Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

高科技创业企业社会网络的生成机理与特点分析

本文分析了社会网络的研究现状,指出从经济学与管理学的角度探讨社会网络的必要性;分析了高科技创业企业社会网络的生成机理,界定了高科技创业企业社会网络的内涵,并探讨了高科技创业企业社会网络节约交易成本、分散分摊风险、发挥网络特性等特点。     

中小型高新技术企业初创期融资风险评价——基于模糊支持向量机融资风险评价方法

本文提出了基于模糊支持向量机的融资风险评价方法。该方法能够对融资风险进行有效地评价,从而为防范和规避融资风险提供依据。     

Regional variations in entrepreneurial cognitions: Start-up intentions of university students in Spain

Empirical research has recently paid considerable attention to the role of environmental factors in explaining regional variations in entrepreneurial activity. However, cognitive models have not usually included these factors in their analyses. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to identify some of the environmental cognitive elements that may explain regional differences in start-up intentions. Thus, an entrepreneurial intention model is developed, theoretically based on the planned behaviour approach, institutional economic theory and social capital theory. The empirical analysis is carried out using structural equation techniques over a sample of 549 final year university students from two Spanish regions (Catalonia and Andalusia). Results confirm that valuation of entrepreneurship in each region helps explain regional differences in entrepreneurial intentions. As expected, social valuation of the entrepreneur was higher in the more developed region (Catalonia), positively affecting perceived subjective norms and behavioural control. In Andalusia, the influence of perceived valuation of the entrepreneur in the closer environment was more important, affecting attitude towards the behaviour and subjective norms. These results explain some of the differences in the pool of potential entrepreneurs in each region. They also justify the need by public-policy decision-makers to promote more positive entrepreneurial values in relatively backward regions.     

UASB反应器设计及启动实验

UASB反应器是当前发展最快的一种废水处理工艺。本文重点介绍了UASB反应器的设计原则和设计方法,以及UASB反应器各部分尺寸的计算和确定原则,并对反应器进行了常温启动实验。实验结果表明:用葡萄糖配水模拟生活污水,进水COD控制在500mg/L,反应器运行一个月,进水COD去除率达到71.2%。进水的pH控制在7.5-8.0可以保证反应器的正常稳定运行。     

初创期科技型中小企业融资特征的案例研究

本文以初创期科技型中小企业为研究对象,对其融资特征进行研究.主要采用文献研究和案例研究方法,借助问卷调查和访谈等手段,比较分析了四个初创期科技型中小企业的融资特征.研究表明,我国初创期科技型中小企业的融资目的、融资需求、主要融资渠道和融资方式等方面呈现出许多新特征.     

战略性新兴产业集群创新网络形成机制研究——基于灰靶双边匹配的决策方法

战略性新兴产业的发展对国民经济和社会发展具有重要的战略意义,目前中国战略性新兴产业仍面临着“高端产业,低端技术”的发展困境,如何突破产业关键技术促进产业健康、可持续发展已成为亟待解决的问题。战略性新兴产业集群创新网络的形成是突破产业关键技术、共性技术及前瞻性技术的核心环节,中国正在兴起的产业技术研究院、航空高技术产业园等跨组织知识集成平台为培育和发展战略性新兴产业集群创新网络提供了重要的支撑平台。本文依托跨组织知识集成平台探究了战略性新兴产业集群创新网络的形成机制,构建了创新主体间的灰靶双边匹配模型,并采用平衡计分法建立了以创新能力为重要衡量标准的综合评价指标体系,最后通过案例进行了分析,证明了其有效性和实用性,可为促进战略性新兴产业集群创新网络的形成提供理论指导。     

“低碳”条件下后发地区发展战略研究——以湖北省黄冈市为例

在“低碳”条件下，后发地区如何发展经济，造福一方百姓，是需要认真研究的现实问题。以湖北省黄冈市为例，提出四个转向：用“多元经济”取代单一工业发展模式；用“人口进城”取代单一GDP数字增长；用“项目招标”取代单一招商引资工作和用“就业创业”取代单一社会管理控制，用新的价值取向取代原有的社会运作模式。     

Joint effects of prior start-up experience and coping strategies on entrepreneurs’ psychological well-being

Drawing on theories from the coping and entrepreneurship literatures, we investigated the relationship between the entrepreneurs’ active and avoidance coping on psychological well-being (PWB) and the moderating role of prior start-up experience on this relationship. Data from 156 entrepreneurs indicate that the use of avoidance coping positively predicted immediate PWB for entrepreneurs with more start-up experience. Notably, this relationship was negative for entrepreneurs with less start-up experience. We also found that over the extended period, entrepreneurs who used avoidance coping had improved PWB only if they also used active coping. Theoretical and practical contributions to the entrepreneurship and coping research are discussed.     

Entrepreneurial resource acquisition via personal networks: an empirical study of German start-ups

This paper presents a resource-based theoretical model for an extended version of the network success hypothesis. It derives four main hypotheses for the relationships between resources obtained from personal networks of the founders and a new venture's success. The model takes into account a broad range of control variables. In the empirical study, based on a sample of 123 German entrepreneurs, we do not find much support for our hypotheses. We conclude that, quite in contrast to most existing theories, network links have close to no impact on getting cheap or exclusive resources.