人口结构转变与金融市场发展

文章分析了人口结构变动、居民财富增长和金融市场发展间的关系,通过实证研究,文章认为,在中国人口老龄化这一结构变动趋势下,未来股票市场可能面临下行压力,而固定收益类产品,尤其是债券市场将迎来发展机遇,但长期利率可能面临下行压力。     

OCB视角下的派遣员工激励

经济全球化背景下的产业转移升级和企业用工需求的增长,正推动服务外包业务加快进行。特别是在全球金融动荡的经济环境下,将有更多的跨国公司将其非核心业务外包,以降低成本、增强竞争力,这些因素都将推动劳务派遣用工方式的加速进行。因此,派遣员工的规范、管理、激励等问题亟待解决。文章在激励理论和组织公民行为理论的基础上,分析了不同类型派遣员工组织公民行为的分类和特征,提出基于组织公民行为理论的派遣员工激励策略。     

Potential Spatial Labor and Human Capital Mobility in China: Evidence from College Admissions Under the National College Entrance Examination System

Abstract:

Higher education in China plays an important role in promoting labor and human capital mobility. In this paper, I empirically address the issue of regional disparities, college admissions under the National College Entrance Examination (CEE) system, and potential interregional labor and human capital mobility in China. The results show that examinees from western provinces have a strong preference for coastal universities, compared with examinees from central provinces. College admissions in China then seem to have a stronger effect on potential labor and human capital movement from the western to the coastal regions than from the central to the coastal regions.     

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia , the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield – the gilt-equity yield ratio – has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns.     

Some Empirical Evidence of the Efficacy of Job Matching in Urban Labor Markets

Theory predicts that workers in cities are more likely to engage in job search, ceteris paribus, due to market efficiencies associated with greater job density. However, if job search is more efficient in urban markets, then the quality of a given job match should also tend to be higher in cities, ceteris paribus. Employed workers living in cities might then be expected to search less than their nonurban counterparts. In this latter instance, it is not city residency itself that makes search less likely, but rather the positive correlation between city residency and job match quality. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, this prediction is confirmed: The estimated coefficient on an indicator of urban residency is found to be near zero and statistically insignificant in models of employed search that omit proxies for job match quality. When job match proxies are included in the models, the estimated coefficient on urban residency becomes positive and highly significant. This result suggests that workers are not only more likely to engage in employed search in urban labor markets, but also tend to find more productive job matches in cities over time.

New Technology in Unionized Firms: Advantages of Mandatory Bargaining

U.S. Labor Law currently allows employers whose work forces are unionized to introduce new technologies without bargaining over the decision to do so. This forces unions to adopt inefficient strategies when negotiating collective bargaining agreements in an effort to minimize the impact of technological change on their members. Allowing unions to bargain over the decision to introduce new technologies would obviate their having to resort to these inefficient strategies. In addition, it might increase the likelihood of employees suggesting alterations in production processes that would increase the rate of technological change. For these reasons, this article advocates amending U.S. labor law to require employers to bargain over the introduction of new technologies.