Forecasting unknown-unknowns by boosting the risk radar within the risk intelligent organisation

This theoretical perspective paper interprets (un)known-(un)known risk quadrants as being formed from both abstract and concrete risk knowledge. It shows that these quadrants are useful for categorising risk forecasting challenges against the levels of abstract and concrete risk knowledge that are typically available, as well as for measuring perceived levels of abstract and concrete risk knowledge available for forecasting in psychometric research. Drawing on cybersecurity risk examples, a case is made for refocusing risk management forecasting efforts towards changing unknown-unknowns into known-knowns. We propose that this be achieved by developing the ‘boosted risk radar’ as organisational practice, where suitably ‘risk intelligent’ managers gather ‘risk intelligence information’, such that the ‘risk intelligent organisation’ can purposefully co-develop both abstract and concrete risk forecasting knowledge. We also illustrate what this can entail in simple practical terms within organisations.     

雷达接收机数据采集平台及其FFT实现

介绍了小型化、通用化和实时信号处理要求下，雷达接收机的通用数据采集处理硬件平台。采用Xilinx公司最新平台级FPGA产品Spartan-3系列芯片构建平台，并实现其中的FFT于模块。试验表明，处理精度和速度都满足要求，为该方案的可行性和后续模块的实现提供了依据。     

基于模糊熵和多目标规划的公路货运交通枢纽布局模型

针对货运交通枢纽布局问题,首先利用模糊熵获得指标的权重,集结指标值后得到备选交通枢纽的综合评价值,建立一个多目标规划模型来最小化交通成本,最大化建设枢纽的综合评价值,求解后确定货运枢纽的位置、数量、容量等级。     

试论企业的终端营销攻略

本文分析了销售终端在企业经营战略中的重大意义，并主要以海尔为例对当今市场经济条件下企业销售终端的建立，提出了若干思路和建议。     

Intertemporal Equity and Efficient Allocation of Resources

Competitive paths which are efficient are shown to satisfy a terminal cost minimization condition, thereby providing a continuous-time counterpart to the discrete-time result due to Malinvaud. Using this result, competitive paths which are equitable and efficient are shown to satisfy Hartwick's investment rule, which states that the value of net investment is zero at each date. Our result indicates that Hartwick's rule can help to signal inefficiency of competitive equitable paths. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C61, D90, O41.     

基于智慧管控平台的电力物资“最后一公里”供应模式创新与应用

通过梳理电力物资“最后一公里”供应中的管控痛点与相关工作现状,提出了需求信息快速传导、跨部门关键业务协同和专业业务数据壁垒破除的工作思路,由此形成“依托信息化管控平台,消除业扩配套项目物资供应管理全过程中各专业间的数据壁垒,推进各关键业务环节的智慧决策,开展物资供应储备的精准化管理与末端配送的主动式服务”的电力物资“最后一公里”供应创新模式,并论述了该模式的管控体系构建和智慧管控平台的关键决策技术与方法,余杭公司实践情况表明该模式能有效提升电力物资“最后一公里”供应效率、保障业扩提质增效。     

城市物流基地选址问题研究

本文将物流基地纳入城市交通网络中，以体现交通状况对物流基地选址的影响。在进行选址时，以运输费用和基地的投资、管理费用总和最小为规划者的主要目标，建立目标函数。选址的上层模型体现了运输费用和基地投资费用、管理费用最小的原则，下层模型体现了入选点的不同对交通流量分配的影响，下层模型是求解上层模型的基础。     

逆向配送集成模型终端运输线路的优化研究

研究了正逆向集成配送的终端线路优化原则和优化方法，依据运输产品的性质将逆向配送产品分为可以与正向配送同车运输和不能同车运输两类，分别探讨了这两类产品的集成配送终端的线路优化策略，并用一个实例加以说明。     

成品油终端市场顾客需求模型的构建

在越来越激烈的成品油终端市场竞争中，只有及时了解并满足顾客需求，成品油销售企业才能获得生存与发展。从成品油最终顾客出发，分析顾客需求之相关因素及重要性程度，综合运用层次分析法和矩阵分析法，建立成品油终端市场顾客需求模型，从而为成品油销售企业认识和满足顾客需求提供了客观科学的依据。     

Ratio-based design hour determination for airport passenger terminal facilities

To avoid both over-design and under-sizing of airport passenger terminal facilities such as security checkpoints, the infrastructure is designed for a specifically determined design load. As such, the design load is considered for a short period of time, usually an hour of operation, during which peak, though not necessarily maximum, demand occurs. For strategic planning applications, future design loads can be determined by either fictitious flight schedules or ratio-based models which forecast the relationship between design load and annual demand. This study presents two ratio-based methods which allow the direct determination of design hour loads (DHL) for passenger terminal facilities. The unsaturated DHL model considers the relationship between observed passenger flows in the terminal and aggregated annual demand data. The saturated DHL model includes several operational constraints which limit the actual DHL, such as limitations in the runway system or the fleet mix operating at an airport. Both models are applied to two real-world airports, for which the DHL of the security checkpoint facilities is estimated from large datasets covering multiple years. Results are significant at the 5 % level and suggest that the proposed ratio-based methods are appropriate for airport strategic planning applications.