返回时雷达跟踪数据曾发生的测量异常及质量较差等情况，为解决此类数据在返回弹道及落点计算中出现的实际困难以及给出应对措施，基于工程实际情况给出了三种不同建模类型下的弹道计算方法——当前统计解耦扩展卡尔曼滤波（EKF）、动力学建模无迹卡尔曼滤波（UKF）、多项式滑窗最小二乘估计算法，并应用该次质量较差的实际观测数据进行了算法应用效果分析与落点计算情况对比，对计算中的经验及教训进行了总结。研究结果表明，所给出的三种算法在面对较差质量数据时性能差异较大，在工程实际应用中可考虑将多种算法互为参考。研究结果及其经验教训对卫星返回弹道及落点的实时估计的工程实施有一定的参考价值。     

Varying Coefficient Regression Models: A Review and New Developments

Varying coefficient regression models are known to be very useful tools for analysing the relation between a response and a group of covariates. Their structure and interpretability are similar to those for the traditional linear regression model, but they are more flexible because of the infinite dimensionality of the corresponding parameter spaces. The aims of this paper are to give an overview on the existing methodological and theoretical developments for varying coefficient models and to discuss their extensions with some new developments. The new developments enable us to use different amount of smoothing for estimating different component functions in the models. They are for a flexible form of varying coefficient models that requires smoothing across different covariates' spaces and are based on the smooth backfitting technique that is admitted as a powerful technique for fitting structural regression models and is also known to free us from the curse of dimensionality.     

综合敌我识别方法研究

针对协作式二次雷达敌我识别只能识别“我 方”,不能唯一地确认“敌方”的不足,提出基于协作式敌我识别器和信号情报的综合敌我识别方法,能较好地提供全局性的“敌方”、“我方”和“中立方”信息。介绍了系统组成,描述了系统工作过程,指出了需要进一步研究的技术。     

纵向分离能否提高企业全要素生产率?——基于电力产业"厂网分开"的研究

中国电力行业一直延续纵向分离的改革路径,继发电环节从一体化垄断结构中分离之后,2015年新一轮的电力体制改革又提出输配售电业务分离、推进电力市场化交易的目标。不同纵向结构下,电力产业链上下游企业的博弈均衡显示纵向分离改革可提高上游发电环节的竞争性,减少效率损失。进一步基于微观发电企业数据,通过双重差分及倾向得分匹配模型考察“厂网分开”这一准自然实验的效果,研究结果显示,纵向分离改革显著提升了发电企业的效率。现阶段应继续推进输配售分离改革,通过供给侧和需求侧的互动响应使上游发电环节的效率收益纵向传递,提高消费者福利。     

基于PRI信息的雷达脉冲信号分选技术研究综述

基于脉冲重复间隔（Pulse Repetition Interval,PRI）信息的雷达脉冲信号分选是电子侦察信号处理中的核心关键技术之一。以公开文献资料为来源,从直接搜索判定分选、直方图统计分选、PRI变换分选、平面变换分选、多方法综合应用等多个方面对该技术方向上的各种方法的原理、流程、特点、适用条件等进行了分类对比与归纳总结,指出了其所面临的巨大挑战,展现了其未来的发展趋势,为该方向上技术研究的深入推进与工程应用的优化推广提供了重要参考。     

一种基于雷达图的雷达辐射源识别算法

在分析和考察雷达辐射源(Radar Emitter)多特征模式识别算法的基础上提出了一种基于雷达图(Radar Chart)中向量夹角余弦值的分类识别算法,借助雷达图实现了雷达辐射源空间特征向量向平面向量的转换,实现对雷达辐射源型号的自动识别,给出识别置信度.通过计算机仿真得到大于85%的正确识别率,进一步验证了算法在雷达辐射源识别工程中的可用性和可行性.