The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.     

Relationship between positive psychological capital and creative performance

Despite considerable attention to the creative process and its relationship with personal characteristics, there is no published study focused directly on the relationship between the recently recognized core construct of psychological capital (PsyCap) and creative performance. Drawing from a large (N = 899) and heterogeneous sample of working adults, this study investigates PsyCap and its components (i.e., efficacy, hope, optimism, and resilience) as predictors of creative performance. Overall PsyCap predicted creative performance over and above each of the four PsyCap components. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are considered. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

评析技术悲观主义与技术乐观主义

科技悲观主义和科技乐观主义从不同的关注点,为科学技术在社会中扮演的角色进行界定,或令人充满希望;或令人恐惧。两种思想都具有片面性和局限性,但对社会的发展都有重要的启示作用。我们应全面、辨证地评价技术的社会作用及其产生的社会后果。     

员工主动性人格对其心理资本的影响

心理资本是组织行为学与管理学领域中的一个新兴的研究热点,它对许多组织后果变量都有积极影响,但目前关于心理资本的前因变量研究较为缺乏。文章从员工主动性人格这一视角切入,探讨了员工主动性人格对心理资本水平的影响。通过问卷调查,利用相关统计方法对数据进行分析,结果发现:员工的主动性人格能显著地正向预测其整体心理资本及其乐观、希望、韧性、自我效能等四个维度。理论上丰富了主动性人格与心理资本的研究领域,实践上为企业员工的人才选拔与素质培训提供了参考。     

Taking a positive approach to organizational downsizing

We drew from the literature on positive organizational behaviour (Luthans & Youssef, 2007) to test a process model relating generalized optimism (Carver & Scheier, 1999) to the cognitions, affect, and behaviour of 237 Canadian federal government managers during and following a major organizational downsizing. Our data supported a model in which generalized optimism measured 18 months prior to the downsizing (T1) associated positively with managers' cognitions, attitudes, job performance, and self‐reported coping effectiveness measured 12 months postdownsizing (T3). Analyses suggested that some of these associations were partially mediated by a positive thinking coping strategy and expectations for future career and job success reported during the downsizing (T2). We advocate for more research that draws from the positive organizational behaviour literature to study the effects of downsizing on survivors. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managerial optimism: New observations on the unifying theory

Managerial optimism theory is behavioral finance's greatest achievement. It explains two prominent features of corporate financial behavior – over‐investment and pecking‐order capital structure preferences – that otherwise require two different theories with mutually incompatible assumptions about managerial loyalties to shareholder‐value maximization. After reviewing the development of managerial optimism as a unifying theory, I use a simple change of measure to transform risk‐averse optimism to risk‐neutral probabilities that can be pessimistic or optimistic depending on wealth changes. This unexplored feature has implications for, among other things, pay for performance when managers are excessively optimistic.     

Explaining the Short‐ and Long‐Term IPO Anomalies in the US by R&D

Abstract:   Financial scholars who research the initial underpricing and long‐term underperformance of IPOs generally attribute these phenomena to information asymmetry and investors' misevaluations. Here, we identify, on a sample of 2,696 US IPOs issued during 1980–1995, a widespread source of information asymmetry and valuation uncertainty—the R&D activities of issuers—and document that these activities significantly affect both the initial underpricing of IPOs (R&D is positively correlated with underpricing) and their long‐term performance (R&D is positively related to long‐term performance). Given the pervasiveness and constant growth of firms' R&D activities in modern economies, our identification of R&D as a major factor affecting IPO's performance contributes to the understanding of this important economic and capital market phenomenon.     

Disclosure of internal control material weaknesses and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts

This paper investigates how analyst forecast optimism is associated with disclosures of internal control material weaknesses (ICMWs) and their remediation under Section 404 of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX). Drawing on agency theory, I hypothesize that analysts are likely to issue earnings forecasts that are more optimistic for firms with ICMW disclosures than for those without ICMW disclosures. Using a sample of 20,875 firm-year observations with 10-K (10-Q) reports from 2004 to 2018, I find a positive association between ICMW disclosures and analyst forecast optimism. This positive association is partially driven by investors’ inability to unravel analyst forecast bias and analysts’ intentions to curry favor with management for private information. In addition, analysts are found to issue less optimistic forecasts for firms with ICMW remediation disclosures compared with those without ICMW remediation disclosures. A series of propensity score matching and regression analyses are conducted to test the robustness of my inferences. Overall, the paper suggests that analysts have incentives to take the opportunity of firms disclosing ICMWs to bias their forecasts upward for self-interest. The findings have the potential to assist regulators in guiding analyst behavior and educating investors to unravel positive bias in analyst forecasts.     

CEO–CFO team optimism: Commercial real estate transactions and REIT performance

The managerial optimism literature concentrates on CEOs neglecting other executive team members. We evaluate the interplay of the optimism levels of the CEOs and CFOs of real estate investment trusts, and study their commercial real estate transactions. We find that firms led by optimistic CEO/CFO teams pay 3% more than their peers for their asset acquisitions if cash ratio increases by one percentage point. Our findings also exhibit inferior stock performance by optimistic teams following a transaction. Conversely, diversity in terms of CEO/CFO optimism prevents firms from overpaying, serving as a soft governance mechanism with salience to firm performance.     

Affiliated block shareholders and analyst optimism

We investigate several previously under-documented conflicts of interest that may result in analyst optimism by utilizing two unique features of brokerage firms in China, namely, the dominant ownership of large shareholders within the brokerage firms and the mandatory disclosure of brokerage firms’ commission income derived from each mutual fund client. We show that controlling shareholders of an analyst’s brokerage-firm put pressure on the analyst to report more optimistically biased earnings forecasts and recommendations to the stocks they hold larger positions in. We also find that the magnitude of analyst optimism increases with the shareholdings of the mutual funds that contribute commission fees to the analyst’s brokerage firm. These findings remain robust after incorporating a regulation change that reduces conflicts of interest in the brokerage industry and higher dimensional fixed effects, and thus are unlikely to be driven by reverse causality or omitted variable bias.