The Effect of Disagreement on Noncooperative Bargaining

A seemingly mild assumption of the standard alternating offers bargaining model under risk is that the breakdown event is not strictly worse than the worst agreement. When this assumption is relaxed the structure of the equilibrium set of agreements changes in an interesting way. We analyse the effect of disagreement on equilibrium, and relate our result to a class of outside option models. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: C78.     

新规则实施对空手道裁判员执裁的影响

世界空手道联盟(WKF)2011年12月颁布最新修改审定的《空手道比赛规则》。规则是构建训练和比赛体系的向导,裁判员对规则的理解和执行是比赛的核心:裁判员执裁水平越高,运动员比赛水平就越高。通过对新旧规则主要内容的对比和分析,提高我国空手道裁判员的业务水平,由此带动我国空手道运动的良性发展。     

Fundamental disagreement

We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons. We propose a generalized model of imperfect information that can jointly explain these facts. We further use the term structure of disagreement to show that the monetary policy rule perceived by professional forecasters features a high degree of interest-rate smoothing and time variation in the intercept.     

Acceptance of Accounting Standards

When financial statements are audited, a client and auditor may disagree about an accounting disclosure. While the disclosure of such a disagreement may increase the information content of a statement it may also be socially undesirable in that it signals a difference in views about the state of the reporting enterprise. This in turn may increase agency costs and introduce uncertainty about the state of the firm. In this paper we focus on public policy implications concerning auditor-client disagreements and examine the ex ante probability that such cases will occur. We find that accounting standards that allow two accounting options may be optimal in reducing frequency of disagreements among auditors and between standard-setters and their constituencies, and possibly also between clients and their auditors. The New Zealand model of compliance with accounting standards may be preferable to that practiced in the US.     

The Beauty Contest and Short‐Term Trading

Short‐termism need not breed informational price inefficiency even when generating beauty contests. We demonstrate this claim in a two‐period market with persistent liquidity trading and risk‐averse, privately informed, short‐term investors and find that prices reflect average expectations about fundamentals and liquidity trading. Informed investors engage in “retrospective” learning to reassess inferences (about fundamentals) made during the trading game's early stages. This behavior introduces strategic complementarities in the use of information and can yield two stable equilibria that can be ranked in terms of liquidity, volatility, and informational efficiency. We derive implications that explain market anomalies as well as empirical regularities.     

从裁判型国家的演化看有为政府的济民功能及防蜕约束

新结构经济学中有为政府实际上对应了一种裁判型国家。裁判型国家根本上把国家视为服务于所有成员的公共性社会机构,从而具有善的性质;正是为了发挥善的行为,人们往往赋予这种国家及其政府相当大的权力。但在现实世界中,那些掌握公权力的代理人往往会为了个人目标和利益而滥用组织手段,从而导致裁判型国家及其政府的功能发生蜕变。从这个意义上说,任何承担积极功能的有为政府都不能是无限政府,而必须在一套相对成熟和完善的规范和监督体系下运作。     

Shareholders' choice

We address the question of which production decisions are reached via shareholder voting, if the firm's shareholders disagree. The median-voter approach is applied. Three dichotomies are explored: the one-man-one-vote versus the one-share-one-vote rule, naive versus sophisticated investors, before- versus after-trade voting. Novel asymptotic results are obtained.     

Differently motivated exchange traded fund trading activities and the volatility of the underlying index

This paper examines the correlations between two types of a market index's volatility and three trading motives of the index's exchange traded funds (ETFs). We find that ETF trading driven by belief dispersion is highly correlated with both the variance in efficient price innovations (VEPI) and the index's total volatility. Privately informed ETF trading is closely connected to the VEPI but not the total volatility, while liquidity ETF trading explains the total volatility but has little power in explaining the VEPI. Moreover, the leading ETF dominates smaller ETFs in explaining both types of volatility and often has more explanatory power than control variables.     

Effects of transparency,monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations

The literature on transparency and central bank communication and the literature on disagreement about expectations are evolving; however, both have been evolving separately. Despite the advances in the literature, several key issues remain open and there are gaps to be filled. Therefore, this study analyses the effects of monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations. It also investigates whether greater transparency coincides with lower levels of disagreement in inflation expectations in Brazil. The findings suggest that transparency is important to reduce disagreement about inflation expectations. Moreover, our estimates indicate that central bank communication and clarity affect disagreement about inflation expectations in Brazil.