中国共产党领导下的百年审计事业发展与作用发挥

中国共产党自1921年建党以来,就一直高度重视审计在党的事业发展中的重要角色。审计事业在百年党史中获得蓬勃发展,并且在党和国家事业发展不同阶段中发挥了重要作用。审计在新时代背景下应对现存问题做出进一步改革,从而更好地发挥审计在国家治理中的监督作用。     

Economic Valuation of Health for Environmental Policy: Comparing Alternative Approaches. Introduction and Overview

Protecting human health is a primary goal of environmental policy and economic evaluation of health can help policy-makers judge the relative worth of alternative actions. Economists use two distinct approaches in normatively evaluating health. Whereas environmental economists use benefit-cost analysis supported by monetary valuation in terms of willingness-to-pay, health economists evaluate interventions based on cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis (CEA), using quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) or similar indexes. This paper provides background on the controversy about the relative merits of these approaches and introduces the remaining papers in the special issue. These papers (with one exception) were presented at a conference sponsored by the Department of Economics at the University of Central Florida with support from the US Environmental Protection Agency. Although CEA might not lead to substantially different implications for environmental policy than benefit-cost analysis, and QALY may provide a benefit transfer tool to fill gaps in the morbidity valuation literature, the papers in this issue raise serious concerns about the suitability of QALY-based CEA for environmental regulatory analysis. QALY does not in general appropriately represent individual preferences for health and CEA is neither independent of income distribution nor adequate to assess efficiency.     

房地产还原利率的构成与测算

从分析投资的风险补偿入手，提出了房地产还原利率的构成和测算公式，同时指出了构成房地产还原利率的银行利率应是复利计算方式下，相应年期的利率，然后探讨了房地产还原利率各构成部分的测算过程，并以中国房地产市场个人住房抵押贷款市场为例，给出了不同收益年限的房地产还原利率参考数据。     

未来三十年我国及省际人口变动趋势

分析了我国人口的变动特点,并对未来三十年我国及省际人口的变动趋势作了预测,论述了我国未来人口的空间分布变动特点。     

The Load Model: an alternative to QALY

Background: QALYs are widely used in health economic evaluation, but remain controversial, largely because they do not reflect how many people behave in practice. This paper presents a new conceptual model (Load Model) and illustrates it in comparison with the QALY model.

Methods: Load is the average annual weight attributed to morbidity and mortality over a defined period, using weightings based on preference judgements. Morbidity Load is attributed to states of illness, according to their perceived severity. When people are in full health, Load is zero (no morbidity). Death is treated as an event with negative consequences, incurred in the year following death. Deaths may be weighted equally, with a fixed negative weight such as ?100, or differ according to the context of death. After death, Load is zero. In a worked example, we use the standard gamble method to obtain a weighting for an illness state, for both Load and QALY models. A judge is indifferent between certainty of 1.5 years’ illness followed by death, or a 50/50 chance of 1.5 years’ full health or 1-year illness, each followed by death. The weightings calculated are applied to a hypothetical life, 72 years in full health followed by 3 years with illness then death, using both models. Three other hypothetical outcomes are also compared.

Results: For an example life, the relative size of the morbidity component compared with the mortality component is much higher in the Load model than in the QALY model. When comparing alternative outcomes, there are also substantial differences between the two models.

Conclusions: In the Load model the weight of morbidity, relative to mortality, is very different from that in the QALY model. Given the role of the QALYs in economic evaluation, the implications of an alternative, which generates very different results, warrant further exploration.     

改革开放40年乡村发展的历程与经验启示

党的十九大首次提出了"乡村振兴"战略,但乡村振兴的实践早已开启,并不断推动我国乡村跨越式发展。从改革开放40年的历史动态中认识乡村发展,就会发现了其理论内涵在不断丰富;与理论内涵的演进过程相对应,乡村发展历经五个阶段,即：乡村经济的初步振兴、改进乡村治理的探索、中国特色的社会主义新农村建设、社会主义新农村建设和走中国特色社会主义乡村振兴道路;由此形成了四条基本经验：正确把握农村改革的基本规律、与时俱进地推进全面深化改革、树立以农民为中心的发展理念、构建和完善以基层党组织为核心的乡村治理体系。     

高举旗帜 解放思想 扎实工作努力实现嘉兴学院又好又快的发展

改革开放30年是嘉兴学院不断扩大办学规模、提升办学层次、增强办学实力、实现跨越式发展的30年。30年的艰辛探索和办学实践告诉我们,要实现学校又好又快的发展,必须坚持解放思想、改革创新与实事求是、脚踏实地相结合,进一步解决办学中的突出问题;坚持提高质量、以内涵发展为主与拓展外延、扩大办学空间相结合,提升办学综合实力;坚持学科建设为龙头与突出学科专业特色相结合,培育办学特色;坚持办学以教师为主体与教育以学生为主体相结合,充分调动广大师生教与学的积极性;坚持办学为区域经济发展服务与办学跟国际合作交流相结合,拓展办学的国内外空间;坚持加强学校管理工作与完善院校二级管理体制相结合,进一步调动二级学院办学的积极性;坚持加强校园文化建设与社会主义核心价值体系建设相结合,进一步营造良好的育人氛围;坚持加强党的建设与民主办学相结合,进一步促进和谐校园建设。学校正处在实施第二步发展战略的关键时期,必须以科学发展观为指导,高举旗帜,解放思想,扎实工作,努力实现嘉兴学院又好又快的发展。     

中国温泉旅游研究三十年进展

在过去的30年间,温泉旅游研究文献总量已经积累到了可以综述的阶段,无论是研究活动、研究内容都呈现了可划分阶段的性质并出现了区域分异,评述了中国温泉旅游研究30年进展,并对今后的研究方向进行了讨论。     

十年建设时期民族区域自治的曲折发展

从1957年到1966年的近10年，是我国开始全面建设社会主义的时期，也是我国民族区域自治曲折发展的时期。在这一时期，民族区域自治呈现出成绩与失误并存、经验与教训交织的双重特征。     

从历年第一季度经济运行看广西2009年经济走势

为研究2009年广西宏观经济走势及发展对策,采用回归分析法和图解法运用影响广西宏观经济的五个主要指标对1997年以来第一季度对全年的贡献度进行了研究。结果表明:各指标一季度产出和全年产出具有同向性,线性拟合良好。在对2009年第一季度对全年影响进行预测后,文章认为,面对国际金融危机,当前经济企稳回升的广西需要:以6000亿为目标加快推进项目建设、以工业结构优化升级为导向的改投资、以供应链融资为核心的中小企业发展模式和以错位发展为前提的区域合作模式。