A Statistical Model to Investigate the Reproducibility Rate Based on Replication Experiments

The reproducibility crisis, that is, the fact that many scientific results are difficult to replicate, pointing to their unreliability or falsehood, is a hot topic in the recent scientific literature, and statistical methodologies, testing procedures and p‐values, in particular, are at the centre of the debate. Assessment of the extent of the problem–the reproducibility rate or the false discovery rate–and the role of contributing factors are still an open problem. Replication experiments, that is, systematic replications of existing results, may offer relevant information on these issues. We propose a statistical model to deal with such information, in particular to estimate the reproducibility rate and the effect of some study characteristics on its reliability. We analyse data from a recent replication experiment in psychology finding a reproducibility rate broadly coherent with other assessments from the same experiment. Our results also confirm the expected role of some contributing factor (unexpectedness of the result and room for bias) while they suggest that the similarity between original study and the replica is not so relevant, thus mitigating some criticism directed to replication experiments.     

Model selection in random effects models for directed graphs using approximated Bayes factors

With the development of an MCMC algorithm, Bayesian model selection for the p ₂ model for directed graphs has become possible. This paper presents an empirical exploration in using approximate Bayes factors for model selection. For a social network of Dutch secondary school pupils from different ethnic backgrounds it is investigated whether pupils report that they receive more emotional support from within their own ethnic group. Approximated Bayes factors seem to work, but considerable margins of error have to be reckoned with.     

中国风电产业在国际市场崛起的挑战分析

2010年,以金凤科技、华锐风电为代表的中国风电企业在赢得了快速增长之后展现出加快国际化步伐的态势。尽管现在走出去的中国风电企业仍是少数,但国际化进程已不可避免。本文着重总结了中国风电企业在国际化过程中会面临的挑战,并以美对华301调查为案例,分析了其给中国风电产业带来的风险和影响,从中获得启示,以加快我国新能源产业国际化的步伐。     

Nearly exact sample size calculation for powerful non‐randomized tests for differences between binomial proportions

In the case of two independent samples, it turns out that among the procedures taken in consideration, BOSCHLOO'S technique of raising the nominal level in the standard conditional test as far as admissible performs best in terms of power against almost all alternatives. The computational burden entailed in exact sample size calculation is comparatively modest for both the uniformly most powerful unbiased randomized and the conservative non‐randomized version of the exact Fisher‐type test. Computing these values yields a pair of bounds enclosing the exact sample size required for the Boschloo test, and it seems reasonable to replace the exact value with the middle of the corresponding interval. Comparisons between these mid‐N estimates and the fully exact sample sizes lead to the conclusion that the extra computational effort required for obtaining the latter is mostly dispensable. This holds also true in the case of paired binary data (McNemar setting). In the latter, the level‐corrected score test turns out to be almost as powerful as the randomized uniformly most powerful unbiased test and should be preferred to the McNemar–Boschloo test. The mid‐N rule provides a fairly tight upper bound to the exact sample size for the score test for paired proportions.     

企业改制中税收流失问题的分析

在改制过程中,有些企业为了一己私欲,采用转移税源、模糊产权、钻体制漏洞等手段,偷税、漏税,导致大量税收流失,使国家遭受巨大损失。应统一对改制企业欠税问题的认识,加强对各种所有制性质企业的税收管理,防范和制止企业借改制、改组之机逃避税收债务;完善税收征管法,以确保国家税收债权,维护国家合法权益。     

基于价值链的人力资源4p管理模式研究

人力资源价值链管理是一种以价值为中心的基于协作的策略。它能够有效地提高企业的竞争力,赢得竞争优势并实现人力资本的价值增值。通过对人力资源价值链当中的价值活动的分析,构建以价值为导向,以价值分析为切入点,来实现价值培养、价值评价、价值分配的有机结合和良性循环的人力资源4P管理模式。     

论我国对外贸易中的知识产权问题

本文通过对中国在WTO中的知识产权涉诉情况及经历的301条款和337条款诉讼情况进行分析,认为我国政府、行业协会和企业应当密切合作,确立长期目标和措施,在理论和实践等各方面提高应诉能力。     

美国贸易法“301条款”与中美贸易争端

自2017年8月美国贸易代表办公室(United States Trade Representative,简称USTR)宣布对中国展开"301调查"至今,中美贸易争端历经缓和又走向极端,反反复复,摩擦持续升温。此次调查成为2010年之后美国依据"301条款"对中国展开的第六次调查,势必会对中美贸易产生重大影响。虽然"301条款"被国际社会诟病,但美国依然热衷于此,是"美国优先"以及逐渐凸显的单边主义思想所致。因此,为了保护我国国民利益,同时维护现有的良好国际经济秩序,对美国"301调查"制裁措施我国不能妥协也不能让步。中美贸易冲突不断升级,中国在采取反制措施的同时更要密切关注国内的人民币汇率等金融领域,企业更要有所准备,做好全面的应对措施。     

美国贸易法301条款的修订及其启示

美国贸易法301条款是一项可以单方启动调查并认定他国法律、政策、行为违反协定或者不公平继而实施报复制裁的对外贸易措施,分为普通301条款、特别301条款与超级301条款。301条款最初简明规定了总统的权力和国会的否认权,但其后的修订对301条款的内容进行了扩展并使其更具体化。特别是301条款根据《2015年贸易便捷和贸易促进法》做出重大修改,涵盖了WTO体系尚未涵盖但最近已纳入自贸协定的新领域。然而,这些针对外国贸易活动的单方决定和措施附加等至今备受争议,且已对强调多边贸易争端解决的WTO体系构成严重威胁。美国贸易法301条款的修订主要围绕着美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)的措施、决定、对外国政府相关政策的监督、确认贸易自由化的优先顺序以及知识产权不适当保护的应对等内容进行。针对美国不断启动的301条款调查,我国应与美国积极开展沟通与协商,加强与美国产业界的接触和交流,发挥全球化程度高的企业的作用,力争以谈话和谈判化解矛盾;促进产业转型升级,重新审视“走出去”战略;履行加入WTO时的承诺,完善全方位的开放体制;合理拓展中国企业的海外利益,完善风险防范机制。