改进后的PERT方法在进度风险分析中的应用

风险分析是进度控制中的重要内容。针对经典PERT网络的假设和计算过程,分析出它存在的三方面缺陷。并提出解决问题的三种具体措施,从概率论与数理统计的角度,对关键线路和关键工作进行了重新定义和确定的方法。     

CCM在公路工程项目进度管理中的实证分析

本文论述了CCM技术以及项目进度延迟的原因。并采用基于TOC的CCM技术,对公路工程 项目进度管理进行了实证分析。通过分析结果与传统方法的比较,论证CCM技术在公路工程项目进度管 理中的实用价值。     

一种基于遗传算法求解车间调度问题的优化方法

遗传算法是解决车间调度问题的有效方法之一。但在构造适应度函数时由于调度问题诸多的束条件使得直接求解十分困难。罚函数法将约束条件加到目标函数上，变有约束为无约束．能较易求解该类问题。     

多约束事件下施工进度计划控制技术

通过对影响工程进度的约束事件的分析，在横道图和关键线路网络图（CPM）的基础上，力图建立一种施工现场实用直观的进度计划控制图技术。有利于工期的控制，用其作为进度记录和报告、评价延误和变更影响的载体也非常方便，可以作为调整项目完工时间的模型。     

Extreme Value Theory and Statistics of Univariate Extremes: A Review

Statistical issues arising in modelling univariate extremes of a random sample have been successfully used in the most diverse fields, such as biometrics, finance, insurance and risk theory. Statistics of univariate extremes (SUE), the subject to be dealt with in this review paper, has recently faced a huge development, partially because rare events can have catastrophic consequences for human activities, through their impact on the natural and constructed environments. In the last decades, there has been a shift from the area of parametric SUE, based on probabilistic asymptotic results in extreme value theory, towards semi‐parametric approaches. After a brief reference to Gumbel's block methodology and more recent improvements in the parametric framework, we present an overview of the developments on the estimation of parameters of extreme events and on the testing of extreme value conditions under a semi‐parametric framework. We further discuss a few challenging topics in the area of SUE. © 2014 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2014 International Statistical Institute     

Asymptotic comparison at optimal levels of reduced‐bias extreme value index estimators

In this article we are interested in the asymptotic comparison, at optimal levels, of a set of semi‐parametric reduced‐bias extreme value (EV) index estimators, valid for a wide class of heavy‐tailed models, underlying the available data. Again, as in the classical case, there is not any estimator that can always dominate the alternatives, but interesting clear‐cut patterns are found. Consequently, and in practice, a suitable choice of a set of EV index estimators will jointly enable us to better estimate the EV index γ, the primary parameter of extreme events.     

Assessing strategic flight schedules at an airport using machine learning-based flight delay and cancellation predictions

To mitigate air traffic demand-capacity imbalances, large European airports implement strategic flight schedules, where flights are assigned arrival/departure slots several months prior to execution. We propose a generic assessment of such strategic schedules using predictions about arrival/departure flight delays and cancellations. We demonstrate our approach for strategic flight schedules in the period 2013–2018 at London Heathrow Airport. Together with the development of dedicated strategic flight schedule optimization models, our proposed approach supports an integrated strategic flight schedule assessment, where schedules are evaluated with respect to flight delays and cancellations.     

工程项目施工进度分析及控制

文章主要对工程项目进度控制的影响因素进行了分析,从组织、经济、合同、技术等方面提出了具体的控制措施。     

中国数字化产业竞争力的区域差异与影响效应

本文从规模优势和发展潜力两个维度,提出数字化产业竞争力的测度方法,并以中国上市公司企业数据为基础,探讨区域层面的差异特征;利用半参数模型,从区域与行业双重层面,探究技术创新在数字化产业竞争力提升进程中的影响效应。研究发现：首先,当前中国数字化产业竞争力显著提升,但整体上呈现出由东部沿海向西部内陆递减的阶梯化分布特征,差异突出体现在规模优势层面。其次,技术创新对数字化产业竞争力的提升整体上存在倒U型影响效应,且表现出区域和行业差异。一方面,不同于东部地区,技术创新在中西部地区对数字化产业竞争力发挥着显著的正向推动作用;另一方面,不同于数字化服务业,技术创新对数字化制造业竞争力提升具有持续驱动效应。进一步分析表明,数字化制造业和数字化服务业耦合协调度处于较低的非均衡性状态。     

基于关键线路的改进挣值法模型

传统挣值法在我国工程项目管理应用中还存在一定的缺陷,有时不能准确反映工程实际完成情况,给项目管理带来一些困难。为了使挣值法在工程项目管理中发挥积极作用,通过模拟工程案例,着重指出传统挣值法管理技术忽略了关键线路上工序的进度对于工程项目总进度的决定性作用,导致判断失误。在此基础上,提出了解决的问题的方法,通过对关键线路的挣值分析,建立了基于关键线路的改进挣值法模型和判断标准。